November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Next week looks awesome! Lets keep pumping the GOA ridge.

[snowman65]

Next week looks awesome! Lets keep pumping the GOA ridge.

The rest of the month looks awesomer and awesomer...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061800
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions should prevail through the first half of the TAF
package before ceilings lower to MVFR/IFR criteria by the early
morning hours. Ceilings should remain low through most of tomorrow
out ahead of the next frontal passage. Could also see some
isolated patchy fog during the overnight hours. The cold front
looks to arrive across our northern terminals just outside this
current TAF period, but showers and some isolated thunderstorms
ahead of the main wind shift cannot be ruled out. More widespread
coverage of precipitation will be possible tomorrow afternoon.
Therefore, winds should remain light and variable tonight, before
turning back onshore shortly after sunrise. Winds behind the
front will be out of the north between 15 to 20 knots and gusty at
times late tomorrow afternoon.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 953 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019/...
Minor tweaks to the short term portion of the forecast this
morning to account for trends in cloud cover, temperature and
dew point observations. High temperatures should rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s area wide today, under mostly clear skies.
Winds remain out of the east southeast, helping to keep drier air
in place over Southeast Texas. Only other tweak to the forecast
was to speed up the front a bit Thursday afternoon into the
evening hours. Short term guidance such as the ARW, NMM, and the
Texas Tech WRF show the wind shift reaching our northern zones
from Burleson to Houston County around noon Thursday, and hitting
the coast by the early evening hours.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 61 74 48 57 40 / 0 80 40 20 0
Houston (IAH) 63 77 51 58 43 / 10 80 60 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 76 55 61 51 / 10 80 90 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF turned dramatically colder this run. The European drops a 1045mb Artic High into the Texas Panhandle Monday night. The Euro and GFS suggest we may see widespread freezing temperatures early to mid next for morning lows. It is awfully early to see temperatures that chilly in early/mid November around these parts.

[harp]

Srain, you still thinking a spin up low possible? Trough looks pretty amplified.

[srainhoutx]

Srain, you still thinking a spin up low possible? Trough looks pretty amplified.

There appears to be a noisy sub tropical jet with a possibility of a Baja upper low sometime next week. That upper trough looks to hang around overhead into the extended range. I see the top analog for the Day 8+ Super Ensemble from the CPC is 1976. That was a brutally cold winter across the Plains and on East. It also was the year of a snow drought across the Southern/Central Rockies.

[harp]

Thank you for your response.

[harp]

I'm just having a hard time taking this seriously because it's so early.

[srainhoutx]

It's certainly early to see that kind of cold, but the Climate Prediction Center in their just Updated Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest the potentially chilly and unsettled weather may stick around for awhile.

610temp.new(28).gif

11062019 CPC 610prcp_new.gif

814temp.new(21).gif

814prcp.new(12).gif

[srainhoutx]

I did a quick research of my saved images after hearing some folks say that 2014 may be a good analog. This is what I found...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man, if we could lock in a 2014-2015 Winter pattern, hoooo yeah, that would be perfect.

The slopes in Montana would be buried and we’d have multiple rounds of wintry mischief opportunities down here.

[snowman65]

One of our local news stations is hinting at a possible light snow Tuesday morning...interesting...anyone else hearing this?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

One of our local news stations is hinting at a possible light snow Tuesday morning...interesting...anyone else hearing this?

Some models have hinted at it. It comes and goes with each run.

[Cpv17]

One of our local news stations is hinting at a possible light snow Tuesday morning...interesting...anyone else hearing this?

Still 5-6 days out. Lots of things can and will change on the models. I think the cold is a pretty sure bet at this point, but it’s anyones guess on precipitation.

[Katdaddy]

The first cold front will move across SE TX today with widespread rain this afternoon. The weekend weather is looking very nice. A stronger cold front will arrive Monday afternoon resulting in highs Tuesday in 40s across most areas.

[srainhoutx]

Cold front and wet weather today with lingering light rain and chilly air tonight will bring an end to the warm and muggy weather of late. Clouds and breezy winds will keep temperatures down on Friday.

Big changes ahead as our first Arctic Front of the season arrives Monday. A cross Polar flow allows for a chunk of chilled Siberian air to drop out of Canada into the Plains and settle all the way to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is very early for this amount of cold Arctic air to push this far South, but it is becoming clear that freezing temperatures may well be possible all the way to our Coastal tier of Counties at least by Wednesday morning, if not sooner. The Arctic boundary does bring another chance of rainfall Monday, possibly extending into early Tuesday. Some locations well inland may flirt with a wintry mix as the precipitation ends, but that part of the outlook is highly uncertain this far out and likely cannot be accurately predicted until Sunday or early Monday...at the earliest. Stay Tuned and gardening interests be prepared! It's not impossible that some Northern areas could see a Hard Freeze early next week.

[djmike]

Any severe weather expected with today tonight’s front?

[Texaspirate11]

Any severe weather expected with today tonight’s front?

here is what the disco says

With plenty of moisture available with this first frontal
passage, we should see relatively widespread showers and storms.
The best potential for rain looks to be nearer the coast, mostly
southwest of the Houston metro. In this area there is a very low
threat of excessive rain, where plentiful moisture could allow
the strongest of storms to produce rain rates up to an inch or
two per hour.
- The second front will bring another round of showers and storms,
but the bigger concern with this front is likely to be with cold
air behind the front early next week. Areas that have already
seen a freeze this season are looking more likely to see another
freeze behind this front, and some spots more coastward may get
a shot at their first freeze on the season.

[BlueJay]

crickets.......

Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.

Our neighbors in Louisiana might beg to differ with your "yawn". Rather chilly temperatures will accompany the deep Eastern trough.

Srain! Have you moved yet?

How's the weather in beautiful Haywood County, NC?

[jasons2k]

I have very much enjoyed the mild weather this week. Great running weather in the morning. Short sleeves during the day. I couldn’t ask for better weather. I wish it would stay just like this until May.