August 2020:

[Scott747]

0z GFS is coming in further w

[Belmer]

GFS remains further south/southwest through it's track in the Gulf than previous runs today, however makes a decent sharp right turn before landfall just near the TX/LA border. All about that turn...

gfs_mslp_uv850_scus_10.png

[Scott747]

Closer to the border.

Takes a little longer before it makes the sharp turn. This will be crucial.

[Stormlover2020]

Jma model Freeport

[sambucol]

Will the NHC shift the cone west tonight? Wouldn’t they have to do that by tomorrow morning at the latest?

[Andrew]

Will the NHC shift the cone west tonight? Wouldn’t they have to do that by tomorrow morning at the latest?

IF the GFS is the most easterly model they have to shift west to probably the border at least

[sambucol]

Thank you Andrew.

[Scott747]

Ukie gets close enough to sweat before it makes a sharp turn.

[jasons2k]

The UKMET is in. Also a shift to the west. I believe today's eastward trend has ceased. This is a troublesome trend for Houston and the Golden Triangle areas.

[Cromagnum]

If thats true, the 4AM and 10AM updates may be grim.

[Waded]

Doesn't the GFS have a right bias? It's probably ungood if its the eastern most model.

[jasons2k]

Doesn't the GFS have a right bias? It's probably ungood if its the eastern most model.

It tends to in situations when you are trying to see if a ridge is going to break down or not.

[Andrew]

FWIW CMC has a big shift west.

[jasons2k]

Significant south/west shift in the Canadian through 36 hours. It's been a far eastern outlier but now it is coming in-line with the other models.

I'm about to call it a night. This looks like two model suites in a row now when each model has shifted west from its previous run. I may have to check the ensembles in the wee hours.

[sau27]

Ah I see the nightly western shifts have begun again. Love that consistency

[Stormlover2020]

Galveston

[srainhoutx]

00Z Canadian

[TXWeatherMan]

Anybody know where the UKMET makes landfall?

[ccbluewater]

CMC looks like Bolivar for what it is worth.

[jasons2k]

Anybody know where the UKMET makes landfall?

West of Sabine Pass, south of Beaumont.