August 2020:

[tropiKal]

The further west, the better. Texas and Mexico deserve this storm, it would be a total waste if it turns to Louisiana.

[DoctorMu]

So re: TD14...it could come down to how much shear there is over the Gulf in 5 days...

[jasons2k]

Ron Says:

[tireman4]

Question for the Pros....Have we ever seen two Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf at the same time?

[tireman4]

From the 11 am that caught my eye.....the dynamics are there...

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

[Texaspirate11]

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Texaspirate11]

seems like when early models "hit' us they end up in LA

Really hoping that’s the case! We are expecting our second child any day now and if she doesn’t come by Tuesday we go in to have the baby. Last thing I want is a hurricane here during it!

Dont name her Laura - I wish you much joy and safe delivery for your wife and baby.

[srainhoutx]

Update on TD 14 from Jeff:



Tropical Depression # 14 forms in the NW Caribbean Sea

A threat to the NW Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week.

Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.

Discussion:
Visible satellite images indicate that weak westerly winds have developed on the southern side of the well defined tropical wave axis over the NW Caribbean Sea and that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite images also show the formation of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northern semi-circle of the circulation and the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW

Track:
The depression is moving toward the northwest Caribbean Sea and this general W to WNW motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Over the weekend the system turn toward the NW around the southwestern side of a building sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track of the system toward the NW Gulf of Mexico by early next week as a weakness remains near the TX coast and high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.

Intensity:
Conditions are favorable for additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea over the next 24-36 hours before the system interacts with the Yucatan. As 14 moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the current strong southwesterly shear on the SE/E side of the large scale trough over the NW Gulf will begin to subside and conditions will become increasing favorable for development. It is uncertain how quickly the shear will relax and if dry air near the TX coast could become entrained into the circulation, but overall conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development.

[DoctorMu]

Update on TD 14 from Jeff:



Tropical Depression # 14 forms in the NW Caribbean Sea

A threat to the NW Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week.

Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.

Discussion:
Visible satellite images indicate that weak westerly winds have developed on the southern side of the well defined tropical wave axis over the NW Caribbean Sea and that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite images also show the formation of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northern semi-circle of the circulation and the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW

Track:
The depression is moving toward the northwest Caribbean Sea and this general W to WNW motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Over the weekend the system turn toward the NW around the southwestern side of a building sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track of the system toward the NW Gulf of Mexico by early next week as a weakness remains near the TX coast and high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.

Intensity:
Conditions are favorable for additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea over the next 24-36 hours before the system interacts with the Yucatan. As 14 moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the current strong southwesterly shear on the SE/E side of the large scale trough over the NW Gulf will begin to subside and conditions will become increasing favorable for development. It is uncertain how quickly the shear will relax and if dry air near the TX coast could become entrained into the circulation, but overall conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development.

So, the slower TD14 moves, the greater the potential intensity in the Gulf.

[bikerack]

Question for the Pros....Have we ever seen two Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf at the same time?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 3844508673

The only two occasions where Atlantic TCs were both at least of tropical storm strength using IBTrACS Gulf of Mexico definition that I could find are: September 5, 1933 (Treasure Coast and Cuba-Brownsville) and June 18, 1959 (Unnamed and Beulah).

[davidiowx]

seems like when early models "hit' us they end up in LA

Really hoping that’s the case! We are expecting our second child any day now and if she doesn’t come by Tuesday we go in to have the baby. Last thing I want is a hurricane here during it!

Dont name her Laura - I wish you much joy and safe delivery for your wife and baby.

Thank you very much! Definitely not naming her Laura, but my wife's name is Laura. So this is pretty interesting to say the least

[jasons2k]

Congratulations and hope all goes well for you and your family next week!

[Scott747]

12z GFS with a shift to central Louisiana.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs sucks it’s now towards sw la not central

[Scott747]

Gfs sucks it’s now towards sw la not central

You're quite the wishcaster. The model always 'sucks' if it doesn't fit your wanted track....

[snowman65]

Just my 2 cents but I'm going to say at least CAT 1 by landfall, wherever that may be. Over the last few years, nothing stays a TS after it gets to the gulf....

[Cpv17]

12z GFS with a shift to central Louisiana.

12z ICON is into Louisiana too for the most part.

[Stormlover2020]

Lol gfs has been so bad this year, it didn’t develop Hanna till 2 days before landfall.

[Scott747]

12z GFS with a shift to central Louisiana.

12z ICON is into Louisiana too for the most part.

Correct. Surprisingly the ICON has actually been solid on this for quite a few runs. Still don't have full confidence in in but has warranted a look.

There will be some moving around with the models until recon gets in there. 18 and 0z runs tonight will be key as far as models go.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS with a shift to central Louisiana.

12z ICON is into Louisiana too for the most part.

Correct. Surprisingly the ICON has actually been solid on this for quite a few runs. Still don't have full confidence in in but has warranted a look.

There will be some moving around with the models until recon gets in there. 18 and 0z runs tonight will be key as far as models go.

I personally think this is a Louisiana storm and td 13 is an eastern Gulf storm. Just my opinion as of now.