November 2020

[Cpv17]

Eta is looking like a very serious storm. Could potentially impact the Gulf coast as well. Some of the model runs are bombing her out big time in the western Caribbean heading towards the Gulf.

[TexasBreeze]

Don't normally post about systems so far away, but ETA has a satellite estimate of an 8.1 which could mean a sub 900mb system and greater than 180 mph. Unbelievable...

[unome]

Eta is looking like a very serious storm. Could potentially impact the Gulf coast as well. Some of the model runs are bombing her out big time in the western Caribbean heading towards the Gulf.

150 mph & strengthening, this is devastating for Central America, my heart weeps

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Eta

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon
and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within
the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of Eta is
forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin
after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Eta.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi/Papin

[Ptarmigan]

Don't normally post about systems so far away, but ETA has a satellite estimate of an 8.1 which could mean a sub 900mb system and greater than 180 mph. Unbelievable...

I would not be surprised if it is that strong.

[davidiowx]

Eta is insane.. it’s Nov 2nd. Just Wow

[DoctorMu]

Eta is insane.. it’s Nov 2nd. Just Wow

Man, Eta is wound tight. Hope as many escape her path as possible.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS is just plain silly. It’s November! What the heck? Lol

[jasons2k]

From a friend

[tireman4]

What a year. November and STILL landfalling hurricanes. Gracious

[Ptarmigan]

What a year. November and STILL landfalling hurricanes. Gracious

I would not be surprised if we see more storms form into November. November has produced some big storms. Lenny comes to mind.

[DoctorMu]

After a nice stretch, it looks like there will be some A/C over the next few days. In November. Here we go again - another non-winter.

[snowman65]

everyone complaining about the lack of winter...again....you knew it would be this way...again...it's La Nina...it's like knowing months in advance there would be voter fraud...and now it's here lol

[jasons2k]

Temps don’t bother me at all. I’ll take this over freezing. I just want some rain in the forecast - I’m afraid before long we’re gonna see us painted on the USDA drought monitor. I hope this La Nina comes and goes.

[Cromagnum]

When October is supposed to be one of our rainier months and I'm having to drag a sprinkler around its pretty crap.

[DoctorMu]

When October is supposed to be one of our rainier months and I'm having to drag a sprinkler around its pretty crap.

"Fortunately" brown patch despite repeated fungicide apps has taken over a lot of the front years. I'm waving the white flag.

A/C and water bills are ridiculous in the Brazos Valley in the summer. Houston sees a lot more cloud cover, even if it doesn't rain. My wallet needs a rest.

We've had some reinforcing dry air that may keep the A/C from needing significant use.

[Kingwood36]

Well I would like to atleast wear a jacket for 2 weeks this winter..is that to much to ask for?

[jasons2k]

Well I would like to atleast wear a jacket for 2 weeks this winter..is that to much to ask for?

You’ll get to, don’t worry, it’s barely into November

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful warm Fall weekend for SE TX. No concern for TD Eta which will be rainmaker for Florida and the EGOM this weekend and into next week

[tropiKal]

Just give it a decade or two - mangroves will forest the Texas coast, and Houston will be struggling to dip below 55 in winter.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’d rather November be warm than December. In La Niña years, with a cold 1+2 and warm GOA, we usually run cold air in 3-4 week cycles.

Winter should be dry but there will be 2-3 shots of cold air that will dwarf last Winter.

Recently, La Niña delivered our Winter events despite being warmer than average Winters.