MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Watch cancelled for Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Madison and Washington Counties. All other Counties remain under a Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Saturday

Interesting. I figured the rain was pretty much over with since the front came through. I’m guessing it’s supposed to move back up?

A lot of concern for new development tonight moving out of Mexico into South/S Central Texas. Even NWS San Antonio/Austin decided to keep the Flash Flood Watch going until tomorrow evening.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 30s30 seconds ago

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Saturday for a large part of SE TX. Another round of storms could develop late tonight thru Sat morning or afternoon. If heavy rains fall on already saturated grounds, flash flooding can be expected. #txwx #houwx #glswx #bcswx

[srainhoutx]

For those wondering, the front is stalled right across Metro Houston. I briefly had NE breezes and DP dropped into the low 60's. But temperature and DP rebounded and winds are calm and that sticky feeling is back. The A/C has kicked back in as well

[Cromagnum]

For those wondering, the front is stalled right across Metro Houston. I briefly had NE breezes and DP dropped into the low 60's. But temperature and DP rebounded and winds are calm and that sticky feeling is back. The A/C has kicked back in as well

So translation: any impulses that roll through and hit the stalled front will dump rain?

[srainhoutx]

For those wondering, the front is stalled right across Metro Houston. I briefly had NE breezes and DP dropped into the low 60's. But temperature and DP rebounded and winds are calm and that sticky feeling is back. The A/C has kicked back in as well

So translation: any impulses that roll through and hit the stalled front will dump rain?

That's the concern. We may even see that stalled boundary try to retreat N as a warm front as a mid/upper level disturbance moves out of Mexico tonight/tomorrow as well as a weak surface low sliding along that boundary.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, my dew point has crept up from 67 a few hours ago to 72 now.

[Cpv17]

Yeah, my dew point has crept up from 67 a few hours ago to 72 now.

64 degree dew point here currently in Wharton. Feels pretty comfortable out.

[srainhoutx]

Friday 5:00 PM Update from Jeff:

Rainfall has continued to move off the coast and most of the area has not experienced rainfall since early afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary continues to linger over the area, but the post thunderstorm air mass remains fairly stable and has prevented any additional rainfall formation this afternoon. Models show various solutions tonight into Saturday with rainfall potential and additional storms that may develop toward sunrise on Saturday. Thinking is that much of the night will be calm before showers and storms start to develop near sunrise especially along and east of a line from Freeport to Livingston with the greatest potential likely near the coast and ENE into southern and eastern Harris County. Again there is some uncertainty on when storms will actually develop and where so this area may change some.

Rainfall Amounts:
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is likely SE of US 59 with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches under any cell training. Hourly rainfall rates should be much lower than the past few days with amounts of around .5 to 1.5 inches.

Hydro:
Grounds are saturated and watersheds continue to drain stormwater and the additional hours of dry weather this evening will continue help run-off trends this evening allowing watersheds to fall. Additional rainfall overnight could affect the Clear Creek watershed and that would be the most concern along with Armand Bayou due to their current sensitivity to additional rainfall.

Watersheds:

Overbanks:
Clear Creek: water is overbanks from FM 528 to I-45, but falling and will be back within banks this evening
Upper Spring Creek: water is falling bank with banks
Upper Little Cypress Creek: water is holding steady overbanks
West Fork of the San Jacinto River: river has crested and is falling bank within banks.

All other watersheds are within banks and falling.

Addicks Reservoir:
Pool is forecast to rise to 88.3 ft. Current stage is 86.83 ft

Barker Reservoir:
Pool is forecast to rise to 90.0 ft. Current stage is 86.31ft

Flood gates are closed and will likely remain closed until Sunday.

[djmike]

Yeah that front is draped right over Houston and Beaumont!

[jasons2k]

So, going back to yesterday’s discussion — overnight tonight, the LLJ was supposed re-establish and crank again. That would imply the front would drift a little further back north.

So, with the complex pushing out into the Gulf, is that thinking out the window, or so we still expect the LLJ to get re-established tonight?

That’s the key to all this - if the LLJ can get re-established and suck-in that unstable air.

[Texashawk]

Starting to pop around Victoria. Is this the development that is expected later?

[davidiowx]

So, going back to yesterday’s discussion — overnight tonight, the LLJ was supposed re-establish and crank again. That would imply the front would drift a little further back north.

So, with the complex pushing out into the Gulf, is that thinking out the window, or so we still expect the LLJ to get re-established tonight?

That’s the key to all this - if the LLJ can get re-established and suck-in that unstable air.

It feels like this is starting outside. It was nice with much less humidity earlier and now it definitely feels like it is creeping back up here in Richmond.

[jasons2k]

My winds are still out of the NE, and the low clouds are coming in from the ENE, so the front is still south of here. For now..

[Cromagnum]

I guess if anything happens tonight it's gonna be early AM Saturday

[jasons2k]

Totally clear skies here. Feels fall-ish.

[jasons2k]

Things are heating up near San Antonio...

[djmike]

Quiet in here tonight. Looks like storms to our sw firing off and that cod be our Next event. Something tells me we will see more showers but nothing to the extent of the last two days...

[Katdaddy]

A peaceful SE TX and Upper TX Coast evening with beautiful crespuclar rays. Priceless.

[Rip76]

Starting to see some showers popping up near Bay City.

[srainhoutx]

Saturday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall threat remains mainly SE of US 59 today.

As another strong disturbance moves out of Mexico and across TX today, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this morning. It appears the greatest chances and more concentrated activity may be along the coast or just slightly inland, but generally any location south and east of US 59 will be at risk of additional heavy rainfall today. The timing has pushed back slightly with development starting to become likely over the next few hours and then lasting into the early to mid afternoon hours before activity moves eastward and off the coast late this afternoon.

Rainfall Totals:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible especially SE of US 59 today with isolated higher amounts possibly near 5 inches. Much of the rainfall amounts will depend on where storms develop. If storms develop on the coast or offshore, the heaviest rains will be south of the area, but if they develop a bit more inland that could bring heavy rainfall as far inland as US 59. Rainfall rates should be a bit more manageable today compared to Tuesday and Thursday with hourly rates closer to 1-2 inches instead of the 3-5 inches that we have previously experienced this week.

Watersheds:
All creeks and bayous in Harris County have returned to within their banks overnight and this morning, but several remain elevated and additional heavy rainfall could result in additional overbanks flooding today. The watersheds that remain near bankfull this morning include:

Spring Creek
Little Cypress Creek
Clear Creek
Cedar Bayou
West Fork and East Fork of the San Jacinto River
San Jacinto River below Lake Houston