September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Texaspirate11]

Has it been declared Humberto yet?
I remember the last Humberto - sneaky little storm

[Scott747]

Really interesting how the nhc is handling 95l.

They only slightly changed the 5 day outlook. It doesn't show a westward type of bend as it did but still shows a general ngom threat though the cone is enough that something more up the e coast of fla isn't out of the question.

Almost all guidance now is in fact a more Eastern solution except for the GFS and it's ensembles. A good amount of the 0z GFS ensembles shifted back to the w towards la and the upper tx coast. Thought earlier it might be the I'll but looks like the vorticity near the Bahamas.

Definitely a huge spread between the two big guns with the operational 0z euro not even getting close to the gom and moves towards the Outer Banks.

[Scott747]

06z GFS brings some sort of stretched out vorticity to the nw gulf. Seems like the ull to me.

Can't say I've seen quite the spread like this in the models with the 0z euro run.

[Scott747]

NHC budges a little more with the eastern solutions on the TWO. Track into the gulf is still an option but not as likely as before.

[srainhoutx]

The 8:00AM change in graphic in their Tropical Weather Outlook. 95L now has a high chance for becoming a tropical depression/tropical storm with the next 24 to 48 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning 95L Update from Jeff:

Tropical disturbance over the Bahamas now has an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Complex interaction of an upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a tropical wave over the Bahamas is resulting in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity with the feature in the last 24 hours. It does not appear at this time that a defined low level center has formed, but there are two areas being watched for this formation. The first area is in the SW Bahamas near and NE of Cuba and the second area is over the eastern Bahamas where deeper convection has been developing overnight. Models had been generally favoring the SW area for the center formation over the last few days, but overnight there has been a significant shift in the ECMWF model which now develops the center much further north and east and no longer shows a track of 95L into the Gulf of Mexico which is similar to the UKMET model. The GFS model still shows a much weaker system tracking into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. I am tending to lean toward the more eastward and north solution given the SSW/SW shear in place which tends to favor center relocations toward the N and NE toward the overall deeper convective areas.

A USAF mission is planned for this afternoon to investigate this system

[jasons2k]

Yep, Euro shifted east of Florida. Looks like we will need to look elsewhere for rain. Hopefully that ULL will bring us something.

[snowman65]

They way things have been going I wouldn't be surprised if 95L is CAT 1 minimum at landfall. See Dorian...did anyone see that going from CAT 1 to CAT 5?.

[jasons2k]

I’m concerned the NWS is hedging our rain chances next week on 95L. If it does swing east, we may get nada:

However, models are remaining somewhat bullish with the idea of increased rain chances for our CWFA by Sun. This looks to be related to the possible dev-
elopment/movement of tropical disturbance 95L into the E/NE Gulf.

Still not a lot of consensus on where this system will eventually
go (or do)...but its proximity by Mon/Tues would seem to indicate
increasing moisture/lift to warrant at least chance POPs for this
time frame. Stay tuned. 41

[Scott747]

It's definitely the GFS v. everybody else.

The 6z ensembles had even more members shift towards the upper tx coast and w la.

As of now no other reliable model is close to that scenario.

[srainhoutx]

Things that make me chuckle when we don't have a genesis yet...

[jasons2k]

Yep it all depends on where the center forms. Then it all comes down to timing, as usual.

[DoctorMu]

Yep it all depends on where the center forms. Then it all comes down to timing, as usual.

Initial conditions. [insert Alabama joke here]

[BlueJay]

Although we missed out on the rain fun that some received yesterday, we are getting a lovely rain shower right now. So grateful as the AC is still out of commission.

[DoctorMu]

0z GFS appears to go gyre/lemon on 95L, drifting through the gulf. Of greater interest is a COLD FRONT on the 21st approaching the area.



Some potential for precip with it.

[DoctorMu]

GEFS Ensemble also leans western GoM lemonade...would be nice.

[Rip76]

GEFS Ensemble also leans western GoM lemonade...would be nice.

Yes!

[jasons2k]

Although we missed out on the rain fun that some received yesterday, we are getting a lovely rain shower right now. So grateful as the AC is still out of commission.

Yeah lots of showers at the office in The Woodlands this morning — nothing at the house on the other side of 45 though...

[Cpv17]

Huge difference between the Euro & GFS regarding 95L.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro looks ok for rain next week if you’re south of 10. Lots of rain towards Corpus Christi.