June 2020

[Cromagnum]

Not looking forward to the blast furnace coming.

[Texaspirate11]

I don’t know about you guys but I’m sick and tired of cristobal and wish it would just dissipate in the boc right now. We have been watching this storm for days it’s only moved a couple hundred miles at best this is agonizing.

I know what you mean. I was watching every hour but now I give up and am just checking once or twice. Just about done with him. Lol

AND ITS GOING TO LOUISIANA ANYWAY.

[cperk]

I don’t know about you guys but I’m sick and tired of cristobal and wish it would just dissipate in the boc right now. We have been watching this storm for days it’s only moved a couple hundred miles at best this is agonizing.

I know what you mean. I was watching every hour but now I give up and am just checking once or twice. Just about done with him. Lol

AND ITS GOING TO LOUISIANA ANYWAY.

Yes and I hope it's a weak system for their sake.

[Rip76]

Not looking forward to the blast furnace coming.

This is going to be horrible.

[tireman4]

According to this Merida's pressure is at 1003mb, and it hasn't been lower than this all morning.

METAR for: MMMD (Merida Intl, --, MX)
Text: MMMD 051445Z 03008KT 5SM -RA BKN009 OVC070 24/23 A2962 RMK SLP041 57006 991 60045 8/42/
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 inches Hg (1003.1 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1004.1 mb]
Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.1 m/s)
Visibility: 5 sm ( 8 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/d ... &layout=on0 likes

[DoctorMu]

The weaker the better. We might even get a sip of lemonade if Cristobal comes in disorganized enough. Less heat furnace as well.

[djmike]

So...are there any other areas of disturbed weather showing possibilities yet or no? Ive moved on from Cristobal.

[Cpv17]

So...are there any other areas of disturbed weather showing possibilities yet or no? Ive moved on from Cristobal.

Nope. At least not yet. I would expect at least one more storm in June though. In July it seems things quiet down every year at least from what I’ve seen over the years. But I would expect August and September to be very active this year. Texas will more than likely get a storm in my opinion, possibly even more than that. I’m anxious to see how SAL will look this season as I believe that’s the only thing that could slow this season down. Shear looks to be below normal due the the strengthening La Niña and SST’s look to be above normal for most of the basin.

[davidiowx]

How crazy would it be if Recon gets in there and then the models come out with the recon data and it shifts 500 miles to the west or east! Highly unlikely but that would be bizarre to say the least. I remember Ike was forecast to go up the eastern seaboard, then after a few days up towards the Florida panhandle, then once it was on the tip of Cuba, it was showing Brownsville to Corpus then ultimately Galveston. That was a wild ride.

[Cromagnum]

Chances of that are zero. The storm is about as weak as it gets already, and any strengthening just makes it feel the steering currents more. The high pressure system to the north would have to drastically build up to force it west.

[cperk]

How crazy would it be if Recon gets in there and then the models come out with the recon data and it shifts 500 miles to the west or east! Highly unlikely but that would be bizarre to say the least. I remember Ike was forecast to go up the eastern seaboard, then after a few days up towards the Florida panhandle, then once it was on the tip of Cuba, it was showing Brownsville to Corpus then ultimately Galveston. That was a wild ride.

Man do I remember that is an excellent example of how bad Models can initially be.

[tireman4]

Wxman57's thoughts....Looks like hot dry side for us..


Just got home. Started today at 3:45am again. Last call was with Petroleum Helicopters (PHI) over there at the LFT airport. Since it looks like Lafayette will be west of the center/track, you'll probably see max winds 25-35 mph. Some gusts to 40-45 possible, of course. Most of the rain will fall east of the track, too. This storm may not have much of a left side.

[DoctorMu]

Wxman57's thoughts....Looks like hot dry side for us..


Just got home. Started today at 3:45am again. Last call was with Petroleum Helicopters (PHI) over there at the LFT airport. Since it looks like Lafayette will be west of the center/track, you'll probably see max winds 25-35 mph. Some gusts to 40-45 possible, of course. Most of the rain will fall east of the track, too. This storm may not have much of a left side.

Our chances are slim to none, and Slim just left the building.

Cristobal would have to lose its circulation for us to see any raindrops. An open wave miracle.

[Rip76]

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t 2011 drought kick of with a storm going in just east of us? Or was it dry before 2011?

[Cpv17]

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t 2011 drought kick of with a storm going in just east of us? Or was it dry before 2011?

Well we’re entering a La Niña and you know what that means for Texas.

[tireman4]

The 18 Z Nam

[davidiowx]

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t 2011 drought kick of with a storm going in just east of us? Or was it dry before 2011?

Remember TS Don in 2011? It was decimated by dry air before it could even make landfall! That was a site to see. But yes, 2011 we saw the entire month of August above 100F. I don’t remember how many consecutive days but I think it was 40 something. That was the year people had foundation problems if they didn’t water their foundation and trees were dying everywhere.

[davidiowx]

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t 2011 drought kick of with a storm going in just east of us? Or was it dry before 2011?

Remember TS Don in 2011? It was decimated by dry air before it could even make landfall! That was a site to see. But yes, 2011 we saw the entire month of August above 100F. I don’t remember how many consecutive days but I think it was 40 something. That was the year people had foundation problems if they didn’t water their foundation and trees were dying everywhere.

[Rip76]

Haha oh yes, I forgot about Don. Basically a hot breeze after that.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

2011 was literally Hell on Earth. It was a nightmare and my wife was 3-4 months pregnant in August/September that year. We didn’t have rain from early June until October if I remember correctly.