August 2020:

[Scott747]

Quite the change in overnight and early morning operational and ensemble runs.

First off 97l is picked up by both of the operational GFS and Euro runs with a TS off of the middle and upper Texas coast.

Guidance has shifted further w for TD 13 making a deeper run into the Gulf which the NHC adjusted on the 5 am package.

Of course these are still low confidence forecasts until we get recon data from the flights today which we should begin to see by 18z or 0z tonight.

[Scott747]

97l continues to organize. Latest TWO is up to 90%.

I'd guess that recon may close it off this afternoon and begin advisories at 4.

[cperk]

I think there's a pretty good chance that recon closes 97L off this afternoon.

[vci_guy2003]

Board is pretty quiet for a potential hurricane heading this way. Is the discussion going on somewhere else?

[srainhoutx]

97L looks to have become better organized overnight. I suspect we will have a TD or possibly a TS on our hands when RECON investigates today. The 12Z track guidance does raise an eyebrow.

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, back home....in the short term..

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201153
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Early this morning, scattered strong thunderstorms continue to
develop approximately 20 to 40 miles offshore Galveston. This
activity is expected to remain offshore and diminish over the next
couple of hours. Gusty winds up to 25 knots will be possible
around KGLS through 14Z. Spotty showers/storms are again possible
this afternoon, impacting mainly KLBX and KGLS. Confidence in
occurrence and coverage is low; thus, did not mention VCTS or TSRA
in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...
Typical summer weather conditions are expected through most of the
short term with onshore flow returning to the region. Dry air mass
at low to mid levels still dominates the region; however, an
elongated upper-level trough centered over the Lower MS Valley and
Tennessee Valley may still provide some forcing, especially in the
afternoons. This pattern will allow for some shower/storm
development with daytime heating and sea/land breeze interactions.
The best focus for this activity will be along the coastal counties
and/or offshore.

850 hPa temperatures will cool into the upper teens today and
Friday. The exception will be across our far western Counties --
along and west of a line from College Station to Columbus to El
Campo --- where temperatures are progged to be near 20+ degrees
Celsius. This will give us temperatures in the 90s; though it will
feel muggy (at least south of I-10) as low-level moisture increase
with the surface south-southeast flow.

05

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Weekend wx looks fairly uneventful with temps around climo and
just some isolated diurnally driven precip closer to the coast.

Tropical wave currently over the cntl Caribbean (invest 97L) is
forecast to emerge off the Yucatan into the Gulf on Sunday and
continue on a wnw track. Models remain somewhat undecided in
regards to the degree of organization (whether a tighter sfc low
develops and if so its strength/position or if it just remains an
open wave). For what its worth at the moment, most of the global
models indicate a decent amount of shear situated across the nw
Gulf early in the week...but regardless...it remains something to
be watched. We should see the arrival of deeper moisture and a
corresponding increase in rain chances Mon-Wed in association with
this system.

TD 13, currently in the cntl Atlantic is forecast to make its wnw
toward the Florida Straits around Monday. With the typical
disclaimers about long range fcsts and the uncertainties, given
the fcst pattern 7+ days out it appears this one may be a greater
risk to the eastern parts of the Gulf Coast. 47

MARINE...
Light winds and low seas going into the weekend. A tropical
disturbance will emerge off the Yucatan on Sunday and make its way
toward the western Gulf Coast early next week. We should see a
corresponding increase in easterly winds, building seas and
precipitation chances. Mariners should keep up with the latest
forecasts in regards to this disturbance as they are subject to
changes. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 71 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 96 74 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 81 94 82 92 / 20 20 20 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

97L looks to have become better organized overnight. I suspect we will have a TD or possibly a TS on our hands when RECON investigates today. The 12Z track guidance does raise an eyebrow.

Well, after the many years I have known and trust your forecasts and opinions, when you raise an eyebrow, I start noticing items...

[Texaspirate11]

seems like when early models "hit' us they end up in LA

[TexasBreeze]

GFS- now 14 could be a sheared mess if it slows down in the wnw gulf and a stronger TD 13 gets into the east gulf. 2 systems close together don't do well together. The EC says 14 is stronger than 13 is while in the gulf. Our current north flow and dry air must erode too if it wants to strengthen.

[davidiowx]

seems like when early models "hit' us they end up in LA

Really hoping that’s the case! We are expecting our second child any day now and if she doesn’t come by Tuesday we go in to have the baby. Last thing I want is a hurricane here during it!

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Depression 14 forms in the Western Caribbean Sea.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located in the Caribbean Sea, at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

[DoctorMu]

97L looks to have become better organized overnight. I suspect we will have a TD or possibly a TS on our hands when RECON investigates today. The 12Z track guidance does raise an eyebrow.

Yeah and wow - moving towards that NAVGEM solution.

[cperk]

seems like when early models "hit' us they end up in LA

Yeah but something tells me you're prepared anyway.

[DoctorMu]

seems like when early models "hit' us they end up in LA

Yeah but something tells me you're prepared anyway.

like Harvey. Gulf temp is 88°F. It's nuclear fission or potentially fusion out there.

[cperk]

Man i am anxious to see the NHC's initial track.

[cperk]

Tropical Depression 14 forms in the Western Caribbean Sea.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located in the Caribbean Sea, at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

srainhoutx any thoughts on the initial track of td14.

[Rip76]

Man i am anxious to see the NHC's initial track.

11am?

[srainhoutx]

Nice discussion from the NHC regarding TD 14. I'd start checking my Hurricane plans and restock those supplies if you haven't already. This is just the beginning of a marathon we may be facing regarding potential tropical troubles heading our way over the 3 to 5 weeks...

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Visible satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed
weather moving across the central Caribbean Sea has developed a
closed surface circulation, with the center embedded beneath
cellular convective cells and a large cirrus canopy. Also,
convection has increased in organization, and TAFB and SAB have
given the system classification of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt,
respectively. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen with maximum winds of 30 kt. An
expected ASCAT pass later today and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon should give us a better
handle on both the depression's center location and its maximum
winds.

The depression continues to move westward at a pretty good clip,
currently estimated to be on a heading of 280 degrees at 18 kt.
This motion is being driven by the western extent of the Bermuda
high, which currently noses into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
However, a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
become the main driver in the coming days, causing the cyclone to
slow down and turn rather suddenly toward the west-northwest and
northwest in the next 24-36 hours. A general northwestward motion
should then continue until the end of the 5-day forecast period,
bringing the system across the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and
into the central and western Gulf of Mexico early next week. Most
of the reliable track models are clustered close to one another,
and the official NHC track forecast is therefore very close to the
multi-model consensus aids, including the HCCA model.

Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours,
environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The
magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for
at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the
deep, warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where sea
surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these
conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more
muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to
closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper
end of the guidance envelope. It is possible that the depression
could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days. Some weakening is
anticipated when the center moves over land, and then
re-strengthening is likely after it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
There will be an increase in shear over the Gulf in 4-5 days, and
right now there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in how this will
affect the cyclone's intensity at that point. For now, the
official forecast on days 4 and 5 shows a flat-lined intensity, and
this scenario lies a little above the ICON intensity consensus and
the HCCA model solution.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could produce
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the
coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands beginning tonight through
Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches
could be required for a portion of that area later today.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it
will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.
Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of
this system over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.1N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.5N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.3N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.1N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.4N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 19.9N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 25.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tireman4]

A close up of Tropical Depression 14

[tropiKal]

Devastating floods are better than being hot and dry? Okay.....

Hot and dry for too long just isn't good. Any relief is needed, even if it comes from a cyclone.

Plus, which weather nut wouldn't get excited at the prospect of a tropical storm?