September 2020:

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:45 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:15 pm
davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:06 pm Looks like we may have landfall per radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-24
Almost. There's wobbling and Beta moves NW right at Matagorda. Pretty good entraining over southern Galveston Island into Alvin and League City and then Sugar Land. Could be more twisters popping up on that dirty side as the band rotates.

Its moving at 7mph..it hasn't made landfall yet...its suppose to arpund 7 or 8 pm

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:47 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:45 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:15 pm
davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:06 pm Looks like we may have landfall per radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-24
Almost. There's wobbling and Beta moves NW right at Matagorda. Pretty good entraining over southern Galveston Island into Alvin and League City and then Sugar Land. Could be more twisters popping up on that dirty side as the band rotates.
Its moving at 7mph..it hasn't made landfall yet...its suppose to arpund 7 or 8 pm

Yeah, I see the CoC just offshore still.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:49 pm

Just a comparison of the radar right now and the depiction of what the HRWF has been showing pretty consistently for the last few days.Getting concerned there may start to be flash flooding issues in Metro Houston if the training feeder band doesn't stop.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:50 pm

There's a lot more rain on the radar than 2 hours ago. Should be robust until at least 5 pm. The Shield will probably reach within 5 miles of my back yard before cycling down!

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:51 pm

don wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:49 pm Just a comparison of the radar right now and the depiction of what the HRWF has been showing pretty consistently for the last few days.Getting concerned there may start to be flash flooding issues in Metro Houston if the training feeder band doesn't stop.

Beta is ramping up over SW Harris Co. and Ft. Bend.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:20 pm

Closing in on 2.5" here in Richmond and rain is picking up in intensity. Looks like radar is going to continue to fill in. It will be interesting to see if it pulses down tonight or if it intensifies similar to past storms at night.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:21 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:42 pm .26” overnight but nothing yet today but sprinkles. Storm total .48” so far.

Will be watching to see if the bands and core shift northward.

We are about to get popped looking at radar and what's coming off the Gulf east of GLS.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:24 pm

HRRR running and shows a little lull in activity in a few hours but then ramps it up again over night. Primarily over Brazoria and Ft Bend counties and South Westward. However, it also shows Beta moving SW towards Corpus.. Not sure how much to believe that?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:20 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:24 pm HRRR running and shows a little lull in activity in a few hours but then ramps it up again over night. Primarily over Brazoria and Ft Bend counties and South Westward. However, it also shows Beta moving SW towards Corpus.. Not sure how much to believe that?

Is HRRR showing ANYTHING for the Beaumont area? Sun and not a drop all day. Wondering if we will get any rAin period.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:21 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:24 pm However, it also shows Beta moving SW towards Corpus.. Not sure how much to believe that?

When steering currents collapse as forecasted there can be temporary and erratic motion. So it's plausible....

As of now I think it barely crawling and may not make much further inland than Matagorda Bay.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:28 pm

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:20 pm
davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:24 pm HRRR running and shows a little lull in activity in a few hours but then ramps it up again over night. Primarily over Brazoria and Ft Bend counties and South Westward. However, it also shows Beta moving SW towards Corpus.. Not sure how much to believe that?
Is HRRR showing ANYTHING for the Beaumont area? Sun and not a drop all day. Wondering if we will get any rAin period.

Maybe a tad bit of rain, but it appears there is a dry slot through the next 10-12 hours. The 20z run isn't complete yet. There are still a few days to deal with this so a lot can and will change over the next 2-3 days.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:32 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:28 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:20 pm
davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:24 pm HRRR running and shows a little lull in activity in a few hours but then ramps it up again over night. Primarily over Brazoria and Ft Bend counties and South Westward. However, it also shows Beta moving SW towards Corpus.. Not sure how much to believe that?
Is HRRR showing ANYTHING for the Beaumont area? Sun and not a drop all day. Wondering if we will get any rAin period.
Maybe a tad bit of rain, but it appears there is a dry slot through the next 10-12 hours. The 20z run isn't complete yet. There are still a few days to deal with this so a lot can and will change over the next 2-3 days.

Thank you

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:34 pm

I am at 3" of rain since rain started yesterday. I would guess 5" - 7" isn't out of the question for my area when this is all said and done. Of course that could be lower or increase depending on where the bands start training.

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Beta nearing landfall near Matagorda Bay.

Beta has slowly weakened today as dry air continues to work into the circulation which has limited thunderstorm activity on the eastern and southern eastern side of the circulation. The center is about 45 miles SE of Port O Connor and landfall should occur early this evening. The forward motion of the storm has been slowing today and will likely slow more this evening and overnight and Beta could stall near or just inland of Matagorda Bay into Tuesday before starting a slow ENE motion along and just inland of the upper TX coast.

Impacts:

Rainfall:

Bands continue to develop and move inland along the I-45 corridor and this seems to be one of the favored areas where there has been some periods of training today. There have been enough breaks between the heavier rainfall and the overall intensity of the rainfall rates have been around 1.0-1.5 inches at maximum to keep the flash flood risk on the low side. Grounds are starting to saturate over the region and additional rainfall will begin to produce more steady run-off.

With the center of Beta remaining southwest of much of Houston through Tuesday evening the threat for additional training rainfall will continue, but where any of these bands may set up is hard to determine. WPC has a portion of the area around Galveston Bay in a moderate risk for flash flooding again on Tuesday.

Tides:

High tide tonight will again feature water levels of 4.0-5.0ft above MLLW or 3.0-4.0 ft above MHHW. This is similar or maybe .50 ft lower than this morning and it is likely that most coastal locations experienced their highest tides of this event this morning which resulted in several areas of impacts. Tides will slowly subside into Tuesday, but remain elevated and at levels that will continue to cause impacts along the coast.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:35 pm

Beta appears stalled just off the coast.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:09 pm

Is it possible for Beta get organized tonight?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:24 pm

sambucol wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:09 pm Is it possible for Beta get organized tonight?

Doubtful

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:25 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 212205
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
505 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Tropical Storm Beta is still slowly moving its way to the SETX
coast. Sitting just outside the Matagorda Bay area, landfall is
expected tonight still. Rain fall is still expected to continue
through the evening and into the night. Winds are decreasing in
speed and expected to decrease under tropical storm force tomorrow
night as the system moves along the coastline near the
Matagorda/Angleton Co area. Rain bands will become more wide spread
across the SETX area as the storm loses strength and organization
throughout tonight and the day tomorrow. Tomorrow night and through
Wednesday morning, the system is expected to be moving out of the
area. Chances will be decreasing across the CWA through Thursday
early morning. Winds are going to be on the decline tonight with
winds at or under tropical storm force along the southern coastal
counties. By wednesday night and into Thursday early morning, winds
will have decreased to northerly around 10mph. 35

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...

While the remnants of Beta are expected to be well E/NE of the CWA
by Thurs, some isolated/widely scattered rain chances could linger
over parts of SE TX through the end of the week. A broad mid/upper
level trof axis is progged to develop across the state (stretching
from the lower Rio Grande Valley E/NE towards SE TX) could provide
enough instability to produce some activity across this area. How-
ever, moisture levels should be rather limited in the wake of Beta
and will keep our "best" POPs over the eastern CWA. These low POPs
could persist into Fri/Sat as light onshore winds resume...and may
be helped along by the seabreeze.

While previous model runs were more aggressive with the idea of a
cold front moving down into the region on Sun, 12Z runs appear to
be backing off a little bit. A rather amplified upper ridge build-
ing in over the western U.S. seems to be shunting the bulk of the
colder air more east of the region initially(Sun) but a deepening
upper low tracking over the Northern Plains could be advantageous
in driving a second stronger cold front into SE TX by next Tues.
Time will tell. 41

&&

.MARINE...

With Tropical Storm Beta continuing to slowly make its way towards
the Central TX coast, conditions will remain poor across our bays/
coastal waters tonight into tomorrow morning. The latest TPC track
has Beta moving along/just off the Upper TX coast through tomorrow
as it weakens to a remnant low. The southerly flow on the backside
of this storm system (mainly our offshore waters tonight/tomorrow)
will be shifting to the N/NW by Weds as it moves northeasterly out
of the region. Tropical storm conditions are expected to "improve"
to Small Craft Advisory conditions early late Tue night/early Weds
morning...with most flags likely gone by Weds night. Thereafter, a
generally light/moderate offshore flow should prevail for the rest
of the week. Light onshore winds are set to resume by late Fri and
Sat. A weak cold front is possible Sun, but models are now hinting
that a second stronger front could push off the coast by next Tues.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 78 67 78 65 / 50 70 60 30 10
Houston (IAH) 71 83 71 81 70 / 50 80 80 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 85 76 84 74 / 70 80 70 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

Storm Surge Warning for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:56 pm

The other band is north of Shreveport, just gone through Dallas. Crazy.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:02 pm

Banding features are definitely there for continued rain over night if this keeps up. Likely moderate rain rates over hours. Bayous and creeks (even the soil) can handle this kind of rain. If rain rates drastically increase then some flooding could start becoming a reality.

Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:28 pm

I was fortunate enough to get 2.26 inches today.

September 2020:

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