Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[wxman57]

18z GFS has a general track towards the Upper Texas Coast

I wouldn't be suprised if this ends up riding the path straight into Mexico. The seasonal trend is your friend, and a large upper high still exists across the SE. If the models try to break down this ridge, it is likely in error as models have been way to generous with troughs traversing the Northern States...

You looking at the old GFS or the new version? New GFS breaks the ridge down way faster than the old GFS, more in line with the Canadian and EC:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Impressive MCS this afternoon wasn't it wxman57? Certainly more impressive than this morning IMO.

[biggerbyte]

Scott, you are nothing more than a trouble maker and an instigator. Learn what the word huge means, and the difference between it and none. You take my words and twist them to feed your lack of common sense. You must lead a really sad, pathetic existance as you go around the forums harrassing folks.

Now, I told you last year to stop harrassing me. This time I am warning you. I should not pay attention to your rediculous behavior, but for some reason you pi$$ me greatly.

Moderators???? Do I need to can this tuna myself?

[Hardcoreweather]

[Scott747]

Scott, you are nothing more than a trouble maker and an instigator. Learn what the word huge means, and the difference between it and none. You take my words and twist them to feed your lack of common sense. You must lead a really sad, pathetic existance as you go around the forums harrassing folks.

Now, I told you last year to stop harrassing me. This time I am warning you. I should not pay attention to your rediculous behavior, but for some reason you pi$$ me greatly.

Moderators???? Do I need to can this tuna myself?

You made a incredibly irresponsible statement and I just responded. You know, sorta how discussion boards work. Your problem is being questioned when you are wrong and being corrected. Again your words spoke for themselves.

As far as me being a 'trouble maker' and 'instigator.' I only frequent three tropical boards. Eastern which I mainly post at because my chasing partner calls it home and have developed a reputation of being one of the better tropical posters there. S2K which I have been a respected member for years and despite my minimal postings, currently have a continuing and cordial relationship with many of the mods and members there and have continued to interact with many because of the interest in the chasing I do with Josh. The local board (KHOU) which I have the most interest in providing the most relevant and factual information along with decent amateur analysis given that I'm a old school Texan and consider everyone in the area my fellow neighbors.

Not once have I become unhinged or acted like a drama queen and stomped my feet with anyone that has a opposing view of what I may post or threatened another poster.

Perhaps it is you that has more of a issue....

Now back to 97l.

[wxdata]

Everyone, this board was created so weather info and ideas could be exchanged without a lot of drama. The moderators of this board fully recognize the wide range of personalities leading to a wide range of opinions. One opinion is no less correct or incorrect as the next. If you don't agree with a person's post, that's fine. I'm sure there are people on this board that disagree with some of my posts. That's OK. I get it, but when the discussion begins to reach into the mud, we must put the reign on things. Some may disagree that we the moderators don't step in sooner, but our philosophy is to enjoy the exchange of ideas. This is directed at no one in particular, but if you can't play nice in the sandbox, please take your toys and go elsewhere.

[Hardcoreweather]

00Z runs and don't feed the trolls

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... df4974.jpg

[Mr. T]

I don't know T. Seems far enough N that the axis should at least keep gaining some lat as it progresses westward with the flow I looked at earlier.

That's true. I suppose I'm banking on the models yet again being way too overzealous in breaking down upper heights across the South... I guess we'll see if the westerly / southerly trend continues with this invest. I really don't see any features in the flow aloft that would break down the persistent ridge across the SE to allow this storm to turn north before at least 90°W

[Mr. T]

You looking at the old GFS or the new version?

I was referring to the "old" GFS.

00Z runs and don't feed the trolls

Thanks for the useless tidbit. You must not know the meaning of the word "troll".

Scott and BB were just sharing each other's opinion on a tender subject. Nobody was trolling

[Hardcoreweather]

[Scott747]

Current multiplatform analysis. Seems reasonable with location of the energy and overall pressure. Still has awhile to go before working down to the surface.

[sleetstorm]

You looking at the old GFS or the new version?

I was referring to the "old" GFS.

00Z runs and don't feed the trolls

Thanks for the useless tidbit. You must not know the meaning of the word "troll".

Scott and BB were just sharing each other's opinion on a tender subject. Nobody was trolling

Of course noone was trolling or instigating anyone, Mr. T. Scott747 and biggerbyte were simply being childish with their annotations to each other. Or at least one of them was. Thank you wxdata for setting them straight by reminding them, as well as everyone else on this weather forum, about the imperativeness of being respectful and understanding to each other and their posts on this weather forum.

[Hardcoreweather]

00Z runs and don't feed the trolls

Thanks for the useless tidbit. You must not know the meaning of the word "troll".

Scott and BB were just sharing each other's opinion on a tender subject. Nobody was trolling[/quote]

I was telling people not to feed you and you took the bait Now back to 97L

[Scott747]

0z parallel develops it a bit quicker than previous runs through 48 hours -

[Mr. T]

I was telling people not to feed you and you took the bait Now back to 97L

You've been on these forums for almost 5 years now, and I don't think at any point have you ever been coherent enough to hold a conversation with. Once again, I have no idea what you are trying to convey here...

You should post another outdated model map from your awful website just to spam on this forum your awful website

[cisa]

Having trouble decyphering through the grumbling ...Just looking at the models, this looks to be something to watch. What time frame are we looking at and do you guys have an opinion on our odds (knowing this is really early in the game I mean). Thanks guys!

[Andrew]

Everyone let's chill we are getting nowhere fighting and setting a bad reputation for the forum. Everyone here is a great contributer and let's keep it that way. Come on guys we are better than this.

[Andrew]

Having trouble decyphering through the grumbling ...Just looking at the models, this looks to be something to watch. What time frame are we looking at and do you guys have an opinion on our odds (knowing this is really early in the game I mean). Thanks guys!

It is hard to really say some models really slow the storm
Down while others don't. Just check in over the week and we should have a better idea.

[cisa]

Having trouble decyphering through the grumbling ...Just looking at the models, this looks to be something to watch. What time frame are we looking at and do you guys have an opinion on our odds (knowing this is really early in the game I mean). Thanks guys!

It is hard to really say some models really slow the storm
Down while others don't. Just check in over the week and we should have a better idea.

Thanks Andrew. I know that noone really knows yet, but tis the season and I have an elderly mom I look after so I try to stay ahead so to speak. Thanks again.

[Andrew]

Having trouble decyphering through the grumbling ...Just looking at the models, this looks to be something to watch. What time frame are we looking at and do you guys have an opinion on our odds (knowing this is really early in the game I mean). Thanks guys!

It is hard to really say some models really slow the storm
Down while others don't. Just check in over the week and we should have a better idea.

Thanks Andrew. I know that noone really knows yet, but tis the season and I have an elderly mom I look after so I try to stay ahead so to speak. Thanks again.

A more specific timeline would be sometime in the middle of next week I would say.