September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Texashawk]

Here it comes, folks.

[Seantx81]

This looks terrible for Beaumont now. Our thoughts are with our neighbors to the east.

[unome]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/ ... 67&yr=2019

mcd0867 - Copy.gif

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0867
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190910Z - 191510Z

SUMMARY...Life-threatening flash flooding will continue across
areas of southeast Texas this morning as extremely heavy rainfall
persists in association with Tropical Depression Imelda.

DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Depression Imelda remains
positioned just west of Lufkin, TX and is only very slowly
drifting off to the northwest as of 4AM CDT. Meanwhile, an axis of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms continues to impact
areas of southeast Texas, with an emphasis on parts of Liberty,
Chambers, Jefferson and Orange counties where there are currently
Flash Flood Emergencies in effect.

The latest radar imagery shows very well-organized bands of
convection back-building and training across these counties as the
flow around the southern flank of Imelda is highly convergent and
well aligned with a very strong instability gradient. Radar in
conjunction with GOES-16 IR satellite imagery has been showing a
gradual expansion of convection farther off to the west involving
more areas of the northern suburbs of Houston, and including
Montgomery county where very heavy rainfall has been attempting to
become more focused over the last couple of hours.

An examination of the area VWP data suggest the details of the
general west/east axis of stronger low-level forcing/convergence
have changed very little over the past few hours, and the latest
suite of model guidance shows little in the way of change to this
going through the mid-morning hours. This strongly suggests that
the current convective orientation is not likely to change much
over the next several hours. A moderate to strongly unstable
airmass and plenty of deep tropical moisture is expected to remain
in place along and just south of this convergence axis and should
continue to facilitate very strong convection capable of extreme
rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates overnight have been as high as near 5 inches/hr
within the strongest of convective cores, and there have been some
prolific rainfall totals, including a site 3 miles east-northeast
of Hamshire, TX in western Jefferson county where 17.24 inches of
rain was reported in 6 hours through 08Z, and a storm total of
28.11 inches.

Additional rainfall totals through mid-morning of 5 to 10 inches
are expected locally, which will bring some isolated storm totals
for the event to possibly around 35 inches. This is consistent
with the latest HRRR output regarding the additional rainfall
totals. Extreme and life-threatening flash flooding is already
occurring and is expected to continue this morning given the
additional rainfall totals.

Elsewhere, some of the heavy rainfall may again edge into parts of
west-central and southwest LA, but the dominant focus will remain
over southeast TX, with an emphasis Liberty, Chambers, Jefferson
and Orange counties.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

[jasons2k]

The lightning to my north is almost constant, and that band seems to be every so slowly inching this way. Been this way for about an hour or so, but only in the last few minutes I can start to hear the thunder.

And my gosh I feel for Beaumont. Can’t find the words.

[stormlover]

It’s bad here, like Harvey like in some places, what’s bad it’s not over with and these creeks and bayous will jake get worse

[unome]

12 NewsNow is currently streaming live Imelda coverage via YouTube...

https://twitter.com/12NewsNow/status/11 ... 79105?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenParsons7/status/ ... 1224692736

Update: We are having to end our wall-to-wall coverage on Imelda and evacuate our building due to flooding. @12NewsNow

[unome]

thread: https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/ ... 3204736000

Extreme flash flood event ongoing this morning in southeast Texas. Unfortunately, you can still see new updrafts forming NW of IAH, so backbuilding and training configuration remains active. Rain amounts should continue to climb quickly.

Still raining heavily at many of these locations, so totals may begin to eclipse 30” on some observations.

Max unit streamflow values from @MRMS_FLASH pushing above 20 over a large swath of several counties in SE TX at 5 AM. Don’t see values that high often. Strong indicator of ongoing extreme flash flooding. #TweetForScientists

Associated experimental probability of major flash flooding from @MRMS_FLASH pushing over 50% now in some areas of Jefferson, Orange, Liberty, and Chambers Counties in Texas. Serious flash flood situation ongoing [5 AM].

Technical discussion from @NWSWPC outlines recipe for bad flooding to get even worse: “current convective orientation is not likely to change much over the next several hours” AND “Extreme and life-threatening flash flooding... is expected to continue”

Ongoing flooding situation in SE TX is very serious and many roads are likely to be flooded and extremely dangerous. Vehicles driving into flood waters are BY FAR the number one cause of flood-related deaths.
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

[unome]

48 hr precip analysis from : from https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&s ... opacity=70

they need to add color scales to better show areas over 14"

legend - Copy.png

Screenshot_2019-09-19 NWS Weather Hazards(1) - Copy.png

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 3077968897

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Flash Flood Warning including Conroe TX, Willis TX, Panorama Village TX until 7:30 AM CDT

[unome]

Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project at NOAA's National Severe Storms Lab & the University of Oklahoma

http://flash.ou.edu/new/
https://blog.nssl.noaa.gov/flash/
https://twitter.com/MRMS_FLASH

[srainhoutx]

The latest 09Z HRRR has a good handle on the current situation. It is worrisome to see the expansion W as well as widening the current band into NW and Northern Harris County as the morning wears on. Folks to the SW of Downtown and up in the College Station/Groveton area may get your shot at heavy rain as well this afternoon/evening. Winnie is taking it on the chin this morning as well as folks in Cleveland, Moss Hill, Tarkington Prairie, Rye and Dayton/Liberty. Beaumont, Orange and Port Arthur certainly are experiencing a terrible situation.

[srainhoutx]

A brief look at the Medium/Extended Range suggests another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea should push into the Gulf next Monday. This surge of deep tropical moisture may bring additional rainfall across our Region early to mid next week.

[snowman65]

Well I just made it in to work in Downtown Beaumont, driving in from Orange (no issues there for me. Yard was not even pooling water like it usually will during these events). I drove I-10. It was POURING down the entire drive. I only noticed some localized high water on some feeder roads. From what I can tell downtown looks OK. No standing water on any of the roads that I was on. Going to be an interesting next 12 hours for sure.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports Conroe received 5.16 inches the past hour

[jasons2k]

The lightning is nonstop. It is like a strobe light. I mean constant like something I’ve never seen before. Thunder getting closer and closer.

[Tx2005]

A brief look at the Medium/Extended Range suggests another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea should push into the Gulf next Monday. This surge of deep tropical moisture may bring additional rainfall across our Region early to mid next week.

I hope SE Texas doesn’t take another hit like this.

[jasons2k]

One of our longtime Storm2k mods (Southergale) got flooded during Harvey. Lives in Pinewood Estates. The neighborhood is cut off again. Houses are flooding. Her house has not flooded yet but I’m afraid it’s only a matter of time at this point. I told her at about 10 last night to get out. They were already stuck in the neighborhood by then. This is just awful. My heart is sinking.

[srainhoutx]

LCH is about to Re Issue a Flash Flood Emergency for Jefferson/Orange Counties. Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding is happening currently in Beaumont/Vidor. NWS Lake Charles is strongly advising everyone to shelter in place and DO NOT TRAVEL

[bikerack]

The big line of storms to our north has finally sagged into Kingwood. Starting to pour. Lightning is CRAZY.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Warning coming for Chambers County

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT.

* AT 639 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR WINNIE, OR 9 MILES WEST OF HAMSHIRE, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS FLASH FLOODING, AS
THIS AREA IS IN A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WINNIE AROUND 655 AM CDT.
STOWELL AROUND 700 AM CDT.