INVEST 95L GOM Back to Code yellow but who really knows

[Ptarmigan]

95L reminds me of Marco of 2008. Very small tropical cyclone. Small tropical cyclones are just as unpredictable as large ones.

[Paul]

I think Jerry was bigger than this.....just goes to show how favorable the GOM is this year in JULY.....where not even peak season yet.....this should get a name before going inland IMO....we are on the west side so we get dry hot weather...

[Ptarmigan]

I think Jerry was bigger than this.....just goes to show how favorable the GOM is this year in JULY.....where not even peak season yet.....this should get a name before going inland IMO....we are on the west side so we get dry hot weather...

Jerry was larger than Chantal, which both made landfall in 1989. I remember Chantal more because of the heavy rain and winds.
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt

Yes, the GOM is very warm. Now, if conditions were perfect, perhaps a hypercane could form.

[Paul]

The area this guy is in is about the hottest ssts around...dry air or not I think this has got someting to do with it...already busting a tower over the LLC right now...

[Paul]

2 Invest fixing to be TDs and we have 6 guests on here....I guess the word has not gotten out.,.

[Ptarmigan]

2 Invest fixing to be TDs and we have 6 guests on here....I guess the word has not gotten out.,.

July 4th weekend.

Average Size of Tropical Cyclone Prior To Landfall


Jerry was larger than Chantal and Humberto.

[Hardcoreweather]

Today is the 4th of July ? I had no idea... Now back to our soon to be code red invest

[biggerbyte]

Thanks to HCW for having the you know whats to talk about what could be future 95l. I saw it too, as did others, I'm sure, but it did not make for prime time. I think we all tried that one year and got accused of fear mongering with "every little blob".

lol

Kudos HCW

[Scott747]

Not really much to be interested in....

96 is the player....

[biggerbyte]

I agree that 96 is going to be the bigger trouble maker for someone. Long range suggests Mexico.
Oh well.. It has it's own thread. Back to 95. Like all others this time of the year..

[Scott747]

I agree that 96 is going to be the bigger trouble maker for someone. Long range suggests Mexico.
Oh well.. It has it's own thread. Back to 95. Like all others this time of the year..

Not really. But like you said it has its own thread....

[Hardcoreweather]

95L threat is now

96L threat is 5 to 7 days down the road


I am tired of reading that 95L is dead when it really isn't


Have a great 4th

[redfish1]

95L threat is now

96L threat is 5 to 7 days down the road


I am tired of reading that 95L is dead when it really isn't


Have a great 4th

i agree

[biggerbyte]

Agreed, HCW.

We shall see what happens with this one. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

[Scott747]

No surprises with the latest TWO update.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

[Ptarmigan]

Two new areas to watch. 96L is now Code Orange. The tropics are heating up. Never seen so many areas to bear watch, let alone in July. Looks more like August or September.

[wink1968]

Does anyone think we will get much rain out of this system? Usually the threat is on the "dirty side"...

[Paul]

until the convetion refires no one is going to get anything....aint nothing there....

[Ptarmigan]

I think 95L is out. However, I think convection could flare up again considering it is nighttime.

[biggerbyte]

95l is trying very hard in spite of all obstacles. We are seeing a flareup again tonight/this morning. Will she make TD or TS status before landfall??

Stay tuned, LA and Texas..