MAY 2020
Stuff in gulf is now pushing outflow/bowing back to the east. Western side collapsing. May be a window to re-establish gulf infow...
From Jeff.
Saturday Morning Rainfall Threat
Busy afternoon with isolated intense rainfall cores leading to flash flooding across portions of SE Harris County. Rainfall totals over portions of South Houston and Pasadena were 4-5 inches in a few hours with similar totals over the Sugar Land area, and portions of north-central Galveston County. Significant street flooding was the primary result from this rainfall, although significant rises on Little Vince, and Vince Bayous occurred in the Pasadena area.
Line of activity is pushing WSW and extends from Galveston to El Campo to Smithville and continues to move WSW. Air mass over much of SE TX has been worked over from the activity today, but looking to the west…significant convection has formed over much of W TX and NE MX and this will move eastward tonight and into SE TX. High resolution models show a fairly decent signal toward a faster moving line of storms or bowing segments on Saturday morning. This increases the threat for damaging winds, but helps to reduce the rainfall potential some.
Note: SPC has now included much of SE TX in a slight risk for damaging winds tonight.
Given the expected moist air mass still likely to be in place and the chance that the line could still slow down some over SE TX, don’t want to pull back on rainfall totals much from what has been advertised, but think 2-4 inches widespread is likely the higher end of the range and 1-2 inches is looking a bit more likely. Still could get some isolated higher totals.
While trends are looking somewhat better for Saturday morning with respect to rainfall amounts, will need to monitor trends closely, just in case storms slow down some. While rainfall has been heavy in certain areas today, other areas did not see much rainfall and the current amounts expected early Saturday should be able to be handled. Expect street flooding to be the main concern as long as storms move through swiftly.
Saturday Morning Rainfall Threat
Busy afternoon with isolated intense rainfall cores leading to flash flooding across portions of SE Harris County. Rainfall totals over portions of South Houston and Pasadena were 4-5 inches in a few hours with similar totals over the Sugar Land area, and portions of north-central Galveston County. Significant street flooding was the primary result from this rainfall, although significant rises on Little Vince, and Vince Bayous occurred in the Pasadena area.
Line of activity is pushing WSW and extends from Galveston to El Campo to Smithville and continues to move WSW. Air mass over much of SE TX has been worked over from the activity today, but looking to the west…significant convection has formed over much of W TX and NE MX and this will move eastward tonight and into SE TX. High resolution models show a fairly decent signal toward a faster moving line of storms or bowing segments on Saturday morning. This increases the threat for damaging winds, but helps to reduce the rainfall potential some.
Note: SPC has now included much of SE TX in a slight risk for damaging winds tonight.
Given the expected moist air mass still likely to be in place and the chance that the line could still slow down some over SE TX, don’t want to pull back on rainfall totals much from what has been advertised, but think 2-4 inches widespread is likely the higher end of the range and 1-2 inches is looking a bit more likely. Still could get some isolated higher totals.
While trends are looking somewhat better for Saturday morning with respect to rainfall amounts, will need to monitor trends closely, just in case storms slow down some. While rainfall has been heavy in certain areas today, other areas did not see much rainfall and the current amounts expected early Saturday should be able to be handled. Expect street flooding to be the main concern as long as storms move through swiftly.
I noticed that too. Looks like the low moves very slowly and points up north get hammered with training storms. Interesting to keep an eye on for sure, but for now the HRRR has it well north of our area.
The line coming through looks tough but should be in an out in a hurry. I dont think anyone has flooding concerns tomorrow unless this hits the brakes.
I don’t know if there is enough inflow to keep this going (strong) as it approaches the Houston area. We’ll just have to see - it’s gonna be close.
I don't recall a severe thunderstorm "watch" before ? looks kinda wicked
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/mrms_v12 ... s_step=120
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020
TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-235-335-160700-
MADISON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-BURLESON TX-
WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-COASTAL JACKSON TX-AUSTIN TX-
INLAND JACKSON TX-
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...
AT 1259 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMERON TO LEXINGTON
TO NEAR SMITHVILLE TO NEAR YOAKUM TO NEAR CUERO TO NEAR BERCLAIR TO
8 MILES SOUTH OF GEORGE WEST. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM, NAVASOTA, SEALY, EDNA, CALDWELL,
BELLVILLE, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WASHINGTON, WEIMAR, GANADO,
SOMERVILLE, SNOOK, KURTEN, INDUSTRY, BURTON, WIXON VALLEY AND
MILLICAN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-201-239-291-321-473-481-161000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0190.200516T0555Z-200516T1000Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA WALLER WHARTON
$$
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/mrms_v12 ... s_step=120
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020
TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-235-335-160700-
MADISON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-BURLESON TX-
WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-COASTAL JACKSON TX-AUSTIN TX-
INLAND JACKSON TX-
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...
AT 1259 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMERON TO LEXINGTON
TO NEAR SMITHVILLE TO NEAR YOAKUM TO NEAR CUERO TO NEAR BERCLAIR TO
8 MILES SOUTH OF GEORGE WEST. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM, NAVASOTA, SEALY, EDNA, CALDWELL,
BELLVILLE, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WASHINGTON, WEIMAR, GANADO,
SOMERVILLE, SNOOK, KURTEN, INDUSTRY, BURTON, WIXON VALLEY AND
MILLICAN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-201-239-291-321-473-481-161000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0190.200516T0555Z-200516T1000Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA WALLER WHARTON
$$
KPRC covering, live https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... ay-evening
Yep, not Montgomery. The heavy stuff looks to track along and south of I-10. I knew this was going to be more along the coast instead of northern areas...
Thank you - I am watching it live - they are on it! Up late like me!unome wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 2:29 am KPRC covering, live https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... ay-evening
-
Andrew
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Looks like everyone will get in on the rain but south of I-10 will see the strongest storms. Luckily, the flooding risk (and severe risk north of I-10) should be pretty minimal.
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Jeff apparently also never sleeps 
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3497
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Lightning has really decreased except along the coastline. Shows the line is weakening overall but still seeing some pretty strong rain rates across all of the line. Good thing this is moving fast enough otherwise a big flooding risk would be present. Still, an impressive line crossing most of SE Texas.
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Crazy bow on this thing.
The low looks to be centered just over Bryan right now. I wonder if it can fire off anymore storms in the Houston area.
The 12z HRRR actually brings the low back towards SETX over the run lol.. but then I realized the 13z was out and that looks more reasonable. Basically taking it’s sweet time to get to NETX. In any event, there really doesn’t appear to be any steering currents.
Only .45” overnight so I could use the rain. Storm total would be .86” if I don’t get anything else. Watching that low.
Last edited by jasons2k on Sat May 16, 2020 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
We got 1” back on Tuesday night, .50” yesterday evening, and 1.6” this morning. 3.10” total this week. I was expecting more, but thankful for what I got. Definitely much needed.
Just crossed over the 5 inch mark in northern Grimes county.