July 2020

[Cpv17]

Sooooo what's the next storm on the radar?

Gonzalo. If it can survive the eastern Caribbean graveyard and make it to the western Caribbean then watch out!

[don]

Yes I agree but we still should not let our guard down, as an outer feeder band could set up over the area i would like to get in range of the HRRR model before i feel confident were out of the woods.

[Dls2010r]

I agree with Don. Ive been watching for many yrs this forum. Stop whining. We don't need this. It drives me crazy when I listen to certain people

[Dls2010r]

And Space City Weather Sucks.

[jasons2k]

Wow.

[Dls2010r]

wow what look at there old posts. the dang storm is gonna do what it wants i personally dont want it to water my lawn

[Kingwood36]

wow what look at there old posts. the dang storm is gonna do what it wants i personally dont want it to water my lawn

Its not lol jk

[Dls2010r]

lol i hope your right im sorry guys but i just here complaining and im over it. stop bitching cause were not getting the storm. be thankful.

[TexasBreeze]

Probably similar to Monday where storms gather on the coastal areas and the Woodlands north see limited action.

[don]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
422 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Night)

CHANGES: Dropped the TS Watch for southern Liberty County and
added a TS Warning for inland Jackson and Matagorda Counties.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass southward
along the Texas coast and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect from High Island to San Luis Pass. TD 8 continues to churn
in the west central Gulf of Mexico and satellite imagery is
looking more impressive with the storm.

A few showers and thunderstorms developed along the coast but most
of the area has been hot and dry this afternoon. A weak disturbance
rotating around the broad circulation of TD 8 could bring additional
showers into the coastal sections of SE TX tonight. PW values
increase overnight and reach 2.20 inches by morning. With the
increase in moisture, showers near the coast will begin to
increase in coverage toward sunrise. As TD 8 moves closer to the
coast, moisture levels will increase further reaching 2.60 inches
by tomorrow afternoon. Fcst soundings look saturated between
18-00z and will carry chance PoPs over the NW zones, likely PoPs
over the central zones and numerous at the coast. Rain chances
will continue Friday night as TD 8 nears the middle Texas Texas
Coast. With PW values at or above 2.50 inches, feel there is some
threat for locally heavy rainfall totals. Will hold off on a Flash
Flood Watch for now but the southern part of the region may
require a Watch with later updates. 43

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

The circulation of TD 8 will move inland early Saturday but a
weak trough will develop from the circulation and extend east
northeast across the NW gulf. The trough will remain nearly
stationary through Monday and serve as focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. PW values remain near 2.50
inches on Saturday and will mention locally heavy rain for
for the southern half of the region. PW values decrease a bit
Sunday and Monday but will remain close to 2.25 inches both days.
Probably still some risk for locally heavy rains both days with
the high PW air and the stationary trough. Clouds and precip
should keep high temperatures a bit below climo. Moisture levels
will drop a bit more on Tuesday and Wednesday but it still looks
sufficient for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
MaxT on both days will show a gradual warming trend as convection
will become more scattered. 500 mb heights will begin to increase
on Thursday as upper level ridging over the Rockies begins to
expand. Moisture levels will decrease further and temperatures
will begin to warm with high temperatures probably making a return
into the mid/upper 90s by the end of next week. 43

[cperk]

I’m gonna use TD8 as a practice run and make sure I have my preparations in order as the season is just going to ramp up from here.

[Kingwood36]

Well im in freeport and we r under a TS warning so who knows maybe we will get a little rain

[Kingwood36]

Let's say for instance this does a rapid intensity would that change the track?

[Cpv17]

Let's say for instance this does a rapid intensity would that change the track?

The stronger the storm the more likely it will feel the high pressure to its north which could push it even further south.

[Cromagnum]

So much wishcasting going on.

[don]

18z HMON and HWRF are in and both show a hurricane hitting the middle Texas coast but also show a much more expansive storm that isn't as compact a previous runs. And has a lot more moisture on the dirty side fwiw.

[Cromagnum]

This thing has a huge cloud presence.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

[biggerbyte]

I'm not sure how to fairly define a wish caster, or folks that miss out on rough weather. There are some folks who live for this stuff. We have tornado chasers, and even Hurricane chasers that put themselves in harms way for the thrill of it all and we don't look down upon them. I personally like a big snow and get jealous when others get it instead of us, or being in a simple tropical rain maker, while others just don't care about any of it.. I would never be as daring as others, otherwise. Anyway, there are weather junkies that love the experience.

I'm concerned about the situation this year with covid 19 being such an issue. Logic says the thrill is gone when we are dealing with multiple problems. The very area that covid 19 has hit so hard may end up with two systems back to back if the steering mechanisms don't change over the next few days.

[ccbluewater]

Man the satellite presentation is really impressive for a TD. I am thinking Recon will find what it needs to upgrade to Hannah this trip. D-Max should be interesting in the morning, and may catch some people by suprise. Hopefully not though..

[Cpv17]

18z HMON and HWRF are in and both show a hurricane hitting the middle Texas coast but also show a much more expansive storm that isn't as compact a previous runs. And has a lot more moisture on the dirty side fwiw.

Just checked the 18z HWRF run. Man, that run goes bonkers where I’m at in the Wharton/El Campo area with rainfall.