February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[danmaloney]

If you have a high pressure system of that size coming into Montana, sorry, But Houston wont get out of the 30's, I am looking only for positive data, nothing negative. My first concern is preventing the cold air from "going east" or "sliding east". Now we need to concentrate on doing something to get moisture in with that air. We need hope.

[TexasMetBlake]

Looks like 12z GFS has now joined the CMC and Euro. No 1062 mega high. Cold here in Texas but nothing 'extreme' like the GFS and CMC showed yesterday.

[danmaloney]

I refuse to model hug and live and die with each run. Nowcasting is more accurate.

[Kingwood36]

Wxman57 says its going to east and only a light freeze in houston next week...figures

[danmaloney]

The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".

[DoctorMu]

The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".

It's strange seeing Canadian and GFS go full eastward blows today. Ohio and WV get crushed.

One guarantee: Tonight and tomorrow's model runs will be different. How? we just don't know.

[srainhoutx]

The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".

Wrong AZ. Your Greenland "block" retrogrades into the Arctic/Northern Canada next week. The SE "ridge" is and has not happened all winter. The myth of the SE Ridge has failed repeatedly in the various computer schemes in the medium/long range and the ground truth in my backyard.

[don]

I am a little more concerned with the possibility of a icing event late next week than i am with any potential "extreme" cold air over southeast Texas. As many of the 12z GFS ensembles and 12z CMC,12z ICON, still show a prolonged overrunning setup with freezing temps at the surface over the area.As a surface low develops in the gulf flinging moisture over top the cold air at the surface.

[danmaloney]

Wait until the high pressure system is located above montana. when that happens, look at its position. That will determine if anything " goes east".

[Cpv17]

The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".

It's strange seeing Canadian and GFS go full eastward blows today. Ohio and WV get crushed.

One guarantee: Tonight and tomorrow's model runs will be different. How? we just don't know.

Seriously? That freaking sucks! I haven’t had a chance to look at any models yet today.

[don]

12z EURO also slowly trending towards an ice storm setup late next week fwiw.

[Kingwood36]

12z EURO also slowly trending towards an ice storm setup late next week fwiw.

Around here or north of hwy105?

[don]

Most of the models that show an icing event show most of southeast Texas getting frozen precipitation. But we still have a long ways to go before we can have any confidence on how next week may unfold.

[don]

Looking at the 12z Euro in more detail it actually shows significant accumulations of ice along and north of the i-59 corridor. And after the ice storm temperatures stay below freezing through the weekend. But again very far out so alot will change.

[sambucol]

Any idea what it looks like for the duration of freezing? I’m trying to prepare my home for this. Rewrapping pipes etc.

[danmaloney]

12z EURO also slowly trending towards an ice storm setup late next week fwiw.

Around here or north of hwy105?

the terms high way 105 and going east should be banned

[djmike]

Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA

[Kingwood36]

Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA

[danmaloney]

Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA

why is there such a large hole west of houston?

[Kingwood36]

Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA

why is there such a large hole west of houston?

Don't take that map as gospel it will change multiple times from now