September 2020:

[jasons2k]

The dewpoint here was 60 when I woke-up with a pleasant 65 degrees outside. Now it’s up to 69 and it feels a lot more humid.

[Andrew]

Nice CDO now trying to develop, the key here will be if it can hold on to that convection overnight and keep the dry air to it's southeast away.

[Rip76]

What is the current heading? Due W?

[davidiowx]

What is the current heading? Due W?

WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC

[Rip76]

What is the current heading? Due W?

WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC

This is impossible sir.

[davidiowx]

What is the current heading? Due W?

WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC

This is impossible sir.

Haha!! But it’s 2020!

WNW is what it should have said

[CRASHWX]

What is the current heading? Due W?

WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC

This is impossible sir.

I DO NOT KNOW IT IS 2020!

[Rip76]

Sure looks WSW to me. (At least currently)

[AtascocitaWX]

Man Gulf Storms are always full of surprises

[cperk]

Getting a nice downpour here in Richmond.

[Andrew]

Getting a nice downpour here in Richmond.

Yea I've been getting a steady rain for the last hour or so in the Garden Oaks/Oak Forest area.

[Stormlover2020]

This has to be strengthening!!!

[don]

Beta right now looks the best its ever looked. Could become a hurricane if the trend continues.

[Rip76]

Sounds like some fighter jets are getting the hell out of Ellington.

[vci_guy2003]

So much for the computer model forecasts for intensity

[Texashawk]

So is there not any more recon scheduled? How unfortunate if so...

[CRASHWX]

If the shear relaxes and it continues to fight off the dry air...could ole’ Beta pull a rabbit out of the hat? I say its quite possible. I have seen worse organized storm come back from near death to be formidable. Still don't think its a huge deal at this point but I think if it continues you may see the warning change.

[Scott747]

So I had a quick pow wow with Josh before he decides about heading this way. As I explained to him I was having a hard time believing that with those multiple passes that recon did and with the onboard radar they have that there wasn't a mention and special advisory about a potentially building eyewall.

However if there is indeed one there is no way it won't be mentioned in the next update at 4.

[Scott747]

So is there not any more recon scheduled? How unfortunate if so...

Should be one this evening for the 10 pm package.

[unome]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

Code: Select all

491 
NOUS42 KNHC 191749
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0150 PM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-116

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE TEDDY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
       A. 20/2330Z                   A. 21/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0620A TEDDY          B. AFXXX 0720A TEDDY
       C. 20/2030Z                   C. 21/0800Z
       D. 30.2N 62.2W                D. 33.0N 61.6W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0230Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. TROPICAL STORM BETA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 20/2330Z,21/0530Z          A. 21/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0722A BETA           B. AFXXX 0822A BETA
       C. 20/2200Z                   C. 21/1000Z
       D. 27.5N 94.7W                D. 27.8N 95.4W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON TEDDY.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON BETA WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TDR MISSION INTO BETA, DEPARTING KLAL
          AT 21/2130Z.

    4. REMARKS:
       A. TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
          BETA FOR 20/0000Z WILL NOT BE FLOWN.
       B. THE TEAL 75 20/1730Z MISSION REQUIREMENT TASKED FOR TEDDY
          IN TCPOD 20-115 WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 19/1355Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

Code: Select all

491 
NOUS42 KNHC 191749
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0150 PM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-116

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE TEDDY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
       A. 20/2330Z                   A. 21/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0620A TEDDY          B. AFXXX 0720A TEDDY
       C. 20/2030Z                   C. 21/0800Z
       D. 30.2N 62.2W                D. 33.0N 61.6W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0230Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. TROPICAL STORM BETA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 20/2330Z,21/0530Z          A. 21/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0722A BETA           B. AFXXX 0822A BETA
       C. 20/2200Z                   C. 21/1000Z
       D. 27.5N 94.7W                D. 27.8N 95.4W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON TEDDY.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON BETA WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TDR MISSION INTO BETA, DEPARTING KLAL
          AT 21/2130Z.

    4. REMARKS:
       A. TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
          BETA FOR 20/0000Z WILL NOT BE FLOWN.
       B. THE TEAL 75 20/1730Z MISSION REQUIREMENT TASKED FOR TEDDY
          IN TCPOD 20-115 WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 19/1355Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN