August 2020:

[tireman4]

Kingwood 36 is quoting Levi Cowan and his tweet...

With #Marco getting stronger (and thus taller/deeper), expect rightward shifts in the forecast track, since steering currents are less westward at higher altitudes.This increases risk of impacts to LA/MS/AL on Monday. Rain/flooding currently likely to be bigger hazard than wind pic.twitter.com/UmkCi2Qw4G
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 22, 2020

If you are asking the genesis of the comment.

[snowman65]

question....if Marco were to keep north and make landfall around the tx/la border or further east, what bearing would that have on were Laura ends up? Could they actually cross paths?

[Kingwood36]

Kingwood 36 is quoting Levi Cowan and his tweet...

With #Marco getting stronger (and thus taller/deeper), expect rightward shifts in the forecast track, since steering currents are less westward at higher altitudes.This increases risk of impacts to LA/MS/AL on Monday. Rain/flooding currently likely to be bigger hazard than wind pic.twitter.com/UmkCi2Qw4G
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 22, 2020

If you are asking the genesis of the comment.

Yes I was...sorry if I didn't make that clear

[jasons2k]

But the NHC forecast it to get stronger (and thus taller/deeper) and already accounted for that in the forecast track. I don't expect the NHC to shift significantly at this point.

[Stormlover2020]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=60

[Kingwood36]

Hmmmm...judging by this it looks like we wouldn't get much rain for this if it comes in like this or am I wrong?

[tireman4]

Hmmmm...judging by this it looks like we wouldn't get much rain for this if it comes in like this or am I wrong?

Remember, land falling systems can be tricky. The pros can chime in on this, but at this time, we do not have any idea what the moisture content will be from Marco. Also, tropical systems are notorious about dumping huge amounts of rain ( read training) and sometimes models cannot pick it up. Also, you have Allison, which was a torrential rainmaker, but a mid range tropical storm. Harvey, which was a hurricane at landfall, was a tropical storm when it arrived in Houston, was a huge rainmaker. I think they will know more as the system approaches. Plus, the water content in the air will be super saturated and the convective temperatures ( the sparking point to produce showers and thunderstorms, as it were) would be lowish (82 to 85 degrees). All those factors come into play as well.

[snowman65]

So many unknowns and shifts...people that want to leave may not know which direction to head until 24 hrs till landfall. Imagine that traffic nightmare.

[Kingwood36]

When do you think watches and warnings will be issued

[Cromagnum]

When do you think watches and warnings will be issued

Sunday afternoon at earliest for watches I would imagine.

[davidiowx]

Hmmmm...judging by this it looks like we wouldn't get much rain for this if it comes in like this or am I wrong?

I’m not sure how we wouldn’t get rain from that. It brings the center right over our area. There could be core rains for sure. Even it is is lopsided. But nobody knows right now and it’s going to just get more interesting each hour.

[djmike]

When will we start getting an idea on rainfall estimates?

[snowman65]

On the NHC cones, on Tues morning it has the 2 centers like 300 miles apart...is that even possible? Something has to give from one of them. They cant both occupy the same space....can they???

[snowman65]

If there is someone that has a way to overlap the 2 NHC cones on one picture to compare the timing. That would be something to see.....

[srainhoutx]

If there is someone that has a way to overlap the 2 NHC cones on one picture to compare the timing. That would be something to see.....

Travis Herzog via Twitter

[davidiowx]

Well this GFS run goes straight North into the New Orleans area. Wildly inconsistent. This is going to be tough, I feel for the NHC

[snowman65]

Well this GFS run goes straight North into the New Orleans area. Wildly inconsistent. This is going to be tough, I feel for the NHC

I just saw that....just crazy.

[TexasBreeze]

May end up not getting either if that pans out. Marco would create a path for Laura to follow maybe.

[Rip76]

Yes. Looking more and more like La., may be getting two storms this week.

Is there a sprinkler emoji?

[Rip76]

67kt FL winds