February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[DoctorMu]

I think the NAM will offer up a more realistic idea of what temperatures we may see. Arctic air is tricky and may be colder than models are advertising. Although I do find it strange that the GFS was so cold with "only" a 1047 mb high over the northern plains. Seems lightweight. We've pushed our daytime highs into the low to mid 30s for the weekend and Monday but that may be too bullish. May have to inch them back up.

Like Blake said The Nam is a good positive model

NAM has today's front stalling just south of Houston until the reinforcing surge on Friday.

[djmike]

Just to be safe, Im getting ready to prep like its another 89 or 97. It’s happened before so it will happen again eventually. This weekend? Maybe maybe not. The one thing we do know is it will be cOld 🥶. Better safe than sorry.

[DoctorMu]

One thing to keep in mind, there will be snow (and ice) on the ground and below freezing from the Dakotas down to OKC by Saturday. The arctic street will be "freshly paved" enhancing the albedo effect.

Ice and wintry mix in DFW begins NOW and continues for the remainder of the week.

[jasons2k]

Front crossing Lake Conroe. On the move. And you can see the clouds behind the front pushing south in earnest. Folks, I think the dam has broken and I don’t see Blake raising anything.

[kirk51]

I think the models are trying to underestimate the coldness of the air and they dont have a grasp on the deepness. My gut tells me temperatures will bust and be colder than predicted mainly because of snow cover and cold ground to our north. My gut also says the models are over estimating the warm nose aloft. aloft,, there will be upper level cold core low pressure systems called shortwaves,,this is simply cold air circulating in the upper atmosphere. the air column will be colder than what the models are trying to push.

[DoctorMu]

Front has reached Tomball and the 290/99 exchange, unfazed by Hwy Lucy...

[christinac2016]

This is not the main front is it?

[Kingwood36]

This is not the main front is it?

No the leading edge of bigger things to come

[djmike]

Front may make it to the coast at that rate...

[kirk51]

Front has reached Tomball and the 290/99 exchange, unfazed by Hwy Lucy..
[/qWXMAN5
WXMAN57 Will be holding a funeral for Highway 1^5.

[Kingwood36]

Damn..

[txbear]

I’m tracking the front with Hi-Res visible satellite images. It shows-up nicely on Satellite.

One other thing about the this morning’s loop is you can see the smokestacks near the ship channel. But there is a bright white one also right near Jersey Village (not sure what that is). You can also see a few white dots with plumes in the counties to the SW as well.

Yep saw that as well. Luckily the overcast layer is thin enough to spot those plumes along with the front which looks like an avalanche of cold barreling this way. Arctic Way is primed and open for business. 18F in OKC with mid 20s from the panhandle/South Plains on eastward with Freezing Fog and Winter Weather Advisories up across portions of the state.

Read where 1989 was the last time Lubbock dipped below 0, and they'll be getting close come this weekend. Yep, definitely feeling less tropiKally here.

[DoctorMu]

Damn..

Yep. Ensembles bringing it cold and wet.

[kirk51]

Damn..

Yep. Ensembles bringing it cold and wet.

We don't need cold and wet. We need cold and frozen. I still say these models aren't accounting for the upstream snow cover and ice on the ground. i also still say the warm nose is over estimated. the models also aren't taking into account the cold air in the upper level shortwaves. The models,i feel, are trying to make the air column too warm.

[DoctorMu]

I’m tracking the front with Hi-Res visible satellite images. It shows-up nicely on Satellite.

One other thing about the this morning’s loop is you can see the smokestacks near the ship channel. But there is a bright white one also right near Jersey Village (not sure what that is). You can also see a few white dots with plumes in the counties to the SW as well.

Yep saw that as well. Luckily the overcast layer is thin enough to spot those plumes along with the front which looks like an avalanche of cold barreling this way. Arctic Way is primed and open for business. 18F in OKC with mid 20s from the panhandle/South Plains on eastward with Freezing Fog and Winter Weather Advisories up across portions of the state.

Read where 1989 was the last time Lubbock dipped below 0, and they'll be getting close come this weekend. Yep, definitely feeling less tropiKally here.

Band 3 and 8 show up nicely on the front. Lots of overrunning clouds, not surprisingly.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Kingwood36]

Damn..

Yep. Ensembles bringing it cold and wet.

We don't need cold and wet. We need cold and frozen. I still say these models aren't accounting for the upstream snow cover and ice on the ground. i also still say the warm nose is over estimated. the models also aren't taking into account the cold air in the upper level shortwaves. The models,i feel, are trying to make the air column too warm.

Ugh, cold and wet means frozen..its showing that

[DoctorMu]

Damn..

Yep. Ensembles bringing it cold and wet.

We don't need cold and wet. We need cold and frozen. I still say these models aren't accounting for the upstream snow cover and ice on the ground. i also still say the warm nose is over estimated. the models also aren't taking into account the cold air in the upper level shortwaves. The models,i feel, are trying to make the air column too warm.

Well below 32°F, a breakpoint for the phase of H2O...and look at the maps

[kirk51]

Yep. Ensembles bringing it cold and wet.

We don't need cold and wet. We need cold and frozen. I still say these models aren't accounting for the upstream snow cover and ice on the ground. i also still say the warm nose is over estimated. the models also aren't taking into account the cold air in the upper level shortwaves. The models,i feel, are trying to make the air column too warm.

Well below 32°F, a breakpoint for the phase of H2O...and look at the maps

At this point, surface temps arent going to be the frozen precip problem, they will be cold enough. The argument is about the temperatures above the ground and i feel the warm nose is overestimated and it will be snuffled out by the upper level cold core air of the shortwaves.

[DoctorMu]

We don't need cold and wet. We need cold and frozen. I still say these models aren't accounting for the upstream snow cover and ice on the ground. i also still say the warm nose is over estimated. the models also aren't taking into account the cold air in the upper level shortwaves. The models,i feel, are trying to make the air column too warm.

Well below 32°F, a breakpoint for the phase of H2O...and look at the maps

At this point, surface temps arent going to be the frozen precip problem, they will be cold enough. The argument is about the temperatures above the ground and i feel the warm nose is overestimated and it will be snuffled out by the upper level cold core air of the shortwaves.

You just shifted the goal posts...speaking of which

Any TropiKal or AZ cousins??

DFTT

[don]

12z Euro got a lot more potent with next weeks storm.It looks to still be too slow with the front though.12z UKMET now also is onboard with a storm with widespread temps below freezing across the state, with plenty of precip moving in.