January 2021

[Kingwood36]

Cmc has shifted south!!

How far? Have a image

[Stormlover2020]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11000&fh=6

[txsnowmaker]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11000&fh=6

We’ll need it to shift further south than that for Houston to get in on the fun.

[Belmer]

When you mention the possibility of heavy wet snow for “Houston,” are you referring to the city itself or other areas outside city limits like Cypress, Tomball, etc?

The images I posted was about a ~40 mile diameter center plotted in downtown Houston depicting the thermal profile with a saturated lower and mid level column. It's showing a near 0C thermal profile from about 960mb on up. The radar presentation itself shows 'green' in the form of rain but the generated sounding would indicate more of a heavy wet snow mixing in with the cold rain. I'm not saying the GFS is right, just pointing out the further southern trend along with a cooler upper level environment. South of I-10 has a slim chance of seeing much but trends are favoring a greater chance that somewhere along I-10 from Columbus to Baytown may see some snow.

[txsnowmaker]

When you mention the possibility of heavy wet snow for “Houston,” are you referring to the city itself or other areas outside city limits like Cypress, Tomball, etc?

The images I posted was about a ~40 mile diameter center plotted in downtown Houston depicting the thermal profile with a saturated lower and mid level column. It's showing a near 0C thermal profile from about 960mb on up. The radar presentation itself shows 'green' in the form of rain but the generated sounding would indicate more of a heavy wet snow mixing in with the cold rain. I'm not saying the GFS is right, just pointing out the further southern trend along with a cooler upper level environment. South of I-10 has a slim chance of seeing much but trends are favoring a greater chance that somewhere along I-10 from Columbus to Baytown may see some snow.

Excellent. Many thanks for all the details.

[txsnowmaker]

With all the shifting further south over the last 24 hours I’m going to hold out hope that we have continued shifts south overnight and into afternoon and some unexpected surprises tomorrow.

[Rip76]

Rain starting shortly.

[Kingwood36]

With all the shifting further south over the last 24 hours I’m going to hold out hope that we have continued shifts south overnight and into afternoon and some unexpected surprises tomorrow.

Yes sir! The southern trends are encouraging for us south of i-10er's

[Andrew]

HRRR is a little more aggressive with cold air digging further south quicker. Not a ton of wet bulbing but HRRR shows more than before.

[Cpv17]

HRRR is a little more aggressive with cold air digging further south quicker. Not a ton of wet bulbing but HRRR shows more than before.

We still have a long ways to go with this one. Definitely expecting more changes.

[Andrew]

HRRR is a little more aggressive with cold air digging further south quicker. Not a ton of wet bulbing but HRRR shows more than before.

We still have a long ways to go with this one. Definitely expecting more changes.

Yea always a tricky scenario for these type of events. Luckily surface temps still look to stay above freezing.

[txsnowmaker]

HRRR is a little more aggressive with cold air digging further south quicker. Not a ton of wet bulbing but HRRR shows more than before.

We still have a long ways to go with this one. Definitely expecting more changes.

Yea always a tricky scenario for these type of events. Luckily surface temps still look to stay above freezing.

I’d like those surface temps to lower a bit too. It’s been 32 years since we had snow accumulate to any significant degree here in Houston.

[Cpv17]

We still have a long ways to go with this one. Definitely expecting more changes.

Yea always a tricky scenario for these type of events. Luckily surface temps still look to stay above freezing.

I’d like those surface temps to lower a bit too. It’s been 32 years since we had snow accumulate to any significant degree here in Houston.

There’s still plenty of time for that to happen.

[don]

Latest HRRR brings the frozen precip line into Harris county with plenty of moisture still moving through.

[Cpv17]

Something that hasn’t been mentioned, but wind chills are going to be in the 20’s with this system. Maybe into the teens in some places.

[Cpv17]

Wow at the latest HRRR for Harris County!

[don]

Yes! The latest HRRR is very interesting.

[Belmer]

00z Euro says lets hop onto the southern trend..

Poor Dallas folks. While I hope we see some snow (the only thing daytime highs in the 30s are good for), I feel for them as it was looking like a blockbuster event up there for them. Unfortunately the ULL is further south and west by a notch and this will likely rob them of any banding of snow. Maybe 1-2" up there if trajectory of systems stays on course.

ecmwf-deterministic-tx-total_snow_10to1-0370000.png

[don]

Models have trended a lot more to the south with the gulf low over the last 24 hours.I'm starting to feel pretty confident that there will be snow as far south as the 59 corridor tomorrow. And maybe even brief heavy snow as far south as I-10.

[DoctorMu]

Rain starting shortly.

Rain started here about an hour ago. The column is starting to cool down.