00
FXUS64 KHGX 041725
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions throughout the day with some MVFR conditions in the
central CWAs due to some vicinity thunderstorms. A few lingering
MVFR ceilings will be dissipating in the early afternoon in the
northern CWAs. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
late afternoon from diurnal effects and move northerly with the
seabreeze and dissipate relatively quickly after sunset.
In the morning hours, low stratus and patchy fog is expected to
develop but mainly effect the northern CWAs. The main concern will
be low ceilings as low as 600FT AGL for CLL/UTS. Ceilings will rise
towards the coastal areas to MVFR conditions of 1500-2000FT AGL with
not as much of a threat of fog development.
BGK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 628 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 93 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 74 93 74 94 76 / 0 20 0 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 87 78 89 79 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...47
June 2020
12z EURO ensembles shifted west with a lot more showing the upper Texas coast than the last couple of runs fwiw.We will have to see if the westward trend continues in tonight's runs.
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Dang it even has a couple coming my way. Interesting 12z suite today.
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Kingwood36
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Its amazing how we thought texas was clear and the trends were in out favor then all of a sudden bam...back in the game
Yeah and if you look at the 12z Euro ensembles on weather.us there’s even more of them further west. Some even into STX. A bunch of them into Galveston.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:24 pm Its amazing how we thought texas was clear and the trends were in out favor then all of a sudden bam...back in the game
Yeah a few of the ensembles have Cristobal missing the trough and looping back south, kinda similar to the GFS fwiw.
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Kingwood36
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What does that mean on terms for the westward movement?
I feel like its been way too early to call this anybodies storm. There's too many steering currents in play and this thing isn't even back out over water yet.
Last edited by JDsGN on Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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prospects8903
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NHC tracked shifted a little west
NHC acknowledges the Euro shift but for now it is only a small change in the overall track as expected.
Mine eyes don't see much in the way of significant shifts in the Euro starting from the 12z run a couple days ago when I placed my bets on Cameron, LA +/-. While the GFS has gone east, and then added some back tracking to the west, it seems to ultimately line up with the consistent trend of the Euro. Same with NAVGEM and EPS Ensemble. I'll be the first to admit I'm still riding that model learning curve, but just throwing out my observations. Wx learning is fun!
starting to think there's a big "X" on us here in Orange, TX....everything seems to get funneled here these days.
Good discussion from the local NWS today.Here's the most important part.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
If I copied and pasted my long term AFD from yesterday, would
anyone notice? It would still be valid, at least. And given the
uncertainty discussed in that AFD, that`s got to at least count
for something? Cristobal`s influence continues to dominate...and
cloud...the long term forecast. So, like yesterday, this AFD will
be based on Cristobal following the NHC forecast track, and could
become very worthless if we get any significant deviation from
that.
By Friday night, Cristobal should be making its way to the Gulf of
Mexico from the Yucatan. The channel of lower heights between two
upper ridges still exists, and gives the storm its "out" to the
northern Gulf Coast. So much continues to hinge on the delicate
interplay between Cristobal, the upper ridge building east from NW
Mexico, and the upper trough to the west of that ridge, helping
nudge it eastward. If the ridge builds too strongly/too quickly,
there is still some potential for Cristobal to be pushed left of
track - the 12Z deterministic Euro does precisely this, making
landfall closer to the Sabine River, and left of the forecast
track.
Fortunately, a storm going west of the TX/LA border still appears
to be somewhat of an outlier solution, so I`m not going to get too
worked up about this. But, I also see the 00Z EPS, 12Z GEFS, and
12Z GEPS make three ensemble systems where the mean solution does
jerk to the northwest around landfall, so there`s certainly some
sort of signal that this building ridge could still push Cristobal
a little too close for comfort. My main worry is if the center of
Cristobal reforms west of the Yucatan underneath the midlevel
circulation, which looks to emerge out over the Bay of Campeche a
little sooner on Friday afternoon. This may ultimately be
meaningless, even if it were to happen, but it seems that if there
is a failure mode for the forecast, this would be it. All in all,
it`s probably a good problem to have to be trying to construct
ways in which we might see unexpected impact - I`d much rather be
exploring ways I could be surprised than prepping for an expected
landfall!
So, assuming all goes to plan and Cristobal is headed towards the
Louisiana Coast for a late Sunday/early Monday landfall, things
should shape up to be fairly low impact for us on land (marine
impacts may be a different story, read the section below for
those). Rain showers on the outer periphery of the storm may work
through our area, particularly if the storm does move left of
track a little. Best shot for rain will be east of I-45, and dry
weather becomes much more likely the farther west you head from
there.
Indirectly, we`ll have to watch out for being underneath a summer
ridge aloft, and on the subsident edge of Cristobal. That`s a
surefire recipe for a heatwave! The NBM persists in explicitly
forecasting record high temps at College Station on Tuesday, with
highs in the upper 90s and potentially even lower 100s most days
of the work week. For the time being, I`ve continued to tone down
those highs given the uncertainties involved in the forecast...but
I didn`t shave as much off today as I did yesterday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
If I copied and pasted my long term AFD from yesterday, would
anyone notice? It would still be valid, at least. And given the
uncertainty discussed in that AFD, that`s got to at least count
for something? Cristobal`s influence continues to dominate...and
cloud...the long term forecast. So, like yesterday, this AFD will
be based on Cristobal following the NHC forecast track, and could
become very worthless if we get any significant deviation from
that.
By Friday night, Cristobal should be making its way to the Gulf of
Mexico from the Yucatan. The channel of lower heights between two
upper ridges still exists, and gives the storm its "out" to the
northern Gulf Coast. So much continues to hinge on the delicate
interplay between Cristobal, the upper ridge building east from NW
Mexico, and the upper trough to the west of that ridge, helping
nudge it eastward. If the ridge builds too strongly/too quickly,
there is still some potential for Cristobal to be pushed left of
track - the 12Z deterministic Euro does precisely this, making
landfall closer to the Sabine River, and left of the forecast
track.
Fortunately, a storm going west of the TX/LA border still appears
to be somewhat of an outlier solution, so I`m not going to get too
worked up about this. But, I also see the 00Z EPS, 12Z GEFS, and
12Z GEPS make three ensemble systems where the mean solution does
jerk to the northwest around landfall, so there`s certainly some
sort of signal that this building ridge could still push Cristobal
a little too close for comfort. My main worry is if the center of
Cristobal reforms west of the Yucatan underneath the midlevel
circulation, which looks to emerge out over the Bay of Campeche a
little sooner on Friday afternoon. This may ultimately be
meaningless, even if it were to happen, but it seems that if there
is a failure mode for the forecast, this would be it. All in all,
it`s probably a good problem to have to be trying to construct
ways in which we might see unexpected impact - I`d much rather be
exploring ways I could be surprised than prepping for an expected
landfall!
So, assuming all goes to plan and Cristobal is headed towards the
Louisiana Coast for a late Sunday/early Monday landfall, things
should shape up to be fairly low impact for us on land (marine
impacts may be a different story, read the section below for
those). Rain showers on the outer periphery of the storm may work
through our area, particularly if the storm does move left of
track a little. Best shot for rain will be east of I-45, and dry
weather becomes much more likely the farther west you head from
there.
Indirectly, we`ll have to watch out for being underneath a summer
ridge aloft, and on the subsident edge of Cristobal. That`s a
surefire recipe for a heatwave! The NBM persists in explicitly
forecasting record high temps at College Station on Tuesday, with
highs in the upper 90s and potentially even lower 100s most days
of the work week. For the time being, I`ve continued to tone down
those highs given the uncertainties involved in the forecast...but
I didn`t shave as much off today as I did yesterday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
Luchs discussions are the best discussions.
18z GFS shifts back east.The GFS has Cristobal heading NNE from the Yucatan while the EURO has the storm moving NNW from the Yucatan. Models are having issues determining the strength of the ridge it seems. We should know more by tonight's 0z runs to see which trend continues.
Last edited by don on Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Stormlover2020
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18z runs are always bad
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