September 2019 - Warm End of September

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=72

Icon model has 15 plus inches of rain

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Hunter missions for the Gulf disturbance have been tasked with the first mission scheduled for tomorrow afternoon/evening...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 14 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-109

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 15/2230Z                   A. 15/2330Z
       B. NOAA2 0909A HUMBERTO       B. AFXXX 1009A HUMBERTO
       C. 15/2100Z                   C. 15/2115Z
       D. 29.4N 78.0W                D. 29.5N 78.0W
       E. 15/2200Z TO 16/0300Z       E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0230Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 16/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 1109A HUMBERTO
       C. 16/0900Z
       D. 30.0N 77.0W
       E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 15/2000Z                   A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 15/1830Z                   C. 16/0945Z
       D. 25.0N 94.5W                D. 26.0N 96.0W
       E. 15/1930Z TO 15/2330Z       E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES INTO HUMBERTO WHILE SYSTEM
          REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO SUSPECT AREA IN WESTERN
          GULF OF MEXICO IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

    4. REMARK: THE MISSION TASKED ON TCPOD 19-108 INTO THE
       SUSPECT AREA EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WAS
       CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

[sambucol]

When will the rain start in our area?

[Rip76]

When will the rain start in our area?

I would think Sunday afternoon/evening?

Not a cloud in the sky today.

[Cromagnum]

Hoping for lots of rain and soon lots of cold. This hot BS has worn out it's welcome.

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=72

Icon model has 15 plus inches of rain

I’ll pass on that model. Only has me getting two inches lol the flooding rain threat is there though. Some of the models are coming onboard with 5+ inches over a widespread area.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like your initial 40% was pretty spot-on

I just want rain (but not flooding). I’m only asking the weather gods the thread a needle for us lol

Stout band out in the Gulf this morning on our local radar. The NWS has increased our rain chances for next week, topping out at 60% on Wednesday.

About 50% chance Wed and Thursday now in CLL. Highs in the upper 80s. Fingers crossed.

[DoctorMu]

We've had 2.9 in of rain since June 30.

Some are doing even worse.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests the best chances of rain begin Monday afternoon/evening continuing into Tuesday. The Wednesday/Thursday timeframe looks to bring increasing chance of rain even into the Hill Country. The highest concentration of rainfall over the 5 day period is focused along the Middle Texas Coast.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro came in weaker than the 0z run. Way less rainfall than the 0z run. Basically has nothing north of 10.

[DoctorMu]

The 12z Euro came in weaker than the 0z run. Way less rainfall than the 0z run. Basically has nothing north of 10.

Canadian brings the rain mostly west of Houston, from Victoria through CLL. Individual models, not surprisingly still struggling. However, GEFS and GEPS Ensembles are also wildly different. ICON as mentioned is a coastal deluge.

It's a crapshoot currently, at the edge of the 5 day forecast. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro came in weaker than the 0z run. Way less rainfall than the 0z run. Basically has nothing north of 10.

Canadian brings the rain mostly west of Houston, from Victoria through CLL. Individual models, not surprisingly still struggling. However, GEFS and GEPS Ensembles are also wildly different. ICON as mentioned is a coastal deluge.

It's a crapshoot currently, at the edge of the 5 day forecast. We'll see.

I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

[cperk]

We've had 2.9 in of rain since June 30.

Some are doing even worse.

I've gotten only 2.49 since July.

[Cpv17]

We've had 2.9 in of rain since June 30.

Some are doing even worse.

I've gotten only 2.49 since July.

Up till this past week we’ve only had 1.75” since the beginning of June. In the past week we’ve had 4.6”.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC QPF graphics just Updated. Here is the totals for 7 Days.

[Cpv17]

I’ll take it. I like how the bigger totals are aimed more towards me sw of Houston lol

[jasons2k]

Deep thoughts by Jack Handey:

Seems like when these systems impact Louisiana/MS/AL, there is still a lot of rain well north and east of the center. And when systems come in the Middle or Lower Texas coast, the moisture just hugs the center or stays just offshore. I don’t get it. It’s not like we have some physical barrier over SE Texas that would stop the rain, but it stops anyway.

[djmike]

Yup. Its usually N/NE thats has copious amounts of rain and possible flooding with tropical systems, but the ones that near TX, heck this barely gives me any rain here in Beaumont. I have not had a drop in 3 weeks! My grass is crunchy, plants are withering and its starting to look like 2011 here all over again. Hope this system becomes a low end depression and comes on shore near Galveston. That would suffice Hou/Bmnt with plenty of refreshing moisture.

[869MB]

Deep thoughts by Jack Handey:

Seems like when these systems impact Louisiana/MS/AL, there is still a lot of rain well north and east of the center. And when systems come in the Middle or Lower Texas coast, the moisture just hugs the center or stays just offshore. I don’t get it. It’s not like we have some physical barrier over SE Texas that would stop the rain, but it stops anyway.

I think he summed it up perfectly. I've noticed the same thing over the years. Whenever it comes to SE Texas, it's always something...Either a sharp offshore coastal trough develops, thus bottling up all the moisture offshore...Or a short wave moving across the state just in the nick time of time to shunt all of the moisture to the east and southeast of the region into Louisiana or the Gulf...Or a tropical wave moving toward the area that wraps up into an organized system taking all of the moisture into Louisiana...Or a stout area of high pressure that builds in from the north and shunts all of the moisture into South Texas and Mexico...Pick one, I've seen all of these scenarios over the years.

However, maybe this system will be different for our area. We shall see.

[stormlover]

Will know more by tomorrow night, models been going back and forth