August 2020:

[Scott747]

Also keep in mind in the previous disco they acknowledged that the official track was on the right side of guidance. Ensembles were heavily weighted further w with the stronger runs.

[Tx2005]

Ugh I’m not feeling too good with these trends. Plus, it seems like the recipe is there for strengthening up until landfall. A major is very much in play without a ton of time for evacuations given how uncertain the forecast is.

I really hope the models bounce back east but I have a bad feeling.

[jasons2k]

Just looking at tonight's infrared & WV loops, it seems Laura will go south of Cuba.

[DoctorMu]

GFS is a good bit west with Laura.

Marco and Laura criss-cross, with Marci to LA and Laura to TX. What a day.

[Andrew]

The early run of the 00z suite of models is not a good trend. Lets see what the ECMWF shows.

[sambucol]

Well, I’m not going to wait to be told to prepare for a strong hurricane. Tomorrow, I’ll be getting out my wood for the windows and have everything ready just in case.

[Belmer]

For everyones sake along the Gulf coast, I believe this time tomorrow night there should be much more clarity on Laura's future so those in its path can start preparing at a higher certainty since there will only be about 3.5 solid days to do so.

[Stormlover2020]

Belmer there u are!!! So u think this is a trend or just models still sucking like them have all year lol

[Andrew]

CMC is a good bit west and now near New Orleans.

[Belmer]

Belmer there u are!!! So u think this is a trend or just models still sucking like them have all year lol

A trend? Ha. The past 2 days have been absolutely frustrating for everyone involved tracking both Marco and Laura. Right when you think there's a trend the next suite of model runs make you throw everything back out the window. There was a 'trend' last night and we saw what happened this morning with the two. What I do see is the further south Laura remains and how much land interaction is involved as it transverses over Hispaniola and Cuba will be important in how it enters the eastern GoM. I won't feel confident until I see where the center is once its over Cuba.. wherever the true center may be right now. As Andrew stated, the 00z suite of models is not in our favor tonight, but they weren't in our favor last night either until this morning/afternoon.

I think we should all pitch in and give the NHC forecasters one day to drink this week away after Laura is gone.

[Cpv17]

I’m wondering if Laura could have a wsw movement with its track for a short period of time.

[Tx2005]

Looks like hmon puts Laura in SW LA as a cat 4. Shockingly that’s an East shift since the 18z was between Galveston and TX/LA border and 12z was Brownsville.

Who the hell knows.

Edit: hmon is at 939 mb just off the coast of SW LA at 96 hours.

Edit 2: I forgot that hmon 18z was in between Galveston and the TX/LA border, not Galveston directly.

[Stormlover2020]

Not big a shift

[Belmer]

HMON 00z last night had Galveston.
06z had Port Lavaca.
12z the TX/MX border.
18z Galveston

And now 00z tonight just west of Vermilion Bay, LA. Pretty much a full windshield wiper effect.

00z HWRF makes landfall just east of Vermilion Bay, pretty much mirroring the 18z run.

Not staying up for the Euro, but should start running here in the next 45 minutes for those who are curious to see what it does.

[Tx2005]

So it looks like so far:

ICON: TX/LA border 957 mb (similar to 18z)
GFS: Boliver/High Island 959 mb (west shift from 18z in SW LA)
CMC: New Orleans 992 mb (west shift from 12z western Florida panhandle)
HMON: SW LA 939 mb (east shift from 18z between Galveston and TX/LA border)
HWRF: central LA 942 mb (looks like practically the same as 18z)

[Scott747]

0z euro is already further w thru 48 hrs

[Scott747]

0z euro with a HUGE shift to the w.

[sambucol]

Texas bound?

[Tx2005]

Yikes on the Euro. It’s due south of New Orleans at about the same latitude as South Florida and the TX/MX border at 72 hours.

[Scott747]

Texas bound?

Yes, lower and mid Texas coast could be in play if it doesn't turn.