That’s almost right over my house. I’m gonna sit at work and wait for it to pass over before I head home. Not driving in that mess.
January 2021
That severe thunderstorm is right over my house at the moment. Headed towards Fort Bend County next. Will have to check the rain gauge and check for damage when I get home. Supposed to have 60mph winds with that storm.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Well brenham has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Sunday night
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
427 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
As the surface cold front and associated weak surface low departs
tomorrow, a period of cool, clear, and dry weather is anticipated
through the remainder of the week end into the early part of the
weekend as broad surface high pressure becomes the dominant synoptic
feature across the central CONUS. In general, afternoon highs will
remain in the mid to upper 50s through Saturday with overnight lows
in the upper 30s to low 40s. Light north to northeasterly winds
should remain near or below 10 miles per hour.
Though there continues to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding
its development, the main story in the extended period continues to
be the formation of a coastal low on Sunday which could result in
the first instance of wintry precipitation in the greater Houston
area in approximately two years. As an upper trough dips into the
Four Corners region by Late Saturday, its associated jet streak will
provide sufficient upper-level divergence to support deepening low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf, with global guidance indicating
the formation of a closed low on Sunday. As has been the case in
recent months, the GFS deterministic solution remains more
progressive than the EC solution, though the 18Z run has started to
come into better agreement with the slower EC. Given the track
record of the EC in similar events recently, have generally sided
with its solution for this forecast package.
While the precipitation type forecast remains quite messy for Sunday
as the developing surface low pushes towards the central Gulf, there
have been consistent indications over the past 48 hours that support
the possibility of a mixed phase precipitation event during the
overnight hours across the northern/northwestern zones. With 850mb
temps remaining in the vicinity of -2 to -3 degC, total PWs rising
to the vicinity of 1 inch, and forecast soundings indicating a well-
saturated profile, have decided to include rain and snow showers in
the forecast between 00Z and 12Z Monday (Sunday night CST). While
there`s still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this
situation, the possibility of wintry precipitation during this time
is on the increase.
As the coastal low tracks further eastward, clearer and drier
conditions are anticipated by Monday afternoon which should persist
into mid-week.
Cady
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
427 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
As the surface cold front and associated weak surface low departs
tomorrow, a period of cool, clear, and dry weather is anticipated
through the remainder of the week end into the early part of the
weekend as broad surface high pressure becomes the dominant synoptic
feature across the central CONUS. In general, afternoon highs will
remain in the mid to upper 50s through Saturday with overnight lows
in the upper 30s to low 40s. Light north to northeasterly winds
should remain near or below 10 miles per hour.
Though there continues to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding
its development, the main story in the extended period continues to
be the formation of a coastal low on Sunday which could result in
the first instance of wintry precipitation in the greater Houston
area in approximately two years. As an upper trough dips into the
Four Corners region by Late Saturday, its associated jet streak will
provide sufficient upper-level divergence to support deepening low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf, with global guidance indicating
the formation of a closed low on Sunday. As has been the case in
recent months, the GFS deterministic solution remains more
progressive than the EC solution, though the 18Z run has started to
come into better agreement with the slower EC. Given the track
record of the EC in similar events recently, have generally sided
with its solution for this forecast package.
While the precipitation type forecast remains quite messy for Sunday
as the developing surface low pushes towards the central Gulf, there
have been consistent indications over the past 48 hours that support
the possibility of a mixed phase precipitation event during the
overnight hours across the northern/northwestern zones. With 850mb
temps remaining in the vicinity of -2 to -3 degC, total PWs rising
to the vicinity of 1 inch, and forecast soundings indicating a well-
saturated profile, have decided to include rain and snow showers in
the forecast between 00Z and 12Z Monday (Sunday night CST). While
there`s still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this
situation, the possibility of wintry precipitation during this time
is on the increase.
As the coastal low tracks further eastward, clearer and drier
conditions are anticipated by Monday afternoon which should persist
into mid-week.
Cady
That line of storms was no joke.
CMC, Euro, and
CMC, Euro, and
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Went from nothing to a solid wall of rain in 5 seconds. Never seen anything like this.
1.5” here. That makes 9.9” in one week.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Found out after the fact that the wind ripped a set of fake wooden shutters right off the front of our house.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Is this the low for us to get snow or is the the low expect to develop in the gulf that gives us a chance?
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That Upper level low is what triggers the development of the surface low in the gulf. There kind of one in the same so to speak.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Models are trending stronger with this weekends storm system.Which isn't the best for us down here as that introduces more warm air advection making it harder to get snow here.But it also does produce more precipitation here at least.The one good thing is that it also makes the cold core colder which means if the cold core can track over your area you can still get snow with this setup. But that would be highly dependent on the strength and track of the cold core.The 0z GFS does show an opportunity for a changeover on the backside of the storm over southeast Texas. But like usual it probably wont be until we get within 48 hours before we know for sure if we'll have snow down here or not.
It looks like it has slowed down some over the past few model runs and has deepened. Someone could get several inches of snow or rain with the way it’s trending.don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:22 pm Models are trending stronger with this weekends storm system.Which isn't the best for us down here as that introduces more warm air advection making it harder to get snow here.But it also does produce more precipitation here at least.The one good thing is that it also makes the cold core colder which means if the cold core can track over your area you can still get snow with this setup. But that would be highly dependent on the strength and track of the cold core.The 0z GFS does show an opportunity for a changeover on the backside of the storm over southeast Texas. But like usual it probably wont be until we get within 48 hours before we know for sure if we'll have snow down here or not.
If anyone’s interested, looking past this weekends system, the GFS is looking pretty good with several shots of cold air coming down from western Canada.
The 0z Euro is oh so close to a major snowstorm down here. Qpf amounts are definitely on the rise.
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TXWeatherMan
- Posts: 154
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am
- Location: Lake Conroe, TX
- Contact:
The 0z Euro has a very light dusting for Conroe.
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TXWeatherMan
- Posts: 154
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am
- Location: Lake Conroe, TX
- Contact:
ThanksCpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:52 amThe 0z Euro has a very light dusting for Conroe.