August 2020:

[Kingwood36]

You guys think they are waitong for the 12z to come out before they make another adjustment?When does the 12z come out

[don]

They just started running

12z ICON

[txbear]

If anyone is interested, the 00z Texas Tech WRF ensembles also have Laura coming in around Bolivar, although the left turn at the end of the run could probably be thrown out. 12z is loading now.

Thanks for the update. Where may we see these runs?

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_ti ... nshome.php

You can also see their operational model as well. Another tool in the box. Will be interesting to see what the mesoscale models show once Laura's landfall gets in their range.

[Kingwood36]

So you guys think this is a done deal that the forecast track won't move anymore?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So you guys think this is a done deal that the forecast track won't move anymore?

Lol no

[Ace]

They are probably waiting on the 12z runs before making any significant changes to the track.

My 12z conversion table says that equals to 7 am . I assume that means when it ran? So, when does it actually come out?

[tireman4]

So you guys think this is a done deal that the forecast track won't move anymore?

That would be a semi hard no..

[mcheer23]

The update from Wxman that everyone wanted...

wxman57 wrote:
Was awakened this morning by my teammate (who's off duty now) telling me of the track changes. He's driving his wife & newborn to San Antonio and will be ready to work from there. I was out of the house within 3 minutes racing to Kroger to get my four five-gallon gas cans filled for the generator. I'm sure hoping it goes in east of GLS Bay, but that's not clear. Won't be until tomorrow evening. Note that Laura is going to be very small compared to Ike & Rita. Rita's hurricane-force winds extended out about 85 miles east of the center, Ike's over 100 miles. Laura's may extend out 30-35 miles east of the center and 20-25 miles west of the center. Much smaller wind damage area, but not good near the track line. Looking at 120 mph wind at landfall, maybe more. Moved the track to just west of BPT now, but we are waiting for the 12Z model runs which will have the G-IV data before making any further adjustments west or east.

[Cpv17]

The NHC seems to be completely ignoring the globals and their ensembles and just going by what the tropical models are saying.

[mcheer23]

GFS shifted east a few miles.

[Rip76]

Damnit.

[Kingwood36]

Daytime...east....night-time...west

[Waded]

Phone just woke me up after a night of model watching. I haven't caught up with the thread, but I know the outlook hasn't improved if the NWS issued a hurricane warning for my area near Nassau Bay.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

[Kingwood36]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Why it's pretty obvious that the national hurricane center is disregarding those its seemed like

[MontgomeryCoWx]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Why it's pretty obvious that the national hurricane center is disregarding those its seemed like

They aren’t disregarding. They extended warnings down the Texas coast....

[Belmer]

GFS moved literally maybe a couple miles east, but 06 and 12z still indicate a Port Arthur landfall. Still seems a hair west of NHC.


06z:

1.png

12z:

2.png

[txbear]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Agreed. The ensembles seem to have a better grasp of the situation, IMO. And they should be worth their own weight in the decision and forecast processes.

[snowman65]

ensembles still pointing Galveston?

[Cpv17]

12z tropical models shift west clustered between Beaumont and Houston. Expect a west shift in the track at the 11 am advisory.Wouldn't surprised me if they extended the hurricane watch further down the coast also, in the next update.

Imo this is why the NHC isn’t changing the track. Tight consensus on the border.