August 2020:

[weatherguy425]

Not to say the end result was/is wrong (still many unknowns) but the initialization of the 12Z ECMWF op was actually a bit off as well.

[tireman4]

Models will flip flop..they have all during this.....just be vigilant.

[weatherguy425]

Euro ends up near Houma and much quicker. Wednesday.

And a lot weaker too which is the concerning part. If we have any type of strong intensification we may see that shift west some.

I think the interaction with Marco is a huge factor in this particular runs’s shift east.

Edit to add Levi’s thoughts...

[cperk]

That euro intensity seems strange to me.

[DoctorMu]

Seriously? It's back to Louisiana again???? What about HWRF and HMON?

Par for 2020. Total confusion again. Even the Laura landfalls for the Ensembles run from Corpus to NOLA...

[DoctorMu]

Euro ends up near Houma and much quicker. Wednesday.

And a lot weaker too which is the concerning part. If we have any type of strong intensification we may see that shift west some.

I think the interaction with Marco is a huge factor in this particular runs’s shift east.

Edit to add Levi’s thoughts...

wtf?

[sau27]

12z euro is fairly weak. That goes along with everything we have been thinking weaker goes further East. I’d bet the 12z ensembles still have the stronger solutions pointed further west.

[don]

Seriously? It's back to Louisiana again???? What about HWRF and HMON?

HWRF HMON show the upper Texas coast, EURO is more east because its substantially weaker showing only a strong tropical storm.

[Cromagnum]

Worst scenario is we find out too late that Laura winds up headed to Houston as a strengthening Cat 2. Then people will lose their minds and folks north of 1-10 will clog up the highways so folks at the coast won't have a chance to evacuate. Hopefully we can get this nailed down better by Monday evening.

[djmike]

Marco/Laura:
Guys. Please start every comment with either Marco: or Laura: then text. Its hard determining which storm everyone is talking about. Thank you

[Scott747]

Yeah something seems off on the Euro run. When I glanced it lined up with the latest advisory. Then of course the fujiwhara dance with Marco.

[Andrew]

Looks like the interaction between the two storms is what is throwing a loop for the ECMWF. It shows Marco completely collapsing within the next 24 hours. Honestly, my personal opinion the ECMWF is having major issues right now with intensity of both storms and that is why we are having this wild swings. We are getting 200-300 mile swing shifts every model run now for Laura.

[tireman4]

Looks like the interaction between the two storms is what is throwing a loop for the ECMWF. It shows Marco completely collapsing within the next 24 hours. Honestly, my personal opinion the ECMWF is having major issues right now with intensity of both storms and that is why we are having this wild swings. We are getting 200-300 mile swing shifts every model run now for Laura.

Agreed. This "might" be an anomaly.

[Stormlover2020]

I’m so baffled right now with the euro. Gfs, Ukmet, Hmon, hwrf, vs euro?

[snowman65]

I can only imagine what it's like at NHC right now....

[weatherguy425]

LAURA -

12Z ECMWF did initialize too far north, not the MLC feature further south and it is struggling with the handling of Marco as laura enters the Gulf.

[dp6]

Here we go.

12z Euro initialized perfectly.

Except it didn't. Too far north, and thus ran it along inland Cuba. [Re: Think of Laura]

[cperk]

Question is what will the NHC do with the 12Z Euro run.

[christinac2016]

Laura
Carl Parker on weather Channel confirms forecast to become cat 2. Houston is now in the middle of cone of uncertainty.

[Scott747]

Question is what will the NHC do with the 12Z Euro run.

They will acknowledge it in the next disco and give their reasoning if it has merits. One key is if the forecast for Marco changes.