August 2020:

[don]

0z tropical models showing an upper Texas coast landfall.

[djmike]

Thats a pretty good consensus on models compared to yesterday’s wide spread. Unfortunately with Galveston, Houston and Beaumont becoming more and more at play.

[Scott747]

Hmm... Hurricane watch for part of the YP.

[Scott747]

Hmm x 2.

Hurricane on approach to landfall on the upper Texas coast.

[jasons2k]

Hmm x 2.

Hurricane on approach to landfall on the upper Texas coast.

Yep, the NHC has a hurricane approaching Galveston Bay on Tuesday evening.

[don]

Wasn't expecting that

[Kingwood36]

I'm in freeport and starting to watch this a little closely now

[Scott747]

Stewart is notorious for being a little aggressive on intensity forecasts. But if that shear is less than forecast we definitely could see a stronger storm than initially thought.

[Rip76]

Wow okay.

[don]

This is why they are thinking it may be a hurricane by the time the storm approaches Texas

By
120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical
wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which
would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those
models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt
well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has
resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone
is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to
but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land
interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the
guidance envelope.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0258.shtml?

[Belmer]

Biggest unknown will be the amount of mid-level dry air this may ingest once it approaches the northern/central Gulf coast along with the shear. However, I'm not too inclined to believe that TD14 will begin weakening as it approaches the upper TX/LA coast as models have been showing. I see the NHC now shows a Hurricane making landfall, going against what has been shown today.. Models will be a tool to use, but I wouldn't weigh any certain one heavier than the other at the moment. Hopefully we'll get some upper air samples soon.

Stewart's latest discussion below:

WTNT44 KNHC 210258
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed
near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level
circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center of
the broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the
cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the
very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the
north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at
4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed,
which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical
storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection
becomes more persistent.

The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also
slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward
or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has
required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the
next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no
longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or
Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC
forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track
due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida
and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is
expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward
direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern
Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track
lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the
middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the
NOAA-HCCA corrected model.

Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center
and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as
much as previously expected, which has significant implications in
the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach
hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side
of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast
in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan,
followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures
along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C
and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt
through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive
outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By
120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical
wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which
would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those
models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt
well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has
resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone
is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to
but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land
interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the
guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to
produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,
beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near
or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm
Warning are in effect.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it
will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.
Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of
this system over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[tireman4]

Let me throw this seasonal PSA out there. The next few days will be ever changing. Remember to review your kits, have your contingency plans up to date and monitor this fluid situation. The pro and amateur mets on here will do their best answer your questions as you pose them. Be patient, for they have to be vigilant as well. Be weather aware. Remain vigilant.

[Cpv17]

I just want to remind everyone that if this goes into Galveston the western side of the viewing area could only see minimal impacts. When Ike hit Galveston all we got here in Wharton was a few clouds and that’s it. Not one drop of rain. If this goes into Matagorda then all of the viewing area will see impacts.

[snowman65]

Wasn't expecting that

I was....called it yesterday. Nothing stays tropical storm in August anymore once it reaches the Gulf....wouldnt be surprised to see the number 2 pop up....

[Ptarmigan]

To see Tropical Depression 14 forecasted as a hurricane in 5 days is a bit concerning. I would not be surprised if it is Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

[Rip76]

Still tons of dry air out there.

[Cpv17]

The NHC is calling for two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time come Monday/Tuesday. Try wrapping your brain around that

[don]

Wasn't expecting that

I was....called it yesterday. Nothing stays tropical storm in August anymore once it reaches the Gulf....wouldnt be surprised to see the number 2 pop up....

Im not surprised about the hurricane forecast I just wasn't expecting them to pull the trigger on that this soon.

[don]

0z GFS has landfall into southwest Louisiana

[Cpv17]

Wasn't expecting that

I was....called it yesterday. Nothing stays tropical storm in August anymore once it reaches the Gulf....wouldnt be surprised to see the number 2 pop up....

Im not surprised about the hurricane forecast I just wasn't expecting them to pull the trigger on that this soon.

Well if Stewart is on duty that wouldn’t surprise me too much.