October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[MontgomeryCoWx]

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

What is happening now has very little to do with what happens in December through March.

Last year we got real cold in early November and Winter ended up being average.

[DoctorMu]

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

What is happening now has very little to do with what happens in December through March.

Last year we got real cold in early November and Winter ended up being average.

We had flurries in Nov. Then...nothing. A strange El Nino winter.

[djmike]

I have a feeling its going to be a wild and crazy cold winter. The winters that always follows a TS that affects SETX seem to always be wild. Example, harvey! Then that winter following we had it snow 4 times in 1 year here in Beaumont. jMo!

[stormlover]

if we don't get a cold front next week we could be getting some tropical moisture

[srainhoutx]

We will need to watch a tropical wave moving across the Central Caribbean Sea this morning. The marine surface charts suggest a weak area of lower pressure may develop and move little this week across the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities are rather high via the ensembles in the 48 hour timeframe. A weak backdoor front/wind shift may arrive across SE Texas Friday into Saturday. The models have not been all that consistent with a stronger push of drier/cooler air around the 8th of October. Typically the models struggle with these monsoonal/Central America gyre and can rush development. We also can see multiple vorts rotating within the gyre that models have a tough time resolving. Fingers crossed we get that stronger push of drier air off the Coast before this potential mischief gets into the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.

[Cpv17]

We will need to watch a tropical wave moving across the Central Caribbean Sea this morning. The marine surface charts suggest a weak area of lower pressure may develop and move little this week across the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities are rather high via the ensembles in the 48 hour timeframe. A weak backdoor front/wind shift may arrive across SE Texas Friday into Saturday. The models have not been all that consistent with a stronger push of drier/cooler air around the 8th of October. Typically the models struggle with these monsoonal/Central America gyre and can rush development. We also can see multiple vorts rotating within the gyre that models have a tough time resolving. Fingers crossed we get that stronger push of drier air off the Coast before this potential mischief gets into the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.

I’d rather it come this way as a weak system and dump a few inches of rain on areas that still need it. Mainly west of here.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!

[snowman65]

The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!

I'm crossing everything there is to cross....

[Cpv17]

I for one am hoping the front backs off. 75% of Texas still needs rain. We don’t need dry weather, but it’s looking more and more likely that this front will indeed make it down here.

[Cpv17]

The CPC btw still isn’t believing in the front. They keep us above average all the way through mid October.

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!

Falling in line with the re-calibrated GFW, who delayed the front by 4 days. Can't wait.

In the meantime, HOT.

Very humid this am, too.

[Scott747]

Area we've been talking about in the NW Caribbean is in the latest outlook from the nhc.

[Andrew]

Man mowing the lawn today was a little rough. Luckily, it is looking more and more likely our "first" front will push through next Monday/Tuesday. Interesting to note how aggressive. the ECMWF has been over the last couple of runs. Could we flirt with a low in the upper 40s?

[Texaspirate11]

With the anticipated cold front no worries about the NW carib cruiser

[Katdaddy]

Another hot and humid day across SE TX as we begin October. However a change continues to look more likely. From this mornings Hou-Gal NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

October begins as September ends - hot, and relatively dry. While this should largely define at least the first few days of the month, change is on the way. A cold front will work its way into Texas - not enough to reach here, but winds could turn enough to allow some modestly drier and cooler air to filter in for the weekend. A reinforcing cold front increasingly looks to finally give Southeast Texas its first cold front of the fall early next week. It`s not yet a sure bet, but confidence and hopes are increasing.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

[Cpv17]

The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

I’ll believe the models about this front when it’s inside of 3 days. How many times do models have a decent front for us in the medium to long range and then slowly drop it as it gets closer? It seems like that happens a lot!

[Kingwood36]

The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

I’ll believe the models about this front when it’s inside of 3 days. How many times do models have a decent front for us in the medium to long range and then slowly drop it as it gets closer? It seems like that happens a lot!

We do NOT need that kind of negativity in here! Lol

[Cromagnum]

The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

I’ll believe the models about this front when it’s inside of 3 days. How many times do models have a decent front for us in the medium to long range and then slowly drop it as it gets closer? It seems like that happens a lot!

I'll believe the models after the front has already blown through. I remember waiting until mid Novermber on more than one occasion before fall got its act together down here.

[Kludge]

It appears to me from my untrained eye that the 12Z Euro has that NW Caribbean crawler headed toward the TX coast until the front in question actually comes all the way through and causes it to curve toward FL.

So if there is skepticism (which I share) that the front makes it through... does that open the door for more moisture from the gulf?

The drought-stricken, heat-baked optimist in me would like to see a no-lose situation here.