September 2020:

[DoctorMu]

1 mb drop and nearing landfall on the barrier island to the se of Port O'connor.

Next fix may confirm.

Thanks - I have Beta about there, too.

[Snakeswx]

Radar really filling in..

[Rip76]

Radar really filling in..

Yes it is.

[Scott747]

Recon obs right along the coast from near Quintana Beach to near Matagorda Bay were about 35-40 kts. Doubtful they are sustained but I'm sure a few isolated areas are seeing gusts at or over ts strength.

[Texashawk]

So everybody seems kind of ‘blah’ abut this setup. If you told me a month ago that there would be a dying tropical system 70 miles from Houston with us in the right top quadrant and it was forecast to hang around for 2-3 more days, I’d have looked into a pontoon boat. I’m actually quite nervous about this setup, but I seem to be in the minority. What am I missing here?

[txbear]

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It’s definitely taking some strong pulls in off the gulf. Need to keep a watchful eye on that for flood concerns. Especially if there isn’t much movement from Beta.

[Katdaddy]

Setting at 5" in W League City and thankfully the feederband has drifted to the NE slightly but watching more development to the SW in Brazoria County

[Scott747]

So everybody seems kind of ‘blah’ abut this setup. If you told me a month ago that there would be a dying tropical system 70 miles from Houston with us in the right top quadrant and it was forecast to hang around for 2-3 more days, I’d have looked into a pontoon boat. I’m actually quite nervous about this setup, but I seem to be in the minority. What am I missing here?

Two camps. Dry air and/or shear.

I'm in camp shear that isn't allowing a sustained cdo to develop and maintain which then could at least fight back some of the dry air. The circulation is vigorous enough to do so but the shear keeps blowing off any building convection around the coc.

[davidiowx]

So everybody seems kind of ‘blah’ abut this setup. If you told me a month ago that there would be a dying tropical system 70 miles from Houston with us in the right top quadrant and it was forecast to hang around for 2-3 more days, I’d have looked into a pontoon boat. I’m actually quite nervous about this setup, but I seem to be in the minority. What am I missing here?

Honestly you’re not missing much, but there it a lot dry air in all levels which should prevent massive rain rates across a large area.
That does not mean there won’t be areas that may experience some flooding inland due to rain.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
827 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 827 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain
have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Southwestern Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, Missouri
City, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson, Stafford, South
Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, La Marque, Katy, Santa
Fe, Seabrook, Richmond, Webster and Manvel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

[Snakeswx]

I'm going to get an energy drink I have a feeling I'm gonna end up kayaking people out of neighborhoods

[Rip76]

I'm going to get an energy drink I have a feeling I'm gonna end up kayaking people out of neighborhoods

Where?

[don]

Beta structure and rainshield looks more impressive than what most models showed. It seems like the models were overdoing a little the dry air.The latest HRRR shows more intense training starting overnight into tomorrow afternoon.

[tireman4]

Beta structure and rainshield looks more impressive than what most models showed. It seems like the models were overdoing a little the dry air.The latest HRRR shows more intense training starting overnight into tomorrow afternoon.

And that.....worries me ...when we finally hit the saturation points. ..

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if we could see core rains from Beta. Core rains are difficult to forecast.

[Rip76]

Man it’s right there on Matagorda

[snowman65]

maybe it's just my thinking it seems like storms that tend to start and form near the coast in the form tend to stall for days and rain because they don't get a chance to build up an forward momentum to push through and move on out...idk

[MH5]

0Z HRRR run is pretty bullish on rain totals over the next 36 hours for Harris county. Seems to finally agree with Beta riding up the coast inline with the models/forecast instead of sending it w-sw after landfall. Something to keep an eye on.

[SLM87TX]

Beta has strived at night, people got ahead of the cart. I think 10"+ is going to be real possibility for some. I would not be surprised to se the same thing happen tommarow night too. Real question where do the 3am to 8am bands setup. I think that will be the max totals. Any thoughts?

[don]

Some of the bayous and creeks on the southwest side are going out of their banks. And over 7 inches of rain has already fallen in southwest Houston and many streets are flooded with stranded vehicles right now.Some of the models also show a core rain event tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.Getting concerned that the flooding with Beta is going to be more intense than most were expecting...