Come on man don’t leave us hanging.
November 2020
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Kinda like how you beg for the cold, hmmmMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:20 pmI know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims
Yeah, just saw that.
Found a Mischief triangle from Bryan to Austin to Waco. Entertaining at this point! Shades of 2017.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
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- Location: Weimar, TX
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Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state....tropiKal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:47 pmKinda like how you beg for the cold, hmmmMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:20 pmI know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims
I do believe that, overall, this winter will be mild, but these types of Winter are typically good (better than 50/50 odds) for a couple or three solid cold outbreaks. I don’t have to go back far, at all, to show what a Winter like this looks like.
These types of Winter are more predictable than your weak Niño, or at least they have been since I’ve been following the mechanics of Winter forecasting in my adult years.
If you put a over/under on number of freezes this winter, I’d put it at 8.5 for IAH going on the past decade worth of data.
An average Winter gives Harris County, 10 freezes, and my area is about 50% more. I’m handicapping to the down side due to the cycles (3-6 weeks) of a Winter like this.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Team #NeverSummer
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
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Yes it’s very reminiscent of December 2017. Temps in the mid 30s at the surface and very cold upper and mid levels.
Interesting to check back in on this in 3-4 days.
Team #NeverSummer
Too early to tell. We will have to wait and see.
No problems man, it's all understood. I'm actually looking forward to some cold myself: 60s for highs and 40s for lows.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:15 pm Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state.... [snip]
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
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I got a place in Montana to experience the real coldtropiKal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:46 amNo problems man, it's all understood. I'm actually looking forward to some cold myself: 60s for highs and 40s for lows.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:15 pm Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state.... [snip]
However, if I could choose a perfect day where I would enjoy yard work, exercising outside and grilling.... a low of 40 and a high of 60 with a small breeze and sun would be my perfect day.
Team #NeverSummer
Its looking more likely that the area is going to receive some much needed rainfall this weekend.There may even be some minor flooding issues.
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Not anymore,the latest models have shifted more to the south with the area of greatest convergence. Wouldn't be surprised if the WPC moved the higher QPF amounts further south over the coming days.
.LONG TERM [Thanksgiving Day trough Tuesday]...
The long-term forecast for SE Texas continues to be characterized by
a great deal of uncertainty, mainly surrounding the approach of a
second cold frontal boundary that will being a period of unsettled
weather to the area during the upcoming holiday weekend. In the wake
of Wednesday`s cold front passage, surface high pressure behind the
boundary will push quickly to the east and allow for a redevelopment
of onshore flow by Thursday afternoon. Moisture levels should
rapidly recover as a result, with dew points reaching the low to mid
60s at most locations by the evening while total PWs reach the 1.5-
1.75 in by early Friday. These values are unseasonably high for this
time of year, with SPC`s sounding climatology indicating 90th
percentile values for late November of around 1.55 in at nearby RAOB
sites (CRP and LCH). With the return of onshore flow providing
steady WAA, expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (7-
10 degrees above normal for late November). Galveston will be within
striking distance of recording its warmest Thanksgiving on
record...the current record stands at 78 degrees and the forecast
high is 76.
Heading into the weekend, global models continue to show significant
variance in their depictions of a second, stronger frontal passage.
By late Friday, an amplified upper trough/closed low will approach
the central CONUS. The GFS solution continues to be far more
progressive with the aforementioned trough, placing it just north of
the area approximately 24 hours before the ECMWF/Canadian solutions.
At the surface, deepening low pressure associated with this feature
will develop along the western Gulf coast and push northeastward.
With SE Texas sitting between two upper jet streaks (and thereby in
a highly favorable region of 300mb divergence) and given the
aforementioned presence of ample low-level moisture across the area,
prolonged rainfall event is possible on Saturday. Further showers
and thunderstorms will form along the cold front associated with the
advancing surface low as it pushes through the region, potentially
lasting well into Sunday depending on which solution materializes.
The latest GFS places the surface front at the coast by Saturday
afternoon, while the boundary passage in the ECMWF solution does not
do so until early Sunday. Given these significant differences in
timing, it`s still too early to pinpoint specific impacts from this
period of active weather. However, in a general sense, most of the
area should receive steady rainfall during the upcoming weekend
which at times may be locally heavy.
.LONG TERM [Thanksgiving Day trough Tuesday]...
The long-term forecast for SE Texas continues to be characterized by
a great deal of uncertainty, mainly surrounding the approach of a
second cold frontal boundary that will being a period of unsettled
weather to the area during the upcoming holiday weekend. In the wake
of Wednesday`s cold front passage, surface high pressure behind the
boundary will push quickly to the east and allow for a redevelopment
of onshore flow by Thursday afternoon. Moisture levels should
rapidly recover as a result, with dew points reaching the low to mid
60s at most locations by the evening while total PWs reach the 1.5-
1.75 in by early Friday. These values are unseasonably high for this
time of year, with SPC`s sounding climatology indicating 90th
percentile values for late November of around 1.55 in at nearby RAOB
sites (CRP and LCH). With the return of onshore flow providing
steady WAA, expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (7-
10 degrees above normal for late November). Galveston will be within
striking distance of recording its warmest Thanksgiving on
record...the current record stands at 78 degrees and the forecast
high is 76.
Heading into the weekend, global models continue to show significant
variance in their depictions of a second, stronger frontal passage.
By late Friday, an amplified upper trough/closed low will approach
the central CONUS. The GFS solution continues to be far more
progressive with the aforementioned trough, placing it just north of
the area approximately 24 hours before the ECMWF/Canadian solutions.
At the surface, deepening low pressure associated with this feature
will develop along the western Gulf coast and push northeastward.
With SE Texas sitting between two upper jet streaks (and thereby in
a highly favorable region of 300mb divergence) and given the
aforementioned presence of ample low-level moisture across the area,
prolonged rainfall event is possible on Saturday. Further showers
and thunderstorms will form along the cold front associated with the
advancing surface low as it pushes through the region, potentially
lasting well into Sunday depending on which solution materializes.
The latest GFS places the surface front at the coast by Saturday
afternoon, while the boundary passage in the ECMWF solution does not
do so until early Sunday. Given these significant differences in
timing, it`s still too early to pinpoint specific impacts from this
period of active weather. However, in a general sense, most of the
area should receive steady rainfall during the upcoming weekend
which at times may be locally heavy.
WPC has 3.6” right on top of me. I’ll believe that when I see it.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
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Kyle Field is going to be very wet for the Aggie - LSU game. Could be an equalizer.
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