February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[djmike]

Please forgive my ignorance. Is there somewhere to look at LIVE Frontal locations? Instead of an updated map that shows the location every 3 hours? Thanks in advance.

Wundermaps on Weather Underground provides personal weather station information that updates "live". It's a helpful tool to monitor wind shifts and temperatures.

Cool. Thanks Srain!

[txsnowmaker]

Icon with euro now

Meaning what?

[Kingwood36]

Poof our storm is gone

[DavidH]

Front has passed Brenham and nearing Hempstead at this time.

I just wanted to say Srain, we miss you round these parts!!!

Amen!

[don]

The storm is still there its just sleet instead of snow now,as the ICON on tropical tidbits doesn't show sleet or freezing for some reason.The ICON is decently warmer though, it seem the models are starting to converge.

[Kingwood36]

zICON much warmer for South Texas...Sunday has low 40s to upper 30s and Monday highs in the mid 50s.

[weatherguy425]

Poof our storm is gone

Too soon to put a lot of stock in individual model swings. We're seeing big differences among even hi-res short-range models that tend to do "better" in these setups. Many more swings are likely going forward; both with the duration and magnitude of cold air, as well as timing and placement of approaching disturbances.

[don]

GFS has been getting slightly more aggressive with each model run on next weeks storm.

[jasons2k]

I’m tracking the front with Hi-Res visible satellite images. It shows-up nicely on Satellite.

One other thing about the this morning’s loop is you can see the smokestacks near the ship channel. But there is a bright white one also right near Jersey Village (not sure what that is). You can also see a few white dots with plumes in the counties to the SW as well.

[Cromagnum]

zICON much warmer for South Texas...Sunday has low 40s to upper 30s and Monday highs in the mid 50s.

I knew it. Seasonal cold on the way.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs looks nice

[cperk]

Poof our storm is gone

Too soon to put a lot of stock in individual model swings. We're seeing big differences among even hi-res short-range models that tend to do "better" in these setups. Many more swings are likely going forward; both with the duration and magnitude of cold air, as well as timing and placement of approaching disturbances.

Thanks for the explanation you would think that by now that most on this board should know not to do that.

[DoctorMu]

Temps busting to the downside.

DFW wasn’t supposed to get below freezing until late this week.

Get ready for the models to overshoot temps.

Looks likes it moving a little faster than the models predicted also

That's typically for models to undersell speed and depth of the cold. FWIW, from my seat the Canadian has had the best track record this winter.

[Kingwood36]

Poof our storm is gone

Too soon to put a lot of stock in individual model swings. We're seeing big differences among even hi-res short-range models that tend to do "better" in these setups. Many more swings are likely going forward; both with the duration and magnitude of cold air, as well as timing and placement of approaching disturbances.

Thanks for the explanation you would think that by now that most on this board should know not to do that.

My bad still learning...

[DoctorMu]

The front is already on the northern fringes of our viewing area. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see it down to the I-10 corridor at some point today unless it just stalls out.

Looks like its just a tad north of Austin but ya I could see it getting here 2 days earlier then what theu said on tv about it coming in Thursday

Look at the temperature in College Station right now and then just look a few miles south of there in Navasota.

Today had been predicted to be in the mid 70s. lol

[weatherguy425]

Too soon to put a lot of stock in individual model swings. We're seeing big differences among even hi-res short-range models that tend to do "better" in these setups. Many more swings are likely going forward; both with the duration and magnitude of cold air, as well as timing and placement of approaching disturbances.

Thanks for the explanation you would think that by now that most on this board should know not to do that.

My bad still learning...

No worries at all Great group of weather-loving folks here.

[txsnowmaker]

12z GFS still showing snow over the entire state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_28.png

[kirk51]

I think the NAM will offer up a more realistic idea of what temperatures we may see. Arctic air is tricky and may be colder than models are advertising. Although I do find it strange that the GFS was so cold with "only" a 1047 mb high over the northern plains. Seems lightweight. We've pushed our daytime highs into the low to mid 30s for the weekend and Monday but that may be too bullish. May have to inch them back up.

Like Blake said The Nam is a good positive model

[DoctorMu]

GFS has been getting slightly more aggressive with each model run on next weeks storm.

Canadian still bringing the cold and snow. 10°F, 10°F, and 6°F lows on consecutive nights.

[Kingwood36]

GFS has been getting slightly more aggressive with each model run on next weeks storm.

Canadian still bringing the cold and snow. 10°F, 10°F, and 6°F lows on consecutive nights.

So right now its looking more ice/sleet then snow right