August 2020:

[redneckweather]

Getting our clock cleaned in Lake Conroe area. Power is knocked out. The donut effect has officially collapsed.

[unome]

that was quite welcome, just wish I had mowed last night. quite a variance in nearby rain totals, from 0" to 2+"

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Screenshot_2020-08-17 Harris County Flood Warning System - Copy.png

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Somewhat tricky morning ahead as lingering showers and an
occasional thunderstorm gradually dissipate. As this occurs, we
should generally arrive at VFR conditions with winds around or
below 10 knots roughly out of the north (variable between NW and
NE). Low chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon, but best chances will be west of the terminals, which
did not get worked over by overnight storms. Have VCs at Houston
metro sites just in case.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 440 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020/...

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

Line of thunderstorms on the cold front from earlier tonight is
dissipating, but some showers and thunderstorms are lingering into
the early morning hours. While some chance for showers and storms
may carry on into the day, the trend will generally be downward.

After that, drier air will push into the area behind the front,
which will apply a slight downward nudge to temperatures, if only
through more efficient radiational cooling. There isn`t much, if
any, cold advection to speak of in this new airmass, so we aren`t
going to get any real relief there. It`s the dry air decreasing
our overnight temperature floor that will do a lot of the heavy
lifting here.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Monday]...

The long term begins with lower rain and storm chances as PWATs drop
around 1.5 inches for Wednesday. Although it will be relatively dry,
near to slightly above average temperatures are expected as 850 hPa
temperatures range from 18 to 22 Celsius. Highs will generally be in
the 90s to near 100. Thermal profiles hint at a decently capped
environment at 850:700 hPa; however, increased instability could
help to break the cap enough to produce showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon/early evening.

A longwave trough deepens over the eastern CONUS and retrogrades over
TX by Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Several weak
shortwaves embedded along the southern periphery of this longwave
will approach the region Thursday and Friday. These impulses of
energy will provide enough lift for rain and storm chances under
increasing low to mid level moisture. Confidence is still low
regarding strength/coverage. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent
agreement, bringing increasing chances of precipitation both
Thursday and Friday. The Canadian is the most aggressive solution but
the bulk of the precipitation remains over the Gulf waters. As of
now, have low-end precipitation chances, mainly during the afternoon
hours.

As we head into the weekend and early next week, warmer conditions
and precipitation chances will be the main weather features.
Saturday and Sunday look warm and humid with daytime highs in the
90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon. Precipitation chances increase after Sunday as an
inverted trough crosses the Gulf and tracks west into the Texas
coast, though confidence in location/timing remains low given
typical timing differences in models at this range.

Warm conditions continue throughout the week with temperatures near
to slightly above average. Heat index values will mainly range from
100 to 108 degrees.


.MARINE...

Surviving showers and storms are pushing out over the Gulf early
this morning, carrying with them gusty winds. As this activity
dies out, winds should slowly become more moderate. Look for
offshore to variable winds for a day or two, with the more typical
onshore pattern returning in the second half of the week.


.CLIMATE...

Records! Records! Records! Both Houston climate sites tied their
daily record highs yesterday (IAH at 102 and Hobby at 100, both
in 2011), as did Galveston (tying its record mark of 95, from
1988). The rain and frontal passage should finally give us a
reprieve from our stretch of hot temperatures and records in the
foreseeable future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 98 77 99 76 99 / 40 0 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 95 81 94 / 30 10 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs/05

[Cromagnum]

0.00" from that storm this morning. It swirled around my house and poofed without a drop.

[Rip76]

Complete poof here.

[Cpv17]

Nothing here either.

[Katdaddy]

Gusty 30-40MPH winds and a 10 second burst of rain.

[jasons2k]

I guess I got lucky this time .69” - the most since June. It was badly needed and very welcome.

[txbear]

Not much here either. Seemed like my area got shorted by what looked like multiple outflow boundaries - the front itself plus outflows from the actual storms. BUT man oh man does that cloudy sky this morning at least look like an autumnal post-cold front sky. One of these days, the temps will actually feel it, too.

And now we continue on with our traditional "it's hot, summer sucks" feelings. Which is not wrong. And of course, tropic watching.

[DoctorMu]

0.35 inches of rain IMBY from a back end cell about 6 am. We'll take it after getting fried yesterday afternoon.

[don]

Got about an inch of rain last night so I'm happy lol

[JDsGN]

Just over a 1/4 inch here in Fairfield with lots of thunder and lightning for 3+ hours. Glad we got something.

[djmike]

It did feel awesome this morning. Still kind of does. Low humidity. Almost like a teeny tiny fall teaser.

[Stormlover2020]

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... eating-up/

[Cpv17]

I sure hope we can get some rain here pretty soon. Been 3 weeks now without anything. The CPC forecast is calling for some rain, but honestly I just don’t see it unless we get a tc in here.

[DoctorMu]

94°F never felt so good. lol

DP still in the 60s...currently 63°F. Hoping the dewpoint will ease into the upper 50s tonight. But I'll take the low 60s!

[Scott747]

Might be time to pay attention to 97l. 6z GFS has a strong TS heading towards the middle Texas coast. The model has been performing poorly this year but there is some support from the Euro and Canadian with a weaker system further s.

[cperk]

Scott747 you're right we could have a tropical system in the GOM this weekend model support is increasing.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning tropical outlook from Jeff:



A pair of tropical waves continues westward.

97L:
Tropical wave axis has moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight and continues westward at around 20mph. Visible satellite images show a sharp wave axis and scattered deep convection near and around the wave envelop. The fast forward motion is expected to slow in the next 48 hours as 97L reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. While deterministic model solution are not overly impressed with this wave, several of the CMC and GFS ensemble members continue to show development of 97L has it reaches the western Caribbean Sea this weekend. NHC currently gives 97L a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico will be complex this weekend as the current trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico slowly begins to weaken and lift northward while a sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic begins to build westward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With this steering, if 97L were to develop, it would likely get pulled into the Gulf of Mexico and then slow its forward motion as the steering changes over the Gulf of Mexico from being dominated by a strong and deep trough to greater influences from the sub-tropical ridge. Deterministic and ensemble guidance this morning has significant spread after days 4-5 and has had little consistency on run to run of the models.

With this said, 97L will need to be monitored closely for development in the western Caribbean Sea and for a potential movement into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend.

98L:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles SW of the Cape Verde Island is moving slowly westward. This wave is attached to the mid Atlantic ITCZ or monsoon trough currently and in addition has a second tropical wave close to its east. This is a complex tropical cyclone genesis profile and global forecast models have been struggling with how and when 98L develops over the last 24 hours. Little to no development is going to happen as long as 98L is attached to the ITCZ. However once 98L moves away from the ITCZ, development chances increase and NHC currently gives the system a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days.

A stout mid level high pressure ridge is in place over the central Atlantic Ocean and this will drive 98L westward over the next 5 days. This ridge is forecast to build westward and should keep the system on a general WNW to W track toward or just north of the Caribbean Islands by this weekend. A stronger, more developed, system will track likely more to the right while a weaker, more shallow system will likely track more leftward. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with 98L both on when and where an actual low level center forms and how strong the system may become in the longer range.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Patchy shallow fog around KCXO should dissipate around 13-14Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with periods of mid to
high clouds late this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible west of I-45 this afternoon, but minimal impacts are
expected around KCLL and KSGR terminals.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
GOES Total PW product shows a north-south axis of 1.7" values
stretching across western parts of the CWA. East of I-45, they`re
generally <1.4". Toward peak heating, say 2-7pm, fcst soundings
show a narrow saturated area at around 750mb and no capping so
cannot rule out a few isolated tstms as some of the hires guidance
suggests. Otherwise, sunny skies and hot (albeit drier)
conditions will prevail today. A reinforcing surge of dry air
should filter southward into the region late this afternoon and
tonight which should allow for continued nice wx (by Aug
standards) with low RH`s thru midweek. 47

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Upper level longwave over MS Valley/eastern CONUS retrogrades west
into southeast TX later on Wednesday, bringing a series of subtle
waves along its southern edge Thursday and Friday. Given the nature
of these weak shortwaves and a dry airmass persisting over our CWA,
it is difficult to pinpoint timing/location of any showers/storms
development. Most deterministic guidance brings precipitation
along/over the coast during the morning and inland in the afternoon.
This seems to be in response to these mid/upper level lifting and a
quasi-stationary surface boundary meandering along the coast. With
this in mind, have left slight rain/storm chances along and south of
I-10 for Thursday. A slightly stronger vort max rides along the flow
aloft Thu night into Friday afternoon. With broad synoptic lift
provided by the upper level jet and a surface boundary (or
boundaries), better chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible during this time frame.

Pattern aloft transitions to northeast/east Sunday into early next
week as an inverted trough over the Gulf tracks westward into TX.
This will be keep the potential for periodic showers and storms
early next week. Speaking of next week, this will be a potential
period to monitor as models continue to track different tropical
systems close or into the Gulf. Confidence remains low given the
inherent uncertainty at this range, but it is worthy to keep an eye
on.

Temperatures throughout the extended look fairly close to mid August
normals. Highs will generally be in the 90s and lows in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

05

MARINE... Light winds & low seas should persist for the next
several days. A more prevalent onshore flow should resume this
weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 70 97 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 74 97 74 96 / 10 0 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 93 81 91 / 0 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$