September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Rip76]

Dropped to 20%

Which may be a good thing regarding rain here.

[Cpv17]

Dropped to 20%

Which may be a good thing regarding rain here.

The rain threat has trended in the wrong direction today.

[jasons2k]

The updated forecast from the NWS has a 60% chance of rain for me on Wednesday and Thursday now, so there’s still hope for some rain. We shall see...

[DoctorMu]

Canadian weights in with a foot of rain. ICON slides east of I-45. GFS west of HOU with the largest bolus of rain.

More flipping than consensus.

[Rip76]

Down to 10%.

[cperk]

Down to 10%.

Good no one wants an organized system just the rain.

[srainhoutx]

Radar looks a bit more active this morning offshore and I believe there were SPS issued around 4 AM along the Coastal tier of Counties. The Weather Prediction Center 5 Day QPF chart is still hopeful regarding our rain chances through at least mid week and we do have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday. Oh and a still see no sign of a strong front heading our way through the end of September.

09152019 08Z 5 Day QPF p120i.gif

09152019 Day 2 ER 98ewbg.gif

09152019 Day 3 ER 99ewbg.gif

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 3m3 minutes ago

Tropical weather outlook...Gulf system chances have diminished to 10% for development. But it should bring much needed rainfall to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday.

[jasons2k]

I’m not liking the trend I already see on this morning’s radar with everything offshore and south of here. Perhaps it will be different as we get into the week.

On a positive note, the NWS has 60% chances of rain on Tue, Wed, and Thu. The trend there has been in the right direction. I haven’t seen that many days over 50% in a long time.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z 12km NAM suggests some of our SW neighbors could see 6 to 10 inches of rain over the next 84 hours.

[Cromagnum]

I'm not digging those light blues over Houston. I'll take anything I can get but 1 inch of rain with a tropical system is pathetic

[Cpv17]

It’s looking like areas sw of Houston stand the biggest chance at seeing significant rainfall from what I’m seeing right now. The ICON is the only model I see that has the rain east of Houston.

[Rip76]

High pressure still over us.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests that rain chances will continue throughout the upcoming work week.

[jasons2k]

High pressure still over us.

There is more dry air on today's water vapor loop than there was yesterday, even though it is surrounded my moist air. It's like Texas and Northern Mexico are able to magically manufacture its own dry air.

[Cpv17]

Man, the CMC is trying to flood southeast Texas with 10-20”. Crazy uncle!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian is sticking to its ridiculous estimated precipitation amounts of 15 to 20 inches +...I hope it is a convective feedback issue.

[don]

FWIW the 0z and 12z CMC are very aggressive with rainfall due to showing a "core" rain event over the area, just something to watch.

[srainhoutx]

Some trends I am watching are the collapse of the steering flow once the upper low moves inland. I believe that the computer models are still attempting to resolve that issue. I do see the early Update from the WPC Afternoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecast graphics will increase the rainfall amounts for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Their outlook also shows some rain chances lingering into next weekend.

[DoctorMu]

High pressure still over us.

There is more dry air on today's water vapor loop than there was yesterday, even though it is surrounded my moist air. It's like Texas and Northern Mexico are able to magically manufacture its own dry air.

We saw a flux of the dry stuff yesterday afternoon as the dewpoint reached a nadir of 59°F. Just a hint of cloud cover, and it was OK to mow without incredible dripping sweat. Did have to turn on the sprinklers full blast, though!