Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Paul]

what are we seeing? HELLO?

How about stop saying "HELLO?" in every post

agreed.....

BD38 what are you seeing? care to explain...

[bdog38]

i respect weather. im not trying to stir the pot.
im thinking whos alex

[bdog38]

the seperation between the blob and alex

[sau27]

the seperation between the blob and alex

You are just seeing a convective complex get thrown off from the center. There is no re-formation of the center going on. These storms have blowups that are sometimes away from the center. Nothing unusual

[ronyan]

1 AM advisory from the NHC brings Alex to 80 mph winds and 972 mb. Moving West at 5 mph. Now it's bed time.

[djjordan]

Alex has certainly slowed down,,,,,, looks like more of a slow WNW component as well but crawling.

could be a wobble though

[biggerbyte]

I did not think anyone cared about my opinion at all. The few that left messages were very kind. Enough was said to sway my decision.

Having said that... I'm posting now, guys, because BB is worried. The conditions that are/were moving Alex along are changing again, and will change further. I mentioned earlier how difficult this storm has been, but we thought he was ready to learn Spanish. Now he has at times stalled, and other times added a northerly component to his movement. I'm concerned about a possible breakdown in the ridge situation, something in the order of a split between the two, that would allow yet another weakness, and in turn allow Alex to move between Brownsville and Corpus.. Maybe even S.E. Texas.

Now, I hope you guys understand that I'm concerned for my neighbors. Yes, I mean you. I'm not fear mongering. This is what I currently see. You will probably get this information from others as well, but I felt it right to share my thoughts. In the meantime, the rains are coming, folks, whether Alex waves to you as he passes by, or not.

Be safe...

BB

[biggerbyte]

Oh my God.. I know I am not seeing things.. He is lifting northward.. Hmmm!
Only time will tell if it is temporary.

[Mr. T]

Oh my God.. I know I am not seeing things.. He is lifting northward.. Hmmm!
Only time will tell if it is temporary.

Just by looking at the long range radar out of BRO, Alex did move north for a couple of hours and is now definitely continueing a NW heading. 0z models all shifted north a good deal, so perhaps this storm will actually make landfall closer to Brownsville than previously expected

BTW BB, please stick around. You are one of the good guys on here...

[Mr. T]

All coastal offices from New Orleans to Brownsville (including EWX) have flood watches issued for counties in their CWA, except for HGX.

[biggerbyte]

Thanks, Tyler. I've always like you. It is great to see you guys liking me back. Sometimes things are not as they seem.. No?

Anyway! Tyler, I'm really concerned about Alex again. Yesterday I just know that many folks that were using the forum have the idea that Texas is in the clear. I gave up on trying to ask them to keep an open mind. I just hope they come back and take a look at things as they are today. Maybe most everyone has their house in order anyway.

S2K is alive at this hour as well. There are still a few diehards, such as us, and the few over there that believe it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings. Sure enough.... If anything, Alex today will prove a point and wake up a few people. Saving lives is what it is all about, as you know. You are well on your way to being one of those professional weather people... How many years has it been now? We've seen so many weather events together out in this area. Heck, I even remember your having to move away for a period of time.

Anyway... Let's kick this storm in the rear.. He's ticking me off.. Shall we?

Dwayne

BB

[Scott747]

Just by looking at the long range radar out of BRO, Alex did move north for a couple of hours and is now definitely continueing a NW heading. 0z models all shifted north a good deal, so perhaps this storm will actually make landfall closer to Brownsville than previously expected

Stewart definitely highlight the shift in some of the models and specifically the Euro. Still sounds like they are confident in the ridge rebuilding enough to keep Alex on a WNW heading and eventually W.

No doubt it has been some odd short-term movement that they should have seen with all the data.

[Scott747]

In the end (at least for now) Stewart only adjusted the track slightly to the N and even that wasn't much.

The short-term movement besides being influenced by being between the two ridges could have also been a product of a deepening system. Eye is still open to the S and many times you will see these wobbles while it continues to wrap fully around.

Crazy pressure vs wind relationship but I've been on a bit of a tangent over the last few years about how much of a difference we can sometimes find with the winds at the surface relative to the pressure.

[Mr. T]

How many years has it been now? We've seen so many weather events together out in this area. Heck, I even remember your having to move away for a period of time.

Dwayne

BB

I've been on this forum since the Xmas Snow in 04. It has been a long time... You are definitely one of the persons I can remember from way back, and it has been fun for sure.

Anyway, Dwayne, you should get some sleep (or are you up for the day? lol). It's going to be a busy, rainy day around here...

[Hardcoreweather]

Track Alex on radar


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?r...01111&loop=yes

[Hardcoreweather]

958.7 just a tad north too.

Time: 10:27:00Z
Coordinates: 23.3667N 95.1167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.2 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,140 meters (~ 3,740 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 959.0 mb (~ 28.32 inHg)D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 238° at 4 knots (From the WSW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 21.0°C (~ 69.8°F)
Dew Pt: 18.1°C (~ 64.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 1 knots* (~ 1.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[Hardcoreweather]

Recon and Radar

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX MOVING IN NO HURRY......


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Certainly appears that Alex has slowed a bit over night. Also seems to be a a little N of forecast points. S TX feeling the effects from Alex...