June 2020

[Andrew]

Interesting model runs today

[Scott747]

Not sure I'd call it a big shift west. Early on it's caught in a cyclonic loop of the gyre then the high is pushing a little further s and e which helps it turn nw a little sooner.

Next frame will tell how big a shift w it is....

[Cpv17]

Not sure I'd call it a big shift west. Early on it's caught in a cyclonic loop of the gyre then the high is pushing a little further s and e which helps it turn nw a little sooner.

Next frame will tell how big a shift w it is....

0z Euro had it into SELA, 12z has it in SWLA. Definitely a decent shift imo.

[Cpv17]

The EPS should be interesting later this afternoon.

[don]

12z Euro shifted west by a decent margin.

[Cpv17]

Interesting model runs today

I wonder if the NHC will adjust their cone west and put more of Texas in it.

[Scott747]

Not sure I'd call it a big shift west. Early on it's caught in a cyclonic loop of the gyre then the high is pushing a little further s and e which helps it turn nw a little sooner.

Next frame will tell how big a shift w it is....

0z Euro had it into SELA, 12z has it in SWLA. Definitely a decent shift imo.

If you smooth out the last few runs it's not. Look where the 12z was yesterday.

If the ensembles have a significant shift then I'll take notice...

[Kingwood36]

Wouldn't it make sense that the more slower this thing moves the more westard it would go? Cuz of the high right?

[TXWeatherMan]

Wouldn't it make sense that the more slower this thing moves the more westard it would go? Cuz of the high right?

I think so

[davidiowx]

Not sure I'd call it a big shift west. Early on it's caught in a cyclonic loop of the gyre then the high is pushing a little further s and e which helps it turn nw a little sooner.

Next frame will tell how big a shift w it is....

0z Euro had it into SELA, 12z has it in SWLA. Definitely a decent shift imo.

If you smooth out the last few runs it's not. Look where the 12z was yesterday.

If the ensembles have a significant shift then I'll take notice...

I am also just waiting on the ensembles to see if it is in fact a shift to the W or just a one run thing.

[srainhoutx]

Keep a keen eye on the upper air pattern as the weekend nears. We are expecting a cold front arriving here in the mountains of WNC late Friday/early Saturday. The Atlantic subtropical Ridge gets pushed S over Florida and Cuba while a mid continent Ridge spreads East toward the Appalachians. The southerly low level flow should track Cristobal N to NNW from the Yucatan Peninsula toward the Louisiana Coast. The Mid Continent Ridge is a bit strong and may slow Cristobal down as it nears the Coast. The key is the timing and placement of the Continental Ridge over the Tennessee Valley Saturday into early Monday. I still believe the worst weather will be East of Cristobal, but that Tennessee Valley Ridge placement is a wildcard as of this afternoon.

[cperk]

I was ready throw in the towel on this one but today's 12z GFS,CMC, and ICON models have shifted decently west as they show a stronger ridge.

Well wx57 is standing strong on no tx hit so....and you know how he gets when you go against him

The same wx57 that was calling for an upper Texas coast landfall a few days ago.

[cperk]

I was ready throw in the towel on this one but today's 12z GFS,CMC, and ICON models have shifted decently west as they show a stronger ridge.

Well wx57 is standing strong on no tx hit so....and you know how he gets when you go against him

The same wx57 that was calling for an upper Texas coast landfall a few days ago.

[Cpv17]

The GFS ensembles (GEFS) are focusing in now on the LA/TX border.

[Stormlover2020]

Euro ensembles has Sabine pass

[davidiowx]

Euro ensembles has Sabine pass

Most are east of Sabine Pass

[Belmer]

I was ready throw in the towel on this one but today's 12z GFS,CMC, and ICON models have shifted decently west as they show a stronger ridge.

Well wx57 is standing strong on no tx hit so....and you know how he gets when you go against him

The same wx57 that was calling for an upper Texas coast landfall a few days ago.

It's okay for forecasters/meteorologist to adjust their forecast based on new data. Wxman is an excellent meteorologist and he's done this long enough to sniff out details that others may not. No one is going to be right 100% of the time, but he has been right more often than not. You'd be stubborn to ignore data and not adjust forecast accordingly. Let's not start being snarky on here... meteorologist already get a bad rap as it is when forecast go wrong. It isn't easy forecasting systems like this, and the top mets in the world (NHC) have mentioned this several times.

[tireman4]

Agreed Blake. Wxman 57 has more than earned his stripes. He has forgotten more than I know of tropical meteorology.

[prospects8903]

I may be wrong but my personal opinion is the models shifting west are from the storm going further south than anticipated

[tireman4]

To channel my inner Srain. Long way to go..many model runs to watch..patience