Spring has sprung.....let's do it.
January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6024
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 231614
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...
Wrap around clouds and CAA playing some havoc with the
sky/temperatures forecasts today. Wrap around clouds should expand
southeastward then shift east in the late afternoon all while
eroding from the west. Temperatures under the cloud cover should
struggle to rise through early afternoon whereas the areas with
sun should warm up quickly...until the cold front pushes through.
Winds becoming northwesterly at 10-15 and gusty at times this
afternoon. Cool night on tap with clear to mostly clear skies.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Winds relaxing and have become more west and west-northwesterly
as surface low near Lake Charles tracks away to the east. Cold
front should push off the coast this afternoon and northwesterly
winds become dominant and strengthen this evening. Seas of 5-9
feet remain mid morning and should slowly lower then may creep
back up tonight as the winds increase. SCA extended well offshore
and then have hoisted a SCEC for the overnight hours as winds
increase and slows the fall of the wave heights.
45
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 231614
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...
Wrap around clouds and CAA playing some havoc with the
sky/temperatures forecasts today. Wrap around clouds should expand
southeastward then shift east in the late afternoon all while
eroding from the west. Temperatures under the cloud cover should
struggle to rise through early afternoon whereas the areas with
sun should warm up quickly...until the cold front pushes through.
Winds becoming northwesterly at 10-15 and gusty at times this
afternoon. Cool night on tap with clear to mostly clear skies.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Winds relaxing and have become more west and west-northwesterly
as surface low near Lake Charles tracks away to the east. Cold
front should push off the coast this afternoon and northwesterly
winds become dominant and strengthen this evening. Seas of 5-9
feet remain mid morning and should slowly lower then may creep
back up tonight as the winds increase. SCA extended well offshore
and then have hoisted a SCEC for the overnight hours as winds
increase and slows the fall of the wave heights.
45
&&
Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.
The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.
The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.
If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
Next Thursday/Friday has potential to be pretty wet according to the GFS.
Your urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.
The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.
If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.
Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.
https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.
The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.
If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
We've had very little rain until 5 days ago (0.30 in over mid-December to mid-January), and the weeds are nuts in the back (where I put less pre-emergence). We've had no deep freeze.
Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!
GFS and Euro both agree on a strong front in 9-10 days from now, but the CPC forecast is a torch during that timeframe.
From the very article you linked: "Keck's explanation disproves a common misconception that insects "freeze off" and die."DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:24 pmYour urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.
The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.
If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.
Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.
https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/
That's basically the same exact point of my original post. Just swap out the words "common misconception" for "urban myth" and we are saying the same thing....
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GBinGrimes
- Posts: 110
- Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
- Location: Anderson, TX
- Contact:
"We've had very little rain until 5 days ago (0.30 in over mid-December to mid-January), and the weeds are nuts in the back (where I put less pre-emergence). We've had no deep freeze.
Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!"
Spent the morning yesterday spraying weed killer and pulling them from around bushes and trees. Clover has gone wild. The pasture appears to be hosting a county wide contest of fire ant mound builders. Some trees are starting their leaf budding. This all has the appearance of late February or early March. A freeze between now and then, which is entirely possible though increasingly improbable, would be a nasty event for foliage.
Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!"
Spent the morning yesterday spraying weed killer and pulling them from around bushes and trees. Clover has gone wild. The pasture appears to be hosting a county wide contest of fire ant mound builders. Some trees are starting their leaf budding. This all has the appearance of late February or early March. A freeze between now and then, which is entirely possible though increasingly improbable, would be a nasty event for foliage.
Yeah, I’m observing the same here too. Everything is blooming 4-6 weeks early, including the weeds. It was a great morning for a run though.
Has felt like spring for weeks and looks to continue. Time to put chemicals on lawn and start planting I guess.
For your entertainment from the 12z GFS:
The longer and colder the winter, the fewer mosquitoes. Mosquitoes die all the time. Keeping the ground cold for longer reduces their presence in the Spring by reduces their generational procreation and population increase. By early Fall the population reaches a maxim. Melting frozen ground requires far more heating than heating the ground another 10°F.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:23 pmFrom the very article you linked: "Keck's explanation disproves a common misconception that insects "freeze off" and die."DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:24 pmYour urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.
The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.
If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.
Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.
https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/
That's basically the same exact point of my original post. Just swap out the words "common misconception" for "urban myth" and we are saying the same thing....
To be more precise, a colder winter will delay the presence of mosquitoes, which is why I specifically targeted our Spring.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/ ... g/7461715/
Louisiana gets dumped on that run. It will be gone on the next. However, it has been trending cold beginning around the 6th of February.
Im very quickly giving up on this winter. Already almost Feb and still spring time weather. Ive lost all credibility on models for this winter. The lack of cold air is amazing. Just like last year. Next up, 100 degree miserable humid weather.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Today’s forecast was “mostly sunny”...still waiting to see that sun.
Clouds finally burning off here...
What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!
I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!
I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!
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