September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Scott747 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:35 pm

It's hanging on right now. Recon obs are woeful. It's still a TS but a weak one. Can't see how they won't lower the intensity current and on approach. The continuing lack of movement may push back landfall.

Kingwood36
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Kingwood36 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:37 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:35 pm
Beta sure doesn’t look like much tonight.. tomorrow will be telling (good or bad) but the mesoscale models coming into play don’t really show much of a major impact. As in it’s nothing we can’t handle outside of coastal flooding due to surge. That could very well change come tomorrow. Time will tell!
Tropical system normally get going at night time so let see what he does if he can establish a inner core and fight off some of that dry air

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:38 pm

It looks like we are gonna wake up to nothing in the gulf at all. This doesn't even look like a depression right now.

davidiowx
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by davidiowx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:40 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:37 pm
davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:35 pm
Beta sure doesn’t look like much tonight.. tomorrow will be telling (good or bad) but the mesoscale models coming into play don’t really show much of a major impact. As in it’s nothing we can’t handle outside of coastal flooding due to surge. That could very well change come tomorrow. Time will tell!
Tropical system normally get going at night time so let see what he does if he can establish a inner core and fight off some of that dry air
For sure, but it’s gonna be a fight for sure. Just want some rain out of this, that’s about it!

davidiowx
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by davidiowx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:44 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:38 pm
It looks like we are gonna wake up to nothing in the gulf at all. This doesn't even look like a depression right now.

It’s def a storm; the LLC is there, albeit weak. Convection on the other hand is lacking and the million dollar question is whether or not it can build some over the next 24-48 hours. It’s a decent sized circulation and it takes time for circulations this size to get itself together, even in a good environment. The current environment isn’t favorable for it to strengthen much in the timeframe prior to land interaction.

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:14 pm

I get that, but if you look at the IR and didn't already know a storm was brewing you wouldn't think anything was there.

Image

davidiowx
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by davidiowx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:15 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...BETA FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of High Island, Texas
to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana.

The Tropical Storm Watch east of Intracoastal City Louisiana to
Morgan City Louisiana has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and
Corpus Christi Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta has
drifted toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h) since
this morning. A slow motion toward the west-northwest is forecast
to begin on Sunday, followed by a slow northwest to north motion
late Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta
will move toward the coast of Texas and potentially move inland
late Monday or early Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening
is anticipated once Beta moves inland Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Baffin Bay, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Corpus
Christi Bay, Baffin Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay,
Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4
ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late Sunday through
early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the central Louisiana coast tonight, and are possible within
the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches
across southern Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas, with 3 to 7
inches spreading northward into the Mid-South mid next week. Flash
and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding.
Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

Kingwood36
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Kingwood36 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:18 pm

So its moving nne...thought it made the turn west already?

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:24 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:18 pm
So its moving nne...thought it made the turn west already?
That’s what I thought too. This thing has a lot of work to do. Nothing but a naked swirl. Dry air and wind shear is tearing Beta completely apart. Heck it might just be nothing but an open wave when it gets here.

Andrew
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Andrew » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:43 pm

Beta still has a well defined LLC based on IR and recon. Pulses like this often happen for weak storms like Beta that are being interfered with by shear and dry air.
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