June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[Rip76]

Looks like we’ve got some sea breeze action popping up this morning.

[Cpv17]

Decent rain chances the next few days - up to 60% for Monday.

Not looking good at all.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook places all of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Father's Day.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

TXZ199-213-152045-
Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Greater Inwood, or near Jersey Village, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Humble, Jersey Village, Aldine, The Woodlands, Greater
Greenspoint, Spring, northwestern Northside / Northline, Spring
Branch North, Kingwood, northwestern Greater Heights, Oak Ridge
North, Panorama Village, Shenandoah, Patton Village, Roman Forest,
Woodbranch, Cut And Shoot, Woodloch and Bush Intercontinental
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

[jasons2k]

It poured really hard here, but it was brief. Only 0.09”

Rain chances upped to 70% tomorrow!!

[srainhoutx]

Could be an active weather day ahead, so keep a keen eye one storms, possibly severe developing this afternoon into the overnight hours. The Storm Predication Center has Updated their Day 1 Convective Outlook to now include much of our Region in Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threat.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. The short tem mesoscale models and the GFS are suggesting a generally 1 to 2 inches with some isolated totals nearing 4 to 5 inches the next 24 to 36 hours.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center expands the Enhanced Risk for severe storms into Austin and New Braunfels. Slight Risk continues for a large portion of SE Texas.

[DoctorMu]

Potent line of storms around Madisonville and scattered popcorn feeder showers around Houston.

Largely a bust so far here. Juicy air, heavy clouds...but no rain.

PW's east of here and towards Houston 1.8+. We'll see.

[mckinne63]

Just had a quick shower here in Stafford. Just enough to make it hot and steamy outside.

[Katdaddy]

Numerous storms firing over the N portions of SE TX.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TRINITY...NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...CENTRAL HOUSTON AND
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTIES...

At 117 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Trinity, or 20
miles southeast of Austonio, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Lovelady, Riverside, Sebastopol and
Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[jasons2k]

Mammatus clouds here

[mckinne63]

I am hearing Angels bowling here in Stafford.

[unome]

I think that band entering Harris County from the SW might be messing with our planned grill time

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif

glad to not need to water soon though, loved the rain we've had so far

[cperk]

A little over a half inch here in Richmond.

[Cromagnum]

Map earlier showed this to be a Central Texas event. Looks to be more like an East Texas event.

[unome]

enhanced thunderstorm outlooks issued 06/16 by SPC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/ge ... e=20190616

it seemed to me to be clear to expect thunderstorms & possible severe, even in our local forecast

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
611 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Areas affected...Central and Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162209Z - 170345Z

Summary...Numerous thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of
central and southeast Texas late this afternoon and into the
evening hours. These are likely to produce heavy rainfall, and in
some cases may concentrate over certain locations for several
hours. Flash flooding is possible in areas where heavy rain can
last for a couple hours.

Discussion...A complex mesoscale environment exists across the
eastern half of Texas this afternoon. In general, though, rain and
thunderstorms have been occurring for much of the day over a large
portion of eastern Texas. This has led to a large area of NE and
EC TX that has been convectively overturned, with RAP analyzed
SBCINH of at least -200 j/kg. Therefore, the trend has been for
convection to gradually focus further west with time. Of
particular note is an outflow boundary that was evident on GOES-16
visible satellite near ACT around 21Z and confirmed by the
observation history with a wind shift and substantial temperature
drop. This outflow boundary is now situated from ACT-TPL-RWV and
new convection was initiating along the boundary. To the north, a
bow echo was pushing to the southeast. A considerable part of the
northern segment of the line should begin to encounter
progressively more stable air, and thus a trend of decay seems
likely. Nevertheless, some of these thunderstorms may begin to
affect areas that have already experienced heavy rain today. The
trailing portion of the bow echo and associated gust front,
oriented NW-SE as of 22Z, seems more likely to link up with the
aforementioned outflow boundary near I-35 and Waco and provide a
focus for more concentrated convection in C TX late this
afternoon. The strongest QPF signal on the 18Z HREF between 21-03Z
is generally in the I-35 corridor from Waco to near Austin and
including portions of Texas Hill Country. Additional thunderstorm
development in an environment characterized by strong instability
and PW around 1.7 to 1.8 inches (GPS observations) should support
rain rates reaching 2 in/hr at times. FFG is relatively high, but
if these rates can be sustained for a couple hours at any one
location, flash flooding will be possible.

A secondary hi-res model QPF signal was concentrated closer to
Houston. A slow-moving cluster of thunderstorms remains situated
from UTS-LFK and the major axis has drifted southeast only approx.
10 miles in the past hour. Additional scattered convection to the
west of Houston continues to lift north and merge into the
convective cluster, leading to a focused area of heavy rainfall
over SE TX. This process may continue into the evening hours given
strong instability in the inflow region and PW values pushing 2
inches (GPS obs). With the strong cold pool to the north, the
storms may not lock into one place for an extended period of time;
rather they should continue to gradually drift south or southeast
consistent with the Corfidi vectors around 5-10 knots from the
NNW. Therefore, the flash flood threat in southeast Texas would be
maximized if inflow bands of convection can become sufficiently
concentrated to lead to localized areas with a heavy rain duration
of at least 90 minutes, or the cluster drifts into more urbanized
areas (e.g. Houston metro area).

Lamers

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT...

[Cromagnum]

Looks like a bust for Houston and southward.

[ccbluewater]

Happy Father's Day to all the dads! I feel fortunate to have received 1.2" today IMBY in Cypress! Can atleast skip the first watering early this week now.