August 2020:

[Kingwood36]

Laura into new orleans...texas almost in the cone

[snowman65]

A little worrisome that 4pm track update on Laura is taking much longer than TD14 did. May be debating to pull the trigger on a much further west track. We shall see shortly...

I'm wondering if we are going to get split with one to either side of us....I'll take that.

[txbear]

NHC pushing Laura into New Orleans.

Have to wonder with Laura getting the big shift west, if she will swallow future-Marco whole and spit out his bones, as what happened with Don (thanks for posting that story/reminder). Lots of dynamics at play with this insane (i guess standard for 2020) set up.

[Cpv17]

NHC pushing Laura into New Orleans.

Have to wonder with Laura getting the big shift west, if she will swallow future-Marco whole and spit out his bones, as what happened with Don (thanks for posting that story/reminder). Lots of dynamics at play with this insane (i guess standard for 2020) set up.

I think that’s possible. Two systems cannot coexist with each other so close in proximity. The bigger one will kill off the smaller one.

[DoctorMu]

Track shifted more west..

in between Freeport and Rockport

However, that may be a marker of Laura's strength and westward path.

[tireman4]

Back home...


FXUS64 KHGX 212108
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Saturday Afternoon]...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop along the southwestern quadrant of the CWA through the rest
of the afternoon. There is still a slight chance for some additional
isolated development a little further north of this region, but most
of the activity is expected to continue to occur closer to the
coastal locations. This activity is expected to dissipate during the
evening hours and skies will lift and scatter out tonight. However,
a shortwave moving southward along the backside of the upper level
trough that is located over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Tennessee Valley, will move into Southeast Texas tonight and
could allow for showers to move into the CWA from the north. Low
temperatures tonight will be slightly higher...roughly in the mid
to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coastal regions.
Winds are expected continue light and variable through early
Saturday morning.

Another day of periods of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Saturday, given that the upper level trough will scoot a little
father southeast and into our region in response to the shortwave
moving through the local area early Saturday morning. High
temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to stay in the mid to
upper 90s across most of Southeast Texas...a degree or two lower in
some locations depending on where the storms develop during the
afternoon hours.

24

&&

.LONG TERM AND TROPICAL [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

So the forecast starts off relatively quiet with the ending of the
seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. Sunday hot and a little more
humid with seabreeze showers and thunderstorms possible. The
transition Monday into Tuesday with the approach of TD-14 (currently
forecast to be a hurricane in the west central Gulf) should bring an
increase in rain chances throughout the day first near the coast in
the morning expanding inland. Current track brings it toward the
area between Galveston and Matagorda Bay. This is a substantial
change from the forecast package this morning. Again the shear
should be high as it near the coast and weakening before landfall
appears likely but with the strong shear from the southwest ahead of
it the heavier rainfall and storms could be shunted up across the
corridor from Navasota to Houston to Galveston rather than tucked in
close to the center. The threat for heavy rainfall will probably
peak across the region Tuesday and Tuesday Night. If the track
doesn`t change then flash flood issues will be possible. Training of
storms will be a big concern. Stressing the IF on the track.
Uncertainly is still high after it gets in the central Gulf. Elevated
tide levels and minor storm surge a good bet with this track though
small variations in track may make a tremendous difference in
impacts. Based on this current NHC forecast the system should depart
the area Wednesday night but the moisture and storms will probably
continue through Wednesday night. Thursday will run with chance POPs
mainly eastern half of the area. But we should probably talk about
TS Laura...quite a bit of the extended guidance is tracking this
system west across the northern Gulf and could potentially reach the
western Gulf. Stay tuned this is going to be a long week.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend, particularly during the early
morning and afternoon hours. Deteriorating conditions can then be
expected into early-mid parts of next week in association with a
possible approaching tropical cyclone. See long term discussion
for those details.

Based on the latest NHC forecast, in general mariners should
prepare for:

- Beginning arrival of longer period swell: Sunday night & Monday
- Seas building to 6+ feet: late Monday
- Increased water levels & high risk of rip currents: late Monday
- Arrival of TS strength winds: Monday night

24

&&

AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period with brief periods
of MVFR-IFR conditions possible in and around SH/TS activity this
afternoon into early evening. TSRA will be accompanied by
frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Activity will
dissipate this evening and skies will lift and scatter out
shortly after. Winds will remain light and VRB through early
Saturday morning. A few rounds of SHRA/TSRA possible over the
waters and coastal regions of the CWA Saturday morning.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 97 73 98 74 / 20 30 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 97 75 96 76 / 10 30 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 93 82 90 80 / 20 30 20 20 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation/Marine...24
Long Term/Tropical/Fire Weather...45

[jasons2k]

I would like the forecast track for TD#14 to stay exactly where it is. A weak TS on that path would surely bring us some beneficial rains.

I just hope this isn't the beginning of a trend that may rob us...I'm having lots of Don flashbacks with this one.

[Cpv17]

I would like the forecast track for TD#14 to stay exactly where it is. A weak TS on that path would surely bring us some beneficial rains.

I just hope this isn't the beginning of a trend that may rob us...I'm having lots of Don flashbacks with this one.

It kinda looks like that may be possible. Could be a naked swirl lol

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has 14 being killed off as it nears landfall on the mid TX coast by Laura in 4 days. Meanwhile it has Laura headed for Louisiana or the upper TX coast.

[unome]

HGX posted a video update https://youtu.be/-ILlzXGoL8Y

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has Laura as a major into Cameron, LA.

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah not good, could end up like a rita/Ike track

[Tx2005]

Ugh

[Cpv17]

You know how it is here in SETX folks. It has happened on numerous occasions, especially lately. It’s feast or famine around these parts. You either get a drought or you get a flood. Just part of the territory we choose to live in. It’s kind of the new normal around here imo.

[cperk]

I don’t know about you guys but my focus is starting to shift to Laura.

[redneckweather]

Edit: nevermind

[Cromagnum]

NHC pushing Laura into New Orleans.

Have to wonder with Laura getting the big shift west, if she will swallow future-Marco whole and spit out his bones, as what happened with Don (thanks for posting that story/reminder). Lots of dynamics at play with this insane (i guess standard for 2020) set up.

I think that’s possible. Two systems cannot coexist with each other so close in proximity. The bigger one will kill off the smaller one.

Science is one thing. 2020 is another. We all may learn something new about storms next week.

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah my focus is Lauren now also

[Kingwood36]

So what happend to 14? Why is everyone forgetting about it

[don]

There really isn't a reason to dismiss future Marco. Even if it comes in weak the flooding threat could be moderate to high on the dirty side.