Here is proof for the newbies here...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
August 2020:
Don as an example is it losing strength at landfall. The NHC forecast for TD 14 has it losing strength over very warm water.
I keep losing my usernames. Formerly vertigoss/seanatsk.
Survived Ike in Katy, Harvey in Dickinson and Allison in my car.
Survived Ike in Katy, Harvey in Dickinson and Allison in my car.
Yeah big change on the 12z GFS.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
And it has Laura heading towards Texas now. lol
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6052
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Meanwhile, back at home...
00
FXUS64 KHGX 211550
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1050 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020
.UPDATE...
Will be increasing winds and seas for the marine areas mainly the
eastern half of the area (45+ knots/10+ ft) given the updated
track with NHC bringing it to High Island area. This will lead to
an increase in winds inland as well. Winds of sustained 25-45 mph
with higher gusts Monday late evening peaking Tuesday morning and
then well inland over the northeastern counties Tuesday night.
Locally heavy rainfall threat increasing for the eastern CWA with
this track. This forecast is highly dependent on the track and
this could mean the western CWA could be very dry compared to the
east given the shear aloft pushing the development to the east of
the center.
45
&&
.SHORT TERM [Today]...
Showers and thunderstorms continue near the Intercoastal Waterway
and out into the Gulf and will be expecting widely scattered
storms mainly south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 452 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/...
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday] & TROPICAL...
Much of fcst during this time period will be dependent on the
evolution (and possible interaction?) between TD`s 14 & 13.
On Sunday we should see what is currently TD 14 near the coast of
Honduras/Nicaragua emerge off the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico
where it`ll probably begin to restrengthen. Of course, the finer
details are not clear cut and dependent on many factors between
now and then (time over land, possible increasing ssw shear, and
even possibly interaction with what is now TD 13 further east).
Too many what ifs at this point, but the official NHC track brings
it close to the Tx/La coast Tue. All of Southeast Texas remains
within the "cone of uncertainty" this far out in regards to a
possible direct landfall.
As of now, one would anticipate some subsidence and mainly dry/hot
wx ahead of this system on Sunday. Moisture deepens Sunday Night
into Monday along with corresponding chances of precip...esp
closer to the coast. Winds/precip chances further increase closer
to eventual landfall Tue into Tue night...esp along and east of
the center wherever that might be. All-and-all, spend some time
this weekend going over your hurricane plans/preparations should
you need it. If you don`t have one, we have some tips on the
tropical section of our webpage.
Will leave some POPs in the fcst during the second half of the
workweek given the atypical possibility of two cyclones in the
Gulf at the same time and associated higher uncertainties. 47
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Will maintain VFR TAFs for the most part with this next package but
hard to ignore hi-res models for later this afternoon/early evening
as they are indicating the arrival of another shortwave (via the N/
NW flow aloft). Will likely keep with the VCSH wording for now...and
may expand it to the rest of our northern sites. With onshore winds
expected to slowly strengthen tonight, may also add VCSH mention to
GLS overnight/early tomorrow morning. 41
.MARINE...
Other than some isolated late night & morning tstms, fairly benign
conditions expected in the waters into Sunday. Deteriorating
conditions can then be expected into early-mid parts of next week
in association with a possible approaching tropical cyclone. See
long term discussion for those details.
Based on the latest NHC forecast, in general mariners should
prepare for:
- Beginning arrival of longer period swell: Sunday night & Monday
- Seas building to 6+ feet: late Monday
- Increased water levels & high risk of rip currents: late Monday
- Arrival of TS strength winds: Monday night
47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 74 98 73 98 / 10 10 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 98 78 97 75 96 / 10 10 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 82 93 82 92 / 20 10 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...45/Cotto/42
00
FXUS64 KHGX 211550
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1050 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020
.UPDATE...
Will be increasing winds and seas for the marine areas mainly the
eastern half of the area (45+ knots/10+ ft) given the updated
track with NHC bringing it to High Island area. This will lead to
an increase in winds inland as well. Winds of sustained 25-45 mph
with higher gusts Monday late evening peaking Tuesday morning and
then well inland over the northeastern counties Tuesday night.
Locally heavy rainfall threat increasing for the eastern CWA with
this track. This forecast is highly dependent on the track and
this could mean the western CWA could be very dry compared to the
east given the shear aloft pushing the development to the east of
the center.
45
&&
.SHORT TERM [Today]...
Showers and thunderstorms continue near the Intercoastal Waterway
and out into the Gulf and will be expecting widely scattered
storms mainly south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 452 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/...
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday] & TROPICAL...
Much of fcst during this time period will be dependent on the
evolution (and possible interaction?) between TD`s 14 & 13.
On Sunday we should see what is currently TD 14 near the coast of
Honduras/Nicaragua emerge off the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico
where it`ll probably begin to restrengthen. Of course, the finer
details are not clear cut and dependent on many factors between
now and then (time over land, possible increasing ssw shear, and
even possibly interaction with what is now TD 13 further east).
Too many what ifs at this point, but the official NHC track brings
it close to the Tx/La coast Tue. All of Southeast Texas remains
within the "cone of uncertainty" this far out in regards to a
possible direct landfall.
As of now, one would anticipate some subsidence and mainly dry/hot
wx ahead of this system on Sunday. Moisture deepens Sunday Night
into Monday along with corresponding chances of precip...esp
closer to the coast. Winds/precip chances further increase closer
to eventual landfall Tue into Tue night...esp along and east of
the center wherever that might be. All-and-all, spend some time
this weekend going over your hurricane plans/preparations should
you need it. If you don`t have one, we have some tips on the
tropical section of our webpage.
Will leave some POPs in the fcst during the second half of the
workweek given the atypical possibility of two cyclones in the
Gulf at the same time and associated higher uncertainties. 47
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Will maintain VFR TAFs for the most part with this next package but
hard to ignore hi-res models for later this afternoon/early evening
as they are indicating the arrival of another shortwave (via the N/
NW flow aloft). Will likely keep with the VCSH wording for now...and
may expand it to the rest of our northern sites. With onshore winds
expected to slowly strengthen tonight, may also add VCSH mention to
GLS overnight/early tomorrow morning. 41
.MARINE...
Other than some isolated late night & morning tstms, fairly benign
conditions expected in the waters into Sunday. Deteriorating
conditions can then be expected into early-mid parts of next week
in association with a possible approaching tropical cyclone. See
long term discussion for those details.
Based on the latest NHC forecast, in general mariners should
prepare for:
- Beginning arrival of longer period swell: Sunday night & Monday
- Seas building to 6+ feet: late Monday
- Increased water levels & high risk of rip currents: late Monday
- Arrival of TS strength winds: Monday night
47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 74 98 73 98 / 10 10 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 98 78 97 75 96 / 10 10 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 82 93 82 92 / 20 10 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...45/Cotto/42
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 546
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Gfs para - cat 2 upper Texas coast lol
Absolutely False. The SARS-CoV 2 virus disagrees. Masks have helped to stabilize cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We're about to see a massive surge in about 2-4 weeks with schools and universities spreading.redneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:09 am We are NOT in a pandemic anymore. We are below the threshold percentage wise on what is considered a pandemic. To make this weather related, the media is full of hot air and their models are driven by fear.
Come on fall weather!
It's relevant because socially distancing in a hurricane, including shelters could be difficult...if we need a massive evacuation, then hotels become spreader vessels.
[disclosure: One of my brothers is an MD, 25 year Marine/Navy conservative Republican, and helped write the Pandemic Handbook while part of the NSC. He's been highly critical of the Fed slow response, certain Governor response, and reopening of Universities in states like Texas]
To wit, the positive testing rate for COVID-19 is 20% in Texas, including Houston. The CDC threshold for safety is ≤5%.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
12z GFS has Laura strengthen before hitting Galveston as a moderate tropical storm.
Initialization on the GFS is fine. It just has stronger ridging and a weak system. Which if it were to be accurate instead of 14 being an issue in our neck of the woods. Laura would be. lol.
Not buying it but I've seen crazier solutions take place.
Not buying it but I've seen crazier solutions take place.
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