February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Benjamin Yakul]

The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.

[txsnowmaker]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

[Kingwood36]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

I think 1" but don't quote me on that let someone else answer lol

[DoctorMu]

The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.

An anti-Arctite.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The hell season of late Spring and Summer isn't too far around the corner. They can take their anti-American, anti-Winter jive and go sit this one out.

[Kingwood36]

The hell season of late Spring and Summer isn't too far around the corner. They can take their anti-American, anti-Winter jive and go sit this one out.

Yes lawd! Plz give all of se texas this one before hell sets in🥵

[DoctorMu]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

[Belmer]

The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.

That's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecasters there well. They'll always steer on the side of caution when it comes to hard freezes/mix precip down this way unless it's less than 3 days out with high confidence. Always best to be conservative when making those type of forecast down here along the coast, especially with models handling this setup very poorly, as is such with a shallow arctic airmass.

Also... you sure do have a lot of accounts you login from.


IMO, chances look relatively high (>60%) for some form of winter precip on President's Day. However, likely mainly in the form of sleet/freezing rain. Snow would be much nicer though. With that said, confidence looks high there will be a pretty deep snowpack building to our north and the pattern still looks pretty volatile through the rest of the month so anymore shots of cold air won't be as modified. Though I don't put much stock into what is going on beyond 3-4 days right now.

[txsnowmaker]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

Excellent. Thanks for sharing!

[Belmer]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

Be careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as there's a shallow layer below freezing at the surface.

18z Feb 15.png

00z Feb 16.png

[biggerbyte]

NWS, Houston is just not buying into any of this "major weather event". Yes some chilly temps with a slight chance of non frozen precip. We are viewing all of these impressive looking models in this forum, but they have to be looking at something different that says not happening.

[Guptamaja]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

Be careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as there's a shallow layer below freezing at the surface.

18z Feb 15.png


00z Feb 16.png

Blake said the air looks to be deeper than expected. and he is a pro met at khou. the shortwave's upper level cold air will cool the air column and minimize ice.

[don]

NWS, Houston is just not buying into any of this "major weather event". Yes some chilly temps with a slight chance of non frozen precip. We are viewing all of these impressive looking models in this forum, but they have to be looking at something different that says not happening.

That's not true at all...the NWS is always cautious when it comes to winter precip events. They even mention the possibility of watch's or warnings next week in their discussion this afternoon.They will become more bullish once we get within 72 hours of the event. That's pretty much always how they handle winter storms around here. For example in the 2018 sleet storm they never even issued winter storm watches, and only issued a winter storm warning/advisories for most of the area the day before the storm.

[Cpv17]

The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.

That's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecasters there well. They'll always steer on the side of caution when it comes to hard freezes/mix precip down this way unless it's less than 3 days out with high confidence. Always best to be conservative when making those type of forecast down here along the coast, especially with models handling this setup very poorly, as is such with a shallow arctic airmass.

Also... you sure do have a lot of accounts you login from.


IMO, chances look relatively high (>60%) for some form of winter precip on President's Day. However, likely mainly in the form of sleet/freezing rain. Snow would be much nicer though. With that said, confidence looks high there will be a pretty deep snowpack building to our north and the pattern still looks pretty volatile through the rest of the month so anymore shots of cold air won't be as modified. Though I don't put much stock into what is going on beyond 3-4 days right now.

Hell, 3-4 days is probably pushing it lol I can’t even trust most models right now 12 hours out.

[Ptarmigan]

I imagine what it is like to forecast back in February 1895 or February 1899.

[DoctorMu]

Oh, boy.

Be careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as there's a shallow layer below freezing at the surface.

18z Feb 15.png


00z Feb 16.png

Blake said the air looks to be deeper than expected. and he is a pro met at khou. the shortwave's upper level cold air will cool the air column and minimize ice.

That will be the key. The cold core is all we needed for 5-6 inches of snow on January 10th. Having the cold air in place for days before the precip doesn't hurt either.

It is likely for there to be a considerable gradient for snow/ice somewhere in the Houston area.

We better hope that HOU doesn't see a lot of freezing rain/sleet on Monday. With so many elevated roads and hours, possibly day(s) of subfreezing temps. What a disaster that would be.

[DoctorMu]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

[Stormlover2020]

This air is way colder!!!!

[harp]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

What was January 10th?

[Kingwood36]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

What was January 10th?

Where everything was NORTH of a certain hwy