February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:37 pm

Here we go!!!

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:38 pm

LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Thursday]...
Weak surface high pressure will allow for a fairly quiet weather per-
iod for the weekend even as mid/high clouds persist. An increasingly
strong SW mid-level flow developing late Sat/Sun and a warm front on
Sun will make for a warm/humid end to the weekend. Rain chances will
return in earnest Mon as the lingering upper low out west (at/around
the southern Baja) finally moves across the state. A second stronger
upper low/trof moving down from the northern Rockies will then bring
a strong cold front to the region on Tues. Much colder temperatures/
gusty north winds expected on Weds (and hopefully that all). Of note
for this portion of the extended, a few of the models are hinting at
the possibility of some form of wintry precipitation for portions of
our northern CWA Weds. Will be interesting to see if this holds with
later runs. 41

MARINE...
Northeasterly flow today as warm front over the Gulf creeps northward
possibly reaching up to around 60nm offshore/right near the edge of
the marine zones late this afternoon/tonight. Expecting an increase
in the coverage of showers over the coastal waters today/tonight as
lower levels moisten (PW edging up to 1.2-1.3") and upglide over the
boundary strengthens. SCEC flag already hoisted mainly in the late
morning through early evening hours. May need an SCA late
tonight/early Friday as winds near the sustained 20 knot mark with
building seas. 850 front sweeps out over the coastal waters Friday
morning and this should lower rain chances with reinforcing cold
front. Winds relaxing Friday afternoon/evening as high pressure over
the extreme western Gulf weakens. Southwesterly or westerly flow
Saturday night becoming southerly in response to the next upper
trough. Strong onshore flow on tap Monday with seas building to
5-9 feet.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 42 56 38 65 / 20 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 47 58 43 65 / 20 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 51 58 50 63 / 20 30 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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Ptarmigan
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Re: February 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:42 pm

Wintry precipitation from from freezing rain to snow tends to fall in February. There have been hard freezes in February in 1895, 1899, 1933, 1951, and 1989. The epic freeze were 1895 and 1899. The 1895 and 1933 freeze set record lows for Texas that are yet to be broken to this very day. It was known to be cold in Winter of 1863-1864.

Houston Freeze Below 16°F
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/freeze.htm

Houston Ice Storm History Since 1960
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houice.htm

Houston Snow History
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/snowhou.htm

The Winter Storm of 1863 and 1864
http://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/7015.asp

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:58 pm

Both GFS and Canadian have wintry mischief penetrating to the Hill Country on Wednesday (2/5), but no fun n' games for SE Texas.


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don
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Re: February 2020

Post by don » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:22 pm

We'll have to watch the upper level trough as it passes us Thursday morning, with lower heights and light precip things could get interesting if the cold air is more aggressive and if the trough "digs" more to the south. But chances seem low at the moment of that happening.
Last edited by don on Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:47 pm

Did a deep dive on the mosquito thing. Hibernation below 50°F. Larvae survive cold and freezing temps. In some species of mosquitoes (85 species in Texas alone), the adults die with a freeze. In many species they survive. In northern climates adult mosquitoes produce an "antifreeze" that allows them to survive hibernation.

In the winter take same precautions as spring, summer, fall to reduce mosquito population explosions. Dump or drain standing water - that could not only remove larvae, but hibernating adults.

PSA. 721

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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:51 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1001 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [Today]...
Temps are in the mid 50s this morning. Under sunny skies, expect
max temps to reach the mid-upper 60s areawide this afternoon.
Will see westerly winds generally in the 5 to 15 mph range
throughout the day today. Only adjustment to the forecast was a
slight bump up to max temps today. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Relatively calm and benign weather conditions look to continue
through the weekend as surface high pressure remains in place over
SE Texas. Cloud decks have mostly cleared out overnight tonight
and clear conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
afternoon. A gradual shift to southwest winds should occur
heading into this afternoon as high pressure progresses eastward.
Most locations should see near-seasonable highs in the mid to
upper 60s today, with lows dipping into the 40s inland and near 50
along the coastal zones. An onshore flow pattern begins to
develop on Sunday as the high pushes further eastward, which
should promote some scattered cloud development with the
associated increase in low-level moisture. High temperatures
should reach the low to mid 70s in most locations, about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than normal for early February.

Cady

LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Impressive plume of Pacific moisture getting tapped near Baja will
be overspreading the region Sunday night and early Monday as
vigorous WAA taking place over SETX. Rain chances increasing Monday
as entrance region of the subtropical jet lifts into the region.
Moisture return is very aggressive - increasing from 0.4" PW Sunday
afternoon to 1.3-1.7" Monday afternoon.
Breezy conditions throughout
the day Monday. Although the profile moistens up instability is
lacking so expect mainly showers...perhaps the northeastern areas
could get a rumble or two of thunder. Strong WAA wanes as flow veers
Monday night/early Tuesday but will still continue the string of
warm days and nights. Cold front Tuesday morning should be crossing
the Red River and pushing quickly southward likely reaching the I-69
corridor/coast Wednesday morning. Not surprisingly the GFS/ECMWF
still differ on timing of FROPA with the GFS being the faster. This
is going to play havoc with confidence in temperatures 3am Wed
through noon.
Shower/thunderstorm chances increase again with the
approach/passage of the cold front. Wednesday should be wet and cold
across the area so get the jackets and umbrellas out. The profile
shows quick drying out in the wake of the front per the GFS but the
ECMWF is much slower to dry out and hence rain chances linger as the
upper trough nears and frontogenic forcing peaks near the 850 front.

Have trended the forecast towards the ECMWF solution showing a brief
lull in rain chances then increasing again with the arrival of the
upper trough. Profile appears to be sufficiently warm to curtail any
threat of wintery weather in SETX...if you are looking for that you
will need to look in North Texas. Skies clearing out Thursday and
weak high pressure slides away with southerly flow returning
Thursday night. The coldest night should be Thursday morning with
temperatures finally dipping to the freezing mark near CLL this
year...mid to upper 30s Houston southward.


45

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:04 pm

Meanwhile, the bluebonnets are blooming along I-45 in The Woodlands.

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:56 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:04 pm
Meanwhile, the bluebonnets are blooming along I-45 in The Woodlands.
It’s February 1st. That makes zero sense lol

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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:40 pm

It appears next week’s cold snap will be brief. My forecast for Friday, from the NWS, is sunny and a high of 70.

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