August 2020:

[Rip76]

HWRF - Thursday

[Tx2005]

The Space City Weather update this morning ought to be sobering.

[cperk]

I will be anxiously awaiting the first visible shots to see where that center is.

[cperk]

Couldn't we still be on the dry side if it hits tx la border/

Yeah but (if) the shift to the west continues rain might be the least of our problems.

[unome]

I will be anxiously awaiting the first visible shots to see where that center is.

[srainhoutx]

Eric Webb posted this on Twitter. The first image is the Euro EPS and the second....a Hurricane that I will not mention...

Hispaniola and Cuba do not always shred cyclones.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230955
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Slightly quieter radar this morning across SE TX, but we are seeing
activity to our E/SE trying to make its way into the FA with little
success thus far. Slightly drier/more stable air settling over this
area will likely keep any development through this afternoon, a bit
more on the isolated to widely scattered side of things. As per the
latest trends, with TSMarco now headed more toward the SE Louisiana
coast, our rain best chances tonight and Mon should be at/along our
coastal counties/Gulf waters. This drier pattern could translate to
warmer afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow, especially across
the northern CWA. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
Increased confidence that Marco will maintain a nnw motion up to
about landfall Monday evening along se La coastline. Few noticeable
impacts are anticipated locally.

That being said, attention then turns to Laura which is fcst to
emerge into the southeastern Gulf off Cuba Monday night. As it
encounters warmer water, low shear and free of any terrain
impacts...look for Laura to strengthen into a hurricane as it
moves toward the northwest Gulf Tue and Wed. It should eventually
take a turn to the nnw around the western periphery of mid
level ridge over the southeast states. The current NHC fcst has
Laura approaching uncomfortably close and into southwestern La
Wed night. Locations generally east of Freeport remain within the
forecast cone. Wouldn`t be overly surprised too surprised to see
a subtle westward track shift with later packages should several
models maintain some continuity. It is anticipated that once the
system moves back over the open Gulf waters, fcst confidence
should steadily improve as the center/location and steering flow
become fairly well defined.

Local wx in the mid-late work week time period will obviously be
dependent on what Laura ends up doing. For now, we nudged POPs up
across eastern parts of the area as a beginning point. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Expect a 3-5ft swell associated with TS Marco to begin filling in
across the waters later tonight & Mon...then fade Mon night & Tue.
Attention then turns to Laura which is forecast to move toward the
northwest Gulf into midweek. Look for another, quite possibly
higher swell to move in late Tue night or Wed and small craft
advisories appear likely for parts of the upper Texas coast.
Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecasts regarding
Laura. Though it is currently forecast to move inland around
southwest La Wed night portions of the upper Texas coast remain
within the forecast cone. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Will be maintaining VFR throughout with light/variable winds this
morning...eventually becoming light E/SE by this afternoon. Given
the slightly drier/more stable air mass over the area, chances of
rain through this afternoon should remain low/very spotty. So not
going to add any mention of VCSH/VCTS at this time. Winds are ex-
pected to become light/variable once again this evening/overnight.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 96 74 96 / 10 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 95 75 95 77 95 / 10 10 30 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 89 81 92 / 20 40 40 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[unome]

Eric Webb posted this on Twitter. The first image is the Euro EPS and the second....a Hurricane that I will not mention...

Hispaniola and Cuba do not always shred cyclones.

I saw that earlier, too

MIMIC TPW - change the layer to see diff levels - she just rolled right over Hispaniola...

forgot the link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[snowman65]

Eric Webb posted this on Twitter. The first image is the Euro EPS and the second....a Hurricane that I will not mention...

Hispaniola and Cuba do not always shred cyclones.

Looks like 99% of those tracks take it to somewhere way west of what every place is showing....pretty much leaving La out of the equation. Way so different than all the models, etc?

[snowman65]

Ive also learned in the past 3 years or so, if the say CAT 1, expect a 2....If they say CAT 2, expect a 3. Seems as though they grow faster than they used to.

[srainhoutx]

Remember that the individual ensemble members are initiated slightly different thus creating the various solutions.

[sau27]

06z Euro op takes Laura into Central LA coast, but 06z Euro ensemble is spread up and down the TX coast from Brownsville to the LA border.

[tireman4]

Gee Srain, who knew when I started this thread back in July that we would be talking about tropical mischief ( as you call it..LOL)? This will be a long week folks. I am sure the nerves will be frayed. The emotions running high, but the mets here will help in any way they can. Be patient. Ask your questions and they will get to you as best they can. Know your plan. Have your kits ready and stocked. Make sure you have chargers and charge cords for your laptops and phones. Back up your information on flash drives.

[Stormlover2020]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_13.gif

Tvcn la/tx border now

[sambucol]

Will there be another west shift in the NHC cone on the next update?

[Kingwood36]

Will there be another west shift in the NHC cone on the next update?

Probably in the 10 or 4 pm they would adjust it i would think

[Stormlover2020]

Euro ensemble control Freeport

[srainhoutx]

NHC will likely nudge a bit West with the 10 AM full package update. The 12Z track guidance is clustered over SW Louisiana.

[Cpv17]

I wonder why the EPS is so far west compared to everything else? I mean the track guidance is heavily into Louisiana for the most part.

[tireman4]

About Laura and the Terrain..

This is why we say that land interaction is a question mark... #Laura doesn't seem to care one bit about even a large mountainous island like #Hispaniola. Other storms have dissipated over it. pic.twitter.com/irqe4DOjtG
-- Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 23, 2020