September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Rip76]

Some changes are brewing in our local sensible weather this morning and a surge of deeper tropical moisture is nearing our area as a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) pushes toward Northern Mexico/S Texas. Early morning water vapor imagery clearly show the TUTT low nearing Brownsville a deeper tropical moisture to the Eats of that upper low moving inland in Louisiana heading West. I am not sure everyone will get rain beginning Monday, but at least some will have a shot at daytime showers/storms continuing through at least Wednesday. Fingers Crossed!

I wonder if we can reach convective temps

[unome]

anyone catch Hurricane Man ? It's intense, made me catch my breath & not leave my seat until it was over & I cried - several times - such poignant, human stories behind the science - may have to upgrade to catch the entire series - kudos to Josh & Science Channel & all the players involved - well done

[Scott747]

Time to keep an eye on that newly designated yellow area north of the Antilles.

The euro has been on it for a few days. Mostly a weak system towards the ngom but the 12z run brought the vorticity to the upper tx coast.

Little other model support except for the icon ...

[Scott747]

anyone catch Hurricane Man ? It's intense, made me catch my breath & not leave my seat until it was over & I cried - several times - such poignant, human stories behind the science - may have to upgrade to catch the entire series - kudos to Josh & Science Channel & all the players involved - well done

Editing team killed my participation on the cutting room floor.

Solid show. Know they are kicking themselves for not being with him for Dorian.

[unome]

anyone catch Hurricane Man ? It's intense, made me catch my breath & not leave my seat until it was over & I cried - several times - such poignant, human stories behind the science - may have to upgrade to catch the entire series - kudos to Josh & Science Channel & all the players involved - well done

Editing team killed my participation on the cutting room floor.

Solid show. Know they are kicking themselves for not being with him for Dorian.

I'm so sorry to hear that, Scott - we all would have loved for you to be in the final cut

[srainhoutx]

I ran across this photo for those longing for colder weather...

[CrashTestDummy]

I ran across this photo for those longing for colder weather...

Cooler weather? Yes! Colder weather, like that picture, NO! Enjoyed working in the yard today. Under the trees, into the wind, it was quite pleasant, almost cold. In the sun, the usual oppressive Houston heat.

[Cpv17]

I ran across this photo for those longing for colder weather...

Cooler weather? Yes! Colder weather, like that picture, NO! Enjoyed working in the yard today. Under the trees, into the wind, it was quite pleasant, almost cold. In the sun, the usual oppressive Houston heat.

Colder weather is awesome as long as it comes with winter precipitation. Otherwise it’s just annoying and a waste of cold air. Different strokes for different folks!

[Cromagnum]

Wild little thunderstorm just came through Rosharon. Tons of lightning and loud rolling thunder. Still raining pretty hard.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a shower in NW Harris County now.

[srainhoutx]

Thought it worth mentioning this morning that the WPC suggests the disturbance N of the Leeward Islands may near Florida on Friday and continue Westbound under the strong Bermuda Ridge. The WPC suggests the tropical wave will be nearing Central/SW Louisiana a week form today.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 090828
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Mid/upper level low over south Tx will meander in that general
area for the next couple days. Early this morning, a small
vorticity lobe on its ne periphery is making its way into our
coastal waters and toward the coast. Scattered shra/tstms have
developed in association with this feature along with increasing
moisture levels. Majority of models have not really picked up on
this overnight activity, but that being said...some of the hires
guidance indicates there might be a touch more inland precip
coverage today once we get some daytime heating than what was
earlier thought. Though not overly confident, went ahead and
nudged POPs up bit inland this afternoon - generally a compromise
between the more aggressive NSSL/HRRR/ARW and that of the global
models. Will watch trends and adjust accordingly. Same general
pattern is expected Tue & Wed...though we should see PW`s climb
to around 2" Wed so better rain chances and areal coverage can be
anticipated then. Temps, though above normal, will be lower than
what we saw over the weekend. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Large H5 ridge extending over the southeastern states and the
cntl/ern Gulf will flatten and overall flow should transition more
to the east. Recycled drier air will advect into the region from
the east Thurs-Sat which should allow for lower, but not nil, rain
chances. An easterly wave may track westward under the ridge in
the cntl/srn Gulf late in the week and weekend, but shouldn`t have
much of an impact locally. 47

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to our east is helping to produce a light/moderate on-
shore flow across the marine waters this morning...with this pattern
persisting through the rest of the week. A slight uptick with winds/
seas will be possible today and tomorrow with the approach and pass-
age of an upper level disturbance and deeper moisture from the Gulf.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will also increase with this system. 41

&&

.AVIATION [12z Issuance]...
Looks like we`ll be starting the day with some activity at/along the
coast...with patchy fog over inland areas. Near-term models are ind-
icating that this current batch moving inland will be weakening/mix-
ing out by late morning. However, we should see re-development later
this afternoon given daytime heating. Not that confident with all of
this playing out as progged as this is the first round and the air-
mass over SE TX may still be a bit too dry. At any rate, will likely
go with at least the mention of VCTS for sites north of I-10 for the
19-21Z timeframe. WAA type SHRAs may be possible early Tues morning.
41

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 75 95 / 30 20 30 0 30
Houston (IAH) 95 76 94 77 93 / 30 20 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 83 91 / 30 20 30 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TROPICAL...
CLIMATE...

[jasons2k]

Rain on the radar in all directions, and a big gaping hole of nothing over the Houston area (so far).

It's 98 degrees here. I'd say convective temperatures have been met...but it doesn't seem to really matter

[jasons2k]

Geez lots of activity north of here...nothing downstream (south) of here yet.

This is torture.

[redneckweather]

Geez lots of activity north of here...nothing downstream (south) of here yet.

This is torture.

Yep, storms west and east of me today. Not a drop at my house and everything is brown.

[DoctorMu]

Geez lots of activity north of here...nothing downstream (south) of here yet.

This is torture.

Surrounded by clouds and rain. All Lucy and the football IMBY so far. Have to be satisfied with under 100°F and cloudy conditions for now.

[BlueJay]

A/C went kerplunk last Saturday night. No rain here either, but I am so grateful that the skies are a bit cloudy and the temps are 6 or 7 degrees cooler!

Thanks for the snow picture, srain. I has kept me cool for today!

[srainhoutx]

A/C went kerplunk last Saturday night. No rain here either, but I am so grateful that the skies are a bit cloudy and the temps are 6 or 7 degrees cooler!

Thanks for the snow picture, srain. I has kept me cool for today!

Thank you so much for the kind words, BlueJay! As I begin a transition to a new life of 'retirement' in the beautiful Mountains of far Western NC in the not tooo distant future...God willing, I will always treasure my birth City and my weather roots. One thing that is unique about our weather Family, we will always share the passion! One day in the not too distant future I may be sharing some real snow pictures from 3500 feet!

[BlueJay]

A/C went kerplunk last Saturday night. No rain here either, but I am so grateful that the skies are a bit cloudy and the temps are 6 or 7 degrees cooler!

Thanks for the snow picture, srain. I has kept me cool for today!

Thank you so much for the kind words, BlueJay! As I begin a transition to a new life of 'retirement' in the beautiful Mountains of far Western NC in the not tooo distant future...God willing, I will always treasure my birth City and my weather roots. One thing that is unique about our weather Family, we will always share the passion! One day in the not too distant future I may be sharing some real snow pictures from 3500 feet!

I am so happy for you Srain! But your news makes me so sad too! This forum will always need you, your brilliant insight and your guidance. I hope that you will make the time to share those real snow pictures when the time comes!

[srainhoutx]

I will never be too far away from our Texas Weather Family. I still have real Family here! I look forward to many more years of participation on our Weather Community.