September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TXWeatherMan
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Re: September 2020:

Post by TXWeatherMan » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:27 am

Perfect winter weather for me is highs in the 50’s and sunny with lows in the upper 30’s.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020:

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:32 am

I had no complaints until maybe next May as long as severe season cooperates. Keep the sprinklers off and A/C off or running sparingly until then.

Gas heat if needed is cheap.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:04 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Very pleasant fall weather ahead.

High pressure stretches from West Texas into Central Texas this
morning will be settling south throughout the day with deep north
and northwesterly subsident flow aloft which will keep skies clear
and sunny. Winds will increase this morning becoming a little
gusty (less than yesterday) in the 10-20 knot range. After a cool
start expect a quick warm up to take place reaching up into the
78-82 degree range today...dipping down into the 50-55 degree
range followed by high temperatures climbing into the 80-86 degree
range Wednesday and 82-88 Thursday. The coolest morning of the
stretch should be Wednesday morning then a slow warm up gets
underway as well as high pressure drifts east along the coast and
into coastal waters of LA Wednesday night. A s/w moving
southeastward through the area should bring some increase in high
cloudiness but still at least partly cloudy possibly mostly sunny.
Light southeasterly flow will become established in the afternoon
then Thursday back around to the east in advance of the next
northwest flow aloft event and cold front going into early Friday.
45

&&
.LONG TERM [[Friday through Tuesday]...

No major issues expected for the long term as the upper pattern re-
mains dominated by strong ridging out west. This prevailing NW flow
aloft will help to drag a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air into the
area late Thur/early Fri with a second front possible by the latter
part of the weekend or early next week. There shouldn`t be a lot of
time for a return flow to set up...so low-level moisture will remain
rather limited with each of these fronts. And as such, rain chances
will also remain kinda nil for this time frame. Temperatures should
be in the lower to mid 80s Fri/Sat, then warming into the mid/upper
80s Sun/Mon before cooling once again on Tue. Looking further ahead,
significant rain chances might not return to SE TX until maybe late
in the week next week if these latest extended model runs do verify.
41

&&

.MARINE...

The strong/gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front have
decreased over the bays overnight but are continuing over the near/
offshore waters this morning. The Small Craft Advisory will remain
in place for the Gulf waters through early this afternoon with con-
ditions gradually improving during the afternoon(and early evening)
as high pressure finally builds into the region. Light onshore flow
could resume by late tomorrow into Thurs as the high shifts east. A
weak reinforcing cold front should bring light/moderate NE winds by
Fri. Coastal winds will undergo another shift to the E then SE thru
the weekend. 41

&&


&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Northerly winds 5-10 knots with gusts becoming light and
variable after sunset.
45

&&





.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 80 52 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 56 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 68 80 71 82 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/FIRE/AVIATION...45
LONG TERM/MARINE...41

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:45 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291715
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. N winds at around
10 KTS with gusts up to around 20 KTS on occasion today will
decrease to around 5 KTS tonight. Winds will turn west to
southwest Wednesday with sunny skies prevailing. 24

&&

tropiKal
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tropiKal » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:24 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:09 pm
I’m with you 100%...anything below that is pointless unless it’s snowing, and If I wanted that, I’d move to Denver. I say it every year, but there is nothing I can do to control the weather...except retire back in Florida some day.
...Or wait for climate change to really kick in.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020:

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:35 pm

Low last night of 53°F. Dewpoint of 37°F right now. Loving it.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:34 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 300934
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Spectacular early fall weather will continue with dry conditions
and sunny afternoons/clear nights. High pressure centered near
Austin at 08z should slowly drift east today into SETX and tonight
will be over the Upper TX coastal waters and LA coast. Dry NW
flow aloft tonight will drag a weak s/w southeast and a dry
Canadian cold front dips down into SETX late Thursday turning
winds north and northeast. The front should push off the coast by
late Thursday evening. Ridging remains in control through Friday
night yielding more cool and dry weather.
45

&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
With onshore winds progged to be in place, Sat should be a slightly
warmer day. Global models not in great agreement with the next cold
front`s timing but in favoring the ECMWF/Canadian solutions will be
going with FROPA on Sun. Still not expecting much by way of precip-
itation with its passage as low-level moisture remains very limited
for this timeframe. This reinforcing shot of cool/dry air should be
holding into the start of next week with temperatures slowly moder-
ating by mid week. The overall upper pattern for the long-term part
of this forecast looks to stay dominated by strong ridging out west
and a prevailing NW flow aloft across the state. Models appear to be
flattening this amplified pattern around the middle of next week, so
still not expecting any significant rain chances for SE TX until may
be late in the week next week. 41&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. L/V winds as high pressure moves through the
region...initially calm becoming southwest then variable this
afternoon/evening...and back to calm.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Light W/SW winds today will become more southerly tonight as surface
high pressure moves east with time. A reinforcing cold front remains
on track to push into our coastal waters tomorrow/Thur...with only a
slight uptick in speeds as winds shift to the N/NE. SCEC flags might
be needed for our offshore waters briefly Thurs night into early Fri
morning. As surface high pressure moves rapidly across the area, on-
shore winds are set to return Sat and into most of Sun. Another cold
front is forecast to move into the coastal waters by late Sun after-
noon/early evening...with moderate/strong NE winds developing in its
wake. SCEC/SCA flags are possible Sun night into Mon. 41

&&


.TROPICAL...
Tropical wave over the Caribbean should track west and has some
potential for development near the Yucatan Friday into Saturday.
NHC currently progging it at 60 percent. This feature should
interact with the potent cold front draped across FL to Cozumel
with dry high pressure extending well out across the Gulf.
GFS/ECMWF vary in the level of organization and track but suffice
it to say this looks like it would remain near the Yucatan/Bay of
Campeche through at least midweek. A second wave may track into
the same region by late week.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 84 56 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 62 87 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 82 72 78 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TROPICAL...45
LONG TERM/MARINE...41

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Re: September 2020:

Post by redneckweather » Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:45 pm

48 degrees this morning here just south of Lake Conroe. Glorious weather today.

BlueJay
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Re: September 2020:

Post by BlueJay » Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:00 pm

After Laura and Beta, September ends with Chamber of Commerce weather.

On to October 2020...

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:28 pm

456
FXUS64 KHGX 301725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light west to
southwest winds will prevail this afternoon, then turning calm
through the night and Thursday morning. 05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Spectacular early fall weather will continue with dry conditions
and sunny afternoons/clear nights. High pressure centered near
Austin at 08z should slowly drift east today into SETX and tonight
will be over the Upper TX coastal waters and LA coast. Dry NW
flow aloft tonight will drag a weak s/w southeast and a dry
Canadian cold front dips down into SETX late Thursday turning
winds north and northeast. The front should push off the coast by
late Thursday evening. Ridging remains in control through Friday
night yielding more cool and dry weather.
45

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
With onshore winds progged to be in place, Sat should be a slightly
warmer day. Global models not in great agreement with the next cold
front`s timing but in favoring the ECMWF/Canadian solutions will be
going with FROPA on Sun. Still not expecting much by way of precip-
itation with its passage as low-level moisture remains very limited
for this timeframe. This reinforcing shot of cool/dry air should be
holding into the start of next week with temperatures slowly moder-
ating by mid week. The overall upper pattern for the long-term part
of this forecast looks to stay dominated by strong ridging out west
and a prevailing NW flow aloft across the state. Models appear to be
flattening this amplified pattern around the middle of next week, so
still not expecting any significant rain chances for SE TX until may
be late in the week next week. 41&&


MARINE...

Light W/SW winds today will become more southerly tonight as surface
high pressure moves east with time. A reinforcing cold front remains
on track to push into our coastal waters tomorrow/Thur...with only a
slight uptick in speeds as winds shift to the N/NE. SCEC flags might
be needed for our offshore waters briefly Thurs night into early Fri
morning. As surface high pressure moves rapidly across the area, on-
shore winds are set to return Sat and into most of Sun. Another cold
front is forecast to move into the coastal waters by late Sun after-
noon/early evening...with moderate/strong NE winds developing in its
wake. SCEC/SCA flags are possible Sun night into Mon. 41

TROPICAL...
Tropical wave over the Caribbean should track west and has some
potential for development near the Yucatan Friday into Saturday.
NHC currently progging it at 60 percent. This feature should
interact with the potent cold front draped across FL to Cozumel
with dry high pressure extending well out across the Gulf.
GFS/ECMWF vary in the level of organization and track but suffice
it to say this looks like it would remain near the Yucatan/Bay of
Campeche through at least midweek. A second wave may track into
the same region by late week.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 56 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 62 87 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 82 72 78 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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