August 2020:

[djmike]

He is correct. It says 11pm now. So yea. No change. Timw for some rest. Atleast try.

[Stormlover2020]

They change the track

[Stormlover2020]

The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the left of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus aids.

[Kingwood36]

Hell I dont know lol if it isnt the right map its my bad...sorry guys

[Scott747]

We're gonna find out real quick if there may be more shifts in the track to the w. There should have been enough data ingested that will show if the ridge is building further to the w.

[txbear]

All good. Frankly it’s shifted so much it’d be right at least one time a day.

No change of the western edge of the cone or where the watches/warnings are.

[Rip76]

We're gonna find out real quick if there may be more shifts in the track to the w. There should have been enough data ingested that will show if the ridge is building further to the w.

This is for sure.

[djmike]

Question: if I remember right, doesnt NHC update tracks more often when storms nears landfall. Like every 3 hours? Or am I imagining this. (I know not right now, but as it gets closer to land?) TIA

[Scott747]

ICON is a little further w.

[Txrunner82]

I live in El Jardin in Seabrook. Basically end of Toddville rd. What should I do? Evac or hunker? Just moved to El Jardin so very worried about time frame now.

[Scott747]

There was a key update in the latest advisory.

Additional hurricane watches may be needed further down the Texas coast if the forecast shifts.

[Cromagnum]

They said that at 4 PM too

[Scott747]

You're right. Missed that earlier...

[tireman4]

Hang on folks. The mystery and intrigue continues. Will the NHC move the track at the 1 am or the 5 am? Stay tuned.

[Cromagnum]

Hang on folks. The mystery and intrigue continues. Will the NHC move the track at the 1 am or the 5 am? Stay tuned.

I would rather read a comedy than a whodunit right now.

[don]

Looks like the center has reformed to the south.

[srainhoutx]

AF RECON may have just found the center right off the Western tip of Cuba. Extrapolated 995mb. Looks almost due W of an early center pass when the first arrved.

[Texaspirate11]

I live in El Jardin in Seabrook. Basically end of Toddville rd. What should I do? Evac or hunker? Just moved to El Jardin so very worried about time frame now.

i live near you and we are both in a voluntary evacuation area. Todville Road is historically known for flooding really badly.
I'd consider it if Laura goes more West for sure

[Waded]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1 ... 9412859906

"For the fourth time in three days, #Laura is interacting with land this evening and has a strong mid-level center located at the northern edge of a persistent band of deep convection just south of the center.

In each other instance, this interaction produced a WSW shift in track"

[dp6]

I live in El Jardin in Seabrook. Basically end of Toddville rd. What should I do? Evac or hunker? Just moved to El Jardin so very worried about time frame now.

Storm surge map for Harris County:

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/ ... _surge.pdf

Several mets on various forums have suggested Laura could reach Cat. 4. At least 1 has hinted at Cat. 5, though others have explained how factors make that unlikely in their view.

I could be wrong, but seem to recall that the average error for the official track is almost 100 miles this far out. Which could mean a real risk for Houston. If Laura's landfall is west of High Island (perhaps all the way to Matagorda or further west, depending on storm size and strength) it could pile a lot of water into Galveston Bay and against and over Seabrook. The worst case scenario is a very strong hurricane hitting west of Galveston, because of the direction of the winds that push the storm surge.

The saying is run from the waves, shelter from the winds.