August 2020:

[Scott747]

Took a quick break down to the beach for some quick surf fishing. Just in case.

Wife smoked me as usual with a nice red.

Meantime the 0z GFS is slightly left again with Laura. Hurricane models up next.

[jasons2k]

There is no way Laura can maintain any kind of intensity if it hits every acre of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba on its way.

That's probably true - but have you looked-up the track of the Galveston hurricane of 1900?

[Scott747]

Question: When or how early will they begin issuing watches along the TX/La coastline?

For Marco in the next day or so if warranted.

[Belmer]

Question: When or how early will they begin issuing watches along the TX/La coastline?

Tropical Storm/Hurricane watches will be issued 48-hours beforehand. Warnings are issued 36-hours. So earliest watches would be issued for TX coastline would likely not be till Sunday afternoon/evening. Marco likely to make landfall Tuesday evening unless the trend for it to slow down continues.

[Rip76]

Heck we may have two watches in the same week.

[Andrew]

Concerning the trend for Laura overnight and today. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate the western gulf could be in play now and on top of that the environment looks a lot more favorable compared to what TD 14 has to deal with.

[Scott747]

Both hurricane models are coming further w so far on 0z.

[Cpv17]

UKMET model has I believe a major into Corpus Christi for Laura.

[Cpv17]

Question: When or how early will they begin issuing watches along the TX/La coastline?

Tropical Storm/Hurricane watches will be issued 48-hours beforehand. Warnings are issued 36-hours. So earliest watches would be issued for TX coastline would likely not be till Sunday afternoon/evening. Marco likely to make landfall Tuesday evening unless the trend for it to slow down continues.

I actually started noticing on some of the models that it had a possibility of slowing down a few days ago. There were hints of it.

[Tx2005]

HMON has Laura as a Cat 3 hitting Galveston.

[Rip76]

Jeez.

[Scott747]

HWRF ends up close to the last run. The ridge is there for a deep w gom track.

Euro next....

[Rip76]

Euro has been West too, correct?

[Cpv17]

Euro has been West too, correct?

Yep.

[don]

0z Euro has Marco taking a more northern track towards Louisiana then making a sharp turn to the west. Making landfall at Galveston as a weak tropical storm or depression. I'm not sure i buy the track though and the rapid weakening. While I due suspect dry air and shear should keep Marco in check, while saying that these small storms can sometimes strengthen more than anticipated.

[Scott747]

Not sure what to make of how the euro handles Marco in the short term. Rest of the 0z run is looking similar to the 12z but a little further w.

[don]

0z EURO shifted decently west with Laura now making landfall in southwest Louisiana.

[Scott747]

0z EURO shifted decently west with Laura now making landfall in southwest Louisiana.

Incoming trough is delayed which allows further movement towards the w before being picked up.

[Andrew]

Models are having major difficulties with how the two storms will interact with each other

[Stormlover2020]

So Andrew ur a pro what is ur gut telling u? Sometimes u gotta go with the gut