September 2019 - Warm End of September

[DoctorMu]

Things going as predicted. Hang on, between Houston and Beaumont!

Lovely tropical drizzle here with tiny raindrops in CLL. That's probably all we will see. Hope Imelda gets the lead out of her behind and begins to move north and out of the picture for those in SE Texas.

[snowman65]

How fast..or slow..is this thing moving right now?

[djmike]

Been this way since 5am this morning in Beaumont. WILL. NOT. BUDGE... stay safe everyone.

Imelda making her presence known in Beaumont

[jasons2k]

Things going as predicted. Hang on, between Houston and Beaumont!

Lovely tropical drizzle here with tiny raindrops in CLL. That's probably all we will see. Hope Imelda gets the lead out of her behind and begins to move north and out of the picture for those in SE Texas.

Sorry man. This is what I expected and what I was afraid of. It’s like I-45 is a wall... maybe when it drifts north over the next few days it can pull something that way, but for now you have to admire from afar.

Scott - meant to reply earlier - glad you are OK. Hang in there boss.

[Cpv17]

I’ve gotten a whopping quarter inch so far lol looks like the rain is done with sw of Houston. At least the temps are cooler.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL112019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

...IMELDA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING SPREADING
INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM E OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY:

ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO EASTERN TEXAS,
INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS...ADDITIONAL
5 TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 20 TO 25 INCHES.

ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.

THESE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TO LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER CARBIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 30.6N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 31.2N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/1200Z 31.8N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0000Z 31.7N 95.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1200Z 31.5N 96.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[Cromagnum]

Looks like a pretty good core rain going on near Splendora / Cleveland. Houston proper and points to the south and southwest look to be done by my eyes. Eastern part of the viewing area looks to get beat up today.

[txbear]

Looks like the core has gotten itself organized with the rains just to the east of the circulation near Conroe, with a new band forming right along 249. That feeder initiating from Matagorda Bay is unrelenting for those folks along the coast up to Beaumont and points further east. West...thankful for not flooding, but could've benefited from a bit more rain.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=26

rgem 12 run

[Kludge]

So far, huge bust roughly north and west of downtown Houston. All the heavy stuff is south and east. No 30” for Waller, no widespread 20” for NW Harris...but that’s a good thing. I’d like to get some rain out of this though - geez. It is finally raining harder than a sprinkle here, and the core finally appears after being absent all night.

It appears that the CoC is coming to see you now. Might be a "careful what you ask for" situation.

[djmike]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=26

rgem 12 run

Bullseye Jefferson county again. Just determined to make me build that ark!

[CrashTestDummy]

The thing looks to be drifting eastward, from the radar loop. But that's just me.

[snowman65]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=26

rgem 12 run

Bullseye Jefferson county again. Just determined to make me build that ark!

Yeah...that's not good.....

[Kingwood36]

So no more rain for the coast? Looks to be movinf out i thought was suppose to last till thursday

[jasons2k]

So far, huge bust roughly north and west of downtown Houston. All the heavy stuff is south and east. No 30” for Waller, no widespread 20” for NW Harris...but that’s a good thing. I’d like to get some rain out of this though - geez. It is finally raining harder than a sprinkle here, and the core finally appears after being absent all night.

It appears that the CoC is coming to see you now. Might be a "careful what you ask for" situation.

Good to see you again old neighbor!!

It has jogged NE for now. Possibly another loop, but it’s definitely more towards US 59 and the Cleveland area. So far I’m just getting intermittent light to moderate showers. 1.75” since midnight and just over 2” for a storm total.

[stormlover]

So no more rain for the coast? Looks to be movinf out i thought was suppose to last till thursday

it's not moving out it will do a couple of loops and move out friday morning, all the models show this

[jasons2k]

All - just to clarify - this is a multi-day event. As the remnants drift off to the north, the orientation of the bands and inflow will change. If it drifts to the NNW as forecast, the Houston area could once again be in the inflow with heavy feeder bands.

It’s not over ‘till it’s over.

[bikerack]

Very nice soaking rains in the front of Kingwood. 3.5" in the last 24 hours....most overnight and this morning. Nothing overwhelming.

[Kingwood36]

I dont see this being a multi dsy event when the radar is showing clearing...maybe im missing something

[snowman65]

Looks to me like it's taken a sudden turn east....??