TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[Ptarmigan]

Looks better than yesterday. I still notice the heavy moisture over Yucatan.

[biggerbyte]

It does "appear" to be moving wnw at this time. However, that was not the case earlier. It is strange how we went through the exact same movement with Alex. He was headed in a more northerly direction for a time before moving wnw again. Mexico is acting like a magnet this year.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

994 
WHXX01 KWBC 080010
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC THU JUL 8 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100708 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100708 0000 100708 1200 100709 0000 100709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 93.8W 24.9N 95.9W 26.2N 97.9W 27.3N 99.8W
BAMD 23.5N 93.8W 24.4N 95.8W 25.2N 97.7W 25.8N 99.6W
BAMM 23.5N 93.8W 24.7N 95.9W 25.8N 97.9W 26.7N 99.9W
LBAR 23.5N 93.8W 24.8N 96.0W 26.5N 98.2W 28.2N 100.3W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 37KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100710 0000 100711 0000 100712 0000 100713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 101.7W 29.7N 105.2W 30.6N 106.1W 30.1N 105.0W
BAMD 26.3N 101.6W 27.2N 105.9W 27.9N 109.2W 28.0N 110.8W
BAMM 27.5N 101.8W 28.8N 105.5W 29.5N 107.5W 28.7N 107.8W
LBAR 29.9N 101.7W 32.7N 101.9W 34.3N 98.2W 35.7N 91.4W
SHIP 54KTS 58KTS 58KTS 55KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 93.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 92.0W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 65NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[wxdata]

It does "appear" to be moving wnw at this time. However, that was not the case earlier. It is strange how we went through the exact same movement with Alex. He was headed in a more northerly direction for a time before moving wnw again. Mexico is acting like a magnet this year.

The further north the storm drifts (like Alex,) the more it comes in contact with the upper ridge, which then begins to direct it more westward..

[Katdaddy]

Last images indicate a TD as the Sun set. No doubt for Katdaddy. We shall see overnight if its official.

[wxman57]

Convection is quite sparse and diminishing, though. Cloud tops still warming:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

[srainhoutx]

Maybe an early morning instead of late night there wxman57?

[Hardcoreweather]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Ptarmigan]

AL 96 has been promoted...

I see we have a new tropical depression.

[ticka1]

AL 96 has been promoted...

I see we have a new tropical depression.

Do you have a link to this information? NHC still shows nothing.

[Scott747]

Surprised they upgraded it given the poor presentation over the last few hours.

Stewart should explain fully in the disco why.

[ticka1]

If TD2 stays weak - will it be more inclined to go West or North?

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[Scott747]

Surprised they upgraded it given the poor presentation over the last few hours.

Stewart should explain fully in the disco why.

There is a NOAA WP-3D flying a research mission. Sending back HDOBs, no Vortex Message.

Yeah I saw where it looked like there was enough data to go ahead and upgrade it. Just thought it needed to sustain more convection to pull the trigger.

Noticed that they went with a NW heading and figured we might see at least a watch towards Port O'Connor. Have just seen warnings to Baffin Bay so far.

[Hardcoreweather]

11pm cone for naked swirl #2 that should have never been upgraded

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 6c0cd6.jpg

[srainhoutx]

[Scott747]

11pm cone for naked swirl #2 that should have never been upgraded

Recon data usually seals the deal.

[Hardcoreweather]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO
NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER
REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A
RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE
TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE
SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 23.9N 93.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[Hardcoreweather]

11pm cone for naked swirl #2 that should have never been upgraded

Recon data usually seals the deal.

That wasn't a normal recon flight

[Scott747]

Sounds like the initial NW motion is being attributed to the center reforming though there isn't enough fixes to determine either way.

Much like Alex it's about the building ridge that will turn it more towards the W. Limited time anyways so not sure how much it matters.