August 2020:

[Snakeswx]

She better start moving more N very soon. These are the critical hours and each little jog more W is not cool especially as she explodes with intensity

I'm with you. Bad timing for a wobble west

[rselby0654]

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected?

[Kingwood36]

Ya i agree..every wobble west means us getting a little closer to some bad weather

[Texashawk]

In another .5 degree west, Laura will be just about due south of Lake Charles. I’m getting real concerned that it’s not gaining latitude as fast as it needs to to make the landfall projection. It needs to turn, like, nao nao nao

[weatherguy425]

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected?

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

[LightningBolt]

With the western side seemingly expanding, what type of winds might be experienced in Central Liberty County if Laura exactly follows NHC projected path? (Not to mention any potential wobbles west.}

[Snakeswx]

In another .5 degree west, Laura will be just about due south of Lake Charles. I’m getting real concerned that it’s not gaining latitude as fast as it needs to to make the landfall projection. It needs to turn, like, nao nao nao

Same page. Marco may have paved the way for a solid left side here

[Texashawk]

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected?

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right?

[rselby0654]

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected?

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

The NHC said it was moving northwest last night. Has not turned.

[weatherguy425]

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected?

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right?

It certainly can. 20 miles is pretty substantial. No sign of that yet. Here is a wonderful reference - a great follow on Twitter, btw.

[DoctorMu]

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected?

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right?

Because the coastline is also curving - to the south in SETX. 20 miles of wobble and/or west side expansion could be catastrophic.

[DoctorMu]

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right?

It certainly can. 20 miles is pretty substantial. No sign of that yet. Here is a wonderful reference - a great follow on Twitter, btw.

Thanks. Laura's CoC vector has not changed on average in the last 24 hours. She was on the right side of her projected path 24 hours ago, and now is in the middle. I'm not saying that Laura won't start turning to the NNW and eventually N (because she'll reach the western edge of the ridge), but empirically she has not yet.

[weatherguy425]

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything.

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right?

It certainly can. 20 miles is pretty substantial. No sign of that yet. Here is a wonderful reference - a great follow on Twitter, btw.

Initial chance occurred between the 1 & 4 AM CDT advisories. These turns are gradual. We shouldn’t dismiss it. I’m just saying nothing out of the TX, LA border range right now.

[DoctorMu]

https://twitter.com/tomorleans75/status ... 82208?s=20

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A Shell facility recorded a 160 mph wind gust a bit ago. Located at 27°33&#39;00.0&quot;N 92°29&#39;24.0&quot;W</p>&mdash; Tommy Runnels (@tomorleans75) <a href="https://twitter.com/tomorleans75/status ... fw">August 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[weatherguy425]

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right?

It certainly can. 20 miles is pretty substantial. No sign of that yet. Here is a wonderful reference - a great follow on Twitter, btw.

Thanks. Laura's CoC vector has not changed on average in the last 24 hours. She was on the right side of her projected path 24 hours ago, and now is in the middle. I'm not saying that Laura won't start turning to the NNW and eventually N (because she'll reach the western edge of the ridge), but empirically she has not yet.

Technically, the turn has begun. WNW to NW between 1 & 4AM advisories. Still, some uncertainty with the very specifics as there always tends to be - like you mentioned.

[jabcwb2]

She better start moving more N very soon. These are the critical hours and each little jog more W is not cool especially as she explodes with intensity

Please pardon my ignorance, but what would be the zero hour for this beast to make the true northern turn to not effect Harris County?

[Ace]

Hurricane force winds could extend out to Harris and Montgomery Counties. That’s how much she’s grown.

Wow

Would you please show me the map for that as I'm near 45 in Spring. Someone in Storm2K posted a experimental interactive graph where you could look up where Hurricane Force winds\surge would go near your house. Two days ago I was very near the Hurricane force winds. Would you please share that?

[Ace]

Does NHC just mean that the Tx/La border is Northwest?

Yes

Thank you for answering

[DoctorMu]

It certainly can. 20 miles is pretty substantial. No sign of that yet. Here is a wonderful reference - a great follow on Twitter, btw.

Thanks. Laura's CoC vector has not changed on average in the last 24 hours. She was on the right side of her projected path 24 hours ago, and now is in the middle. I'm not saying that Laura won't start turning to the NNW and eventually N (because she'll reach the western edge of the ridge), but empirically she has not yet.

Technically, the turn has begun. WNW to NW between 1 & 4AM advisories. Still, some uncertainty with the very specifics as there always tends to be - like you mentioned.

I understand what the NHC has stated, and what is expected re: curvature and why. However, if you following the line of movement (see figure in that post) of the CoC over the last 24 hours it's rectilinear, not curvilinear.

[AtascocitaWX]

From my eye and I am not a Pro. it took a wobble north and now is moving back more NorthWest.