October: Chilly Halloween Outlook
I’m liking what I’m seeing in regards to precipitation in the long range. Our dry pattern may be coming to an end.
Doing a lot of yardwork this weekend and its brutal outside. Hot. Very humid. Zero wind.
Fall is my favorite season but it simply does not exist in Houston anymore.
Fall is my favorite season but it simply does not exist in Houston anymore.
- srainhoutx
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Everything is looking on track for our first shot of highly modified Canadian air arriving Sunday night and off the Coast Monday morning. Just a slight chance for some showers/storms with the first front. A stronger front with a storm system tracking across the Northern/Central Plains could bring wintry precipitation across portions of Nebraska and the Dakota's. This secondary push of 'colder air' looks to arrive Thursday night.
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Yeah, the models are pretty consistent.
TWC forecast - WTF. Stalled front and rain early this week. 2nd front a joke...the only model that even suggests that is the Euro. Canadian is bought in, Ensemble too. GFS as well..
NOAA looks sensible. 40% chance of rain Sunday night. Not much after that. Highs around 80°F, the a late week warm up before next weekend's stronger front.
TWC forecast - WTF. Stalled front and rain early this week. 2nd front a joke...the only model that even suggests that is the Euro. Canadian is bought in, Ensemble too. GFS as well..
NOAA looks sensible. 40% chance of rain Sunday night. Not much after that. Highs around 80°F, the a late week warm up before next weekend's stronger front.
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Whats this i hear about a possible 3rd front around the 19th?
If anyone gripes about the cold this year, they need to be smacked upside the head. It's been summer since March.
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Hmm, I seem to remember a fairly cool March AND April. Wet, too. The pups didn't dry out until about July!!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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- Katdaddy
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Not much to say about the SE TX weather today as Summer continues onward but changes are on the way.......finally.
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I'm ready for Fall - but the winter cold gets old after New Year's - at least for me anyway. I'd be perfectly happy with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's until March.
- srainhoutx
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Enjoy this last day of early October heat and humidity. Changes are brewing and the coming week will bring significant changes to our temperatures. While the models have not settled on a timing solution for the stronger shot of 'colder air' arriving Friday, each run of the computer schemes do suggest a vigorous Fall Storm System will track out of Canada into the Intermountain West and Central Plains. Denver and other locations along the Front Range as well as Western Kansas and points N an E could see snow Wednesday night into Thursday. We may see a line of showers/storms associated with the end of the week cold front and you may just need a jacket for any Friday Night Football or other activities.
We will also need to monitor a potential Super Typhoon making a run toward Japan later next weekend. The strong cyclone could make some significant impacts as it becomes Extra Tropical and ends up in the Bering Sea in about 10 days or so. We often see changes in the jet stream and big troughs developing that may have implications to our sensible weather as October moves along. So long to that big Smokey Mountain Heat Ridge!
We will also need to monitor a potential Super Typhoon making a run toward Japan later next weekend. The strong cyclone could make some significant impacts as it becomes Extra Tropical and ends up in the Bering Sea in about 10 days or so. We often see changes in the jet stream and big troughs developing that may have implications to our sensible weather as October moves along. So long to that big Smokey Mountain Heat Ridge!
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Hagibis is now a typhoon.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2019web.txt

One intensity forecast model has it as a powerful Category 5 super typhoon.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2019web.txt
Code: Select all
WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 152.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 152.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.9N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.1N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 151.7E.
06OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439
NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
NNNN

One intensity forecast model has it as a powerful Category 5 super typhoon.
Code: Select all
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2019
TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 155.8E
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2019 0 14.8N 155.8E 1000 34
1200UTC 06.10.2019 12 14.7N 152.8E 990 48
0000UTC 07.10.2019 24 15.3N 149.5E 979 56
1200UTC 07.10.2019 36 16.2N 146.5E 966 67
0000UTC 08.10.2019 48 17.4N 143.4E 945 82
1200UTC 08.10.2019 60 18.5N 141.1E 927 94
0000UTC 09.10.2019 72 19.7N 139.5E 904 108
1200UTC 09.10.2019 84 21.2N 138.6E 894 107
0000UTC 10.10.2019 96 22.6N 137.6E 886 106
1200UTC 10.10.2019 108 23.8N 136.5E 891 99
0000UTC 11.10.2019 120 24.9N 134.8E 895 103
1200UTC 11.10.2019 132 26.4N 133.1E 883 106
0000UTC 12.10.2019 144 28.1N 131.3E 893 105
- Katdaddy
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This first cold front of the week will move across SE TX today with lows in the 50s inland and mid to upper 60s along the coastal counties Tuesday morning. The second front arrives Friday resulting in a beautiful weekend with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s.
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Fronts knocking on our back door! Anyone feel it yet? Patiently waiting in Bmt. Had anyone noticed that fronts these last couple of years never have a line of storms with them anymore in our region? They all come through dry now. Not that I need anymore rain in Beaumont, but just an observation.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Yeah it came through here earlier this am. It’s overcast now with a nice northerly breeze. Glad the fall temps are finally here.djmike wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:54 am Fronts knocking on our back door! Anyone feel it yet? Patiently waiting in Bmt. Had anyone noticed that fronts these last couple of years never have a line of storms with them anymore in our region? They all come through dry now. Not that I need anymore rain in Beaumont, but just an observation.
Re: lack of rain with fronts - believe me, I’ve noticed too. I could actually use some rain at this point. Watered the shrubs last night and will probably have to run the sprinklers this week.
The low pressures that follow these fronts are typically too far north of us to give us anything.jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:24 pmYeah it came through here earlier this am. It’s overcast now with a nice northerly breeze. Glad the fall temps are finally here.djmike wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:54 am Fronts knocking on our back door! Anyone feel it yet? Patiently waiting in Bmt. Had anyone noticed that fronts these last couple of years never have a line of storms with them anymore in our region? They all come through dry now. Not that I need anymore rain in Beaumont, but just an observation.
Re: lack of rain with fronts - believe me, I’ve noticed too. I could actually use some rain at this point. Watered the shrubs last night and will probably have to run the sprinklers this week.
They didn't use to be though. I remember when I was younger a front usually came in with some pretty angry weather before the drier air filtered in.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:47 pmThe low pressures that follow these fronts are typically too far north of us to give us anything.jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:24 pmYeah it came through here earlier this am. It’s overcast now with a nice northerly breeze. Glad the fall temps are finally here.djmike wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:54 am Fronts knocking on our back door! Anyone feel it yet? Patiently waiting in Bmt. Had anyone noticed that fronts these last couple of years never have a line of storms with them anymore in our region? They all come through dry now. Not that I need anymore rain in Beaumont, but just an observation.
Re: lack of rain with fronts - believe me, I’ve noticed too. I could actually use some rain at this point. Watered the shrubs last night and will probably have to run the sprinklers this week.
Exactly! They use to be a solid red line of storms.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:43 pmThey didn't use to be though. I remember when I was younger a front usually came in with some pretty angry weather before the drier air filtered in.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:47 pmThe low pressures that follow these fronts are typically too far north of us to give us anything.jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:24 pm
Yeah it came through here earlier this am. It’s overcast now with a nice northerly breeze. Glad the fall temps are finally here.
Re: lack of rain with fronts - believe me, I’ve noticed too. I could actually use some rain at this point. Watered the shrubs last night and will probably have to run the sprinklers this week.
I noticed that the last two years.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
- Texaspirate11
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Bolivar reporting storms and 12 degree drop in temps
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